Premier League·Regular Season - 14·
Premier League·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
28%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.062.36safe0.33–2.270.21–1.920.54–4.19safer0.08–2.520.00–2.140.06–4.67
Shots on target
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.704.138.82safe2.84–6.562.38–5.875.22–12.43safer2.35–7.051.92–6.334.26–13.38
Total shots
68%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6411.7926.43safe10.71–18.568.23–15.3618.94–33.92safer9.62–19.657.27–16.3216.89–35.97
Shots in box
64%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction9.077.1616.22safe6.13–12.014.47–9.8410.60–21.85safer5.30–12.843.74–10.579.03–23.41
Blocked shots
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.012.766.78safe2.13–5.901.11–4.423.24–10.31safer1.59–6.440.62–4.912.21–11.35
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.894.5510.44safe3.68–8.102.55–6.556.23–14.66safer3.10–8.682.02–7.085.12–15.76
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction55.1543.92safe48.36–61.9437.13–50.70safer46.69–63.6135.46–52.37
Passes
85%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction452326778safe385–519260–393645–912safer367–537242–410609–948
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction67.3366.51safe63.30–71.3662.19–70.83safer62.01–72.6560.88–72.14
Fouls
30%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5717.0631.64safe11.74–17.4114.12–20.0125.85–37.42safer10.98–18.1713.37–20.7524.35–38.92
Offsides
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.983.68safe0.54–2.860.89–3.071.42–5.93safer0.23–3.160.60–3.360.83–6.52
Yellow cards
27%
17%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.163.015.17safe1.11–3.211.88–4.142.99–7.35safer0.84–3.481.59–4.432.43–7.90
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.160.28safe0.00–0.280.00–0.340.00–0.63safer0.00–0.430.00–0.480.00–0.91
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.863.306.16safe1.42–4.291.75–4.863.17–9.15safer1.03–4.681.32–5.282.35–9.96
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.33–2.27 0.08–2.52 | 1.06 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.14 | 2.36 0.54–4.19 0.06–4.67 | 42% 28% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.70 2.84–6.56 2.35–7.05 | 4.13 2.38–5.87 1.92–6.33 | 8.82 5.22–12.43 4.26–13.38 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 14.64 10.71–18.56 9.62–19.65 | 11.79 8.23–15.36 7.27–16.32 | 26.43 18.94–33.92 16.89–35.97 | 68% 26% |
| Shots in box | 9.07 6.13–12.01 5.30–12.84 | 7.16 4.47–9.84 3.74–10.57 | 16.22 10.60–21.85 9.03–23.41 | 64% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 4.01 2.13–5.90 1.59–6.44 | 2.76 1.11–4.42 0.62–4.91 | 6.78 3.24–10.31 2.21–11.35 | 61% 14% 25% |
| Corners | 5.89 3.68–8.10 3.10–8.68 | 4.55 2.55–6.55 2.02–7.08 | 10.44 6.23–14.66 5.12–15.76 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 55.15 48.36–61.94 46.69–63.61 | 43.92 37.13–50.70 35.46–52.37 | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 452 385–519 367–537 | 326 260–393 242–410 | 778 645–912 609–948 | 85% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.33 63.30–71.36 62.01–72.65 | 66.51 62.19–70.83 60.88–72.14 | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 14.57 11.74–17.41 10.98–18.17 | 17.06 14.12–20.01 13.37–20.75 | 31.64 25.85–37.42 24.35–38.92 | 30% 64% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.54–2.86 0.23–3.16 | 1.98 0.89–3.07 0.60–3.36 | 3.68 1.42–5.93 0.83–6.52 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.16 1.11–3.21 0.84–3.48 | 3.01 1.88–4.14 1.59–4.43 | 5.17 2.99–7.35 2.43–7.90 | 27% 17% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.16 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.48 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.86 1.42–4.29 1.03–4.68 | 3.30 1.75–4.86 1.32–5.28 | 6.16 3.17–9.15 2.35–9.96 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+