Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
27%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.122.44safe0.35–2.290.26–1.970.62–4.26safer0.10–2.540.04–2.200.14–4.74
Shots on target
53%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.563.858.41safe2.70–6.422.11–5.594.81–12.02safer2.21–6.911.64–6.063.85–12.97
Total shots
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9911.7926.78safe11.07–18.918.22–15.3519.29–34.26safer9.97–20.017.26–16.3117.24–36.31
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction8.787.0115.79safe5.84–11.734.33–9.6910.17–21.42safer5.01–12.563.59–10.438.60–22.98
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.792.946.73safe1.91–5.681.29–4.593.20–10.27safer1.37–6.220.80–5.092.16–11.30
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.614.029.63safe3.40–7.832.02–6.025.42–13.85safer2.82–8.401.49–6.564.31–14.95
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction52.2147.17safe45.42–59.0040.38–53.95safer43.75–60.6738.71–55.62
Passes
73%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction456381837safe389–523315–447703–970safer370–541297–465667–1006
Pass accuracy %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction67.1467.04safe63.11–71.1762.72–71.36safer61.82–72.4761.41–72.67
Fouls
44%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5714.8929.46safe11.73–17.4111.94–17.8323.68–35.24safer10.98–18.1711.19–18.5822.17–36.74
Offsides
38%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.713.37safe0.50–2.820.62–2.811.12–5.63safer0.20–3.120.33–3.090.53–6.22
Yellow cards
44%
18%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.622.445.06safe1.58–3.671.31–3.572.89–7.24safer1.31–3.941.02–3.862.33–7.80
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.140.26safe0.00–0.290.00–0.320.00–0.61safer0.00–0.440.00–0.460.00–0.89
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.295.91safe1.18–4.051.74–4.852.92–8.90safer0.79–4.441.31–5.272.11–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.12 0.26–1.97 0.04–2.20 | 2.44 0.62–4.26 0.14–4.74 | 41% 27% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.56 2.70–6.42 2.21–6.91 | 3.85 2.11–5.59 1.64–6.06 | 8.41 4.81–12.02 3.85–12.97 | 53% 14% 34% |
| Total shots | 14.99 11.07–18.91 9.97–20.01 | 11.79 8.22–15.35 7.26–16.31 | 26.78 19.29–34.26 17.24–36.31 | 70% 24% |
| Shots in box | 8.78 5.84–11.73 5.01–12.56 | 7.01 4.33–9.69 3.59–10.43 | 15.79 10.17–21.42 8.60–22.98 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 1.91–5.68 1.37–6.22 | 2.94 1.29–4.59 0.80–5.09 | 6.73 3.20–10.27 2.16–11.30 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.61 3.40–7.83 2.82–8.40 | 4.02 2.02–6.02 1.49–6.56 | 9.63 5.42–13.85 4.31–14.95 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 52.21 45.42–59.00 43.75–60.67 | 47.17 40.38–53.95 38.71–55.62 | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 456 389–523 370–541 | 381 315–447 297–465 | 837 703–970 667–1006 | 73% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.14 63.11–71.17 61.82–72.47 | 67.04 62.72–71.36 61.41–72.67 | — | 48% 47% |
| Fouls | 14.57 11.73–17.41 10.98–18.17 | 14.89 11.94–17.83 11.19–18.58 | 29.46 23.68–35.24 22.17–36.74 | 44% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 1.71 0.62–2.81 0.33–3.09 | 3.37 1.12–5.63 0.53–6.22 | 38% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.62 1.58–3.67 1.31–3.94 | 2.44 1.31–3.57 1.02–3.86 | 5.06 2.89–7.24 2.33–7.80 | 44% 18% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.18–4.05 0.79–4.44 | 3.29 1.74–4.85 1.31–5.27 | 5.91 2.92–8.90 2.11–9.71 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.