Premier League·Regular Season - 20·
Premier League·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
27%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.202.42safe0.25–2.190.35–2.060.60–4.25safer0.00–2.440.12–2.290.12–4.73
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.683.908.57safe2.81–6.542.15–5.644.97–12.18safer2.32–7.031.69–6.104.01–13.13
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7112.1726.88safe10.78–18.638.61–15.7319.39–34.36safer9.69–19.727.65–16.6917.34–36.41
Shots in box
59%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction9.057.5816.63safe6.10–11.994.90–10.2611.00–22.25safer5.27–12.824.16–11.009.44–23.82
Blocked shots
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.543.136.68safe1.66–5.431.48–4.793.14–10.21safer1.12–5.970.99–5.282.11–11.25
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.984.569.53safe2.76–7.192.56–6.565.32–13.75safer2.19–7.762.02–7.094.21–14.85
Possession %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction46.7854.99safe39.99–53.5748.21–61.78safer38.32–55.2446.54–63.45
Passes
27%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction350422772safe283–418355–488639–906safer265–436338–506603–942
Pass accuracy %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction61.7169.84safe57.68–65.7465.51–74.16safer56.39–67.0364.20–75.47
Fouls
60%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2914.4530.74safe13.46–19.1311.50–17.3924.96–36.52safer12.70–19.8910.75–18.1423.45–38.03
Offsides
45%
22%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.603.47safe0.71–3.030.50–2.691.22–5.72safer0.41–3.330.21–2.980.63–6.31
Yellow cards
36%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.582.885.47safe1.54–3.631.75–4.013.29–7.64safer1.27–3.901.46–4.302.73–8.20
Red cards
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.200.33safe0.00–0.290.01–0.380.00–0.67safer0.00–0.440.00–0.520.00–0.96
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.823.306.12safe1.38–4.251.75–4.863.13–9.11safer0.99–4.641.32–5.292.32–9.93
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.19 0.00–2.44 | 1.20 0.35–2.06 0.12–2.29 | 2.42 0.60–4.25 0.12–4.73 | 37% 27% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.68 2.81–6.54 2.32–7.03 | 3.90 2.15–5.64 1.69–6.10 | 8.57 4.97–12.18 4.01–13.13 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 14.71 10.78–18.63 9.69–19.72 | 12.17 8.61–15.73 7.65–16.69 | 26.88 19.39–34.36 17.34–36.41 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 9.05 6.10–11.99 5.27–12.82 | 7.58 4.90–10.26 4.16–11.00 | 16.63 11.00–22.25 9.44–23.82 | 59% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.66–5.43 1.12–5.97 | 3.13 1.48–4.79 0.99–5.28 | 6.68 3.14–10.21 2.11–11.25 | 48% 16% 36% |
| Corners | 4.98 2.76–7.19 2.19–7.76 | 4.56 2.56–6.56 2.02–7.09 | 9.53 5.32–13.75 4.21–14.85 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 46.78 39.99–53.57 38.32–55.24 | 54.99 48.21–61.78 46.54–63.45 | — | 29% 67% |
| Passes | 350 283–418 265–436 | 422 355–488 338–506 | 772 639–906 603–942 | 27% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.71 57.68–65.74 56.39–67.03 | 69.84 65.51–74.16 64.20–75.47 | — | 13% 84% |
| Fouls | 16.29 13.46–19.13 12.70–19.89 | 14.45 11.50–17.39 10.75–18.14 | 30.74 24.96–36.52 23.45–38.03 | 60% 34% |
| Offsides | 1.87 0.71–3.03 0.41–3.33 | 1.60 0.50–2.69 0.21–2.98 | 3.47 1.22–5.72 0.63–6.31 | 45% 22% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 2.58 1.54–3.63 1.27–3.90 | 2.88 1.75–4.01 1.46–4.30 | 5.47 3.29–7.64 2.73–8.20 | 36% 17% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.20 0.01–0.38 0.00–0.52 | 0.33 0.00–0.67 0.00–0.96 | 74% 16% |
| GK saves | 2.82 1.38–4.25 0.99–4.64 | 3.30 1.75–4.86 1.32–5.29 | 6.12 3.13–9.11 2.32–9.93 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+