Premier League·Regular Season - 14·
Premier League·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.410.823.23safe1.44–3.370.00–1.671.40–5.05safer1.19–3.630.00–1.900.92–5.53
Shots on target
88%
homeawaytotalprediction7.152.9410.09safe5.29–9.011.19–4.686.48–13.69safer4.80–9.500.73–5.145.53–14.65
Total shots
98%
homeawaytotalprediction18.848.2427.08safe14.92–22.764.68–11.8019.59–34.57safer13.82–23.863.72–12.7617.54–36.62
Shots in box
94%
homeawaytotalprediction12.125.2817.40safe9.18–15.062.60–7.9611.77–23.02safer8.35–15.891.86–8.7010.21–24.59
Blocked shots
81%
homeawaytotalprediction4.952.147.09safe3.07–6.830.49–3.803.56–10.63safer2.52–7.370.00–4.292.52–11.66
Corners
87%
homeawaytotalprediction7.483.3010.78safe5.27–9.691.30–5.306.56–14.99safer4.69–10.270.76–5.835.46–16.10
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction61.3738.52safe54.58–68.1631.74–45.31safer52.91–69.8330.07–46.98
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction535324859safe468–602258–390725–993safer450–620240–408690–1028
Pass accuracy %
81%
15%
homeawayprediction74.6967.32safe70.66–78.7263.00–71.64safer69.37–80.0161.69–72.95
Fouls
22%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3815.9928.37safe9.54–15.2213.05–18.9422.59–34.15safer8.79–15.9712.30–19.6921.09–35.66
Offsides
54%
21%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.393.50safe0.95–3.270.30–2.481.24–5.75safer0.65–3.570.01–2.770.65–6.34
Yellow cards
18%
15%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction1.793.285.07safe0.74–2.842.15–4.412.89–7.25safer0.48–3.111.86–4.702.33–7.81
Red cards
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.180.27safe0.00–0.250.00–0.360.00–0.62safer0.00–0.400.00–0.500.00–0.90
GK saves
14%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction2.054.176.22safe0.61–3.482.61–5.723.22–9.21safer0.22–3.872.19–6.152.41–10.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.41 1.44–3.37 1.19–3.63 | 0.82 0.00–1.67 0.00–1.90 | 3.23 1.40–5.05 0.92–5.53 | 72% 17% |
| Shots on target | 7.15 5.29–9.01 4.80–9.50 | 2.94 1.19–4.68 0.73–5.14 | 10.09 6.48–13.69 5.53–14.65 | 88% |
| Total shots | 18.84 14.92–22.76 13.82–23.86 | 8.24 4.68–11.80 3.72–12.76 | 27.08 19.59–34.57 17.54–36.62 | 98% |
| Shots in box | 12.12 9.18–15.06 8.35–15.89 | 5.28 2.60–7.96 1.86–8.70 | 17.40 11.77–23.02 10.21–24.59 | 94% |
| Blocked shots | 4.95 3.07–6.83 2.52–7.37 | 2.14 0.49–3.80 0.00–4.29 | 7.09 3.56–10.63 2.52–11.66 | 81% |
| Corners | 7.48 5.27–9.69 4.69–10.27 | 3.30 1.30–5.30 0.76–5.83 | 10.78 6.56–14.99 5.46–16.10 | 87% |
| Possession % | 61.37 54.58–68.16 52.91–69.83 | 38.52 31.74–45.31 30.07–46.98 | — | 90% |
| Passes | 535 468–602 450–620 | 324 258–390 240–408 | 859 725–993 690–1028 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.69 70.66–78.72 69.37–80.01 | 67.32 63.00–71.64 61.69–72.95 | — | 81% 15% |
| Fouls | 12.38 9.54–15.22 8.79–15.97 | 15.99 13.05–18.94 12.30–19.69 | 28.37 22.59–34.15 21.09–35.66 | 22% 72% |
| Offsides | 2.11 0.95–3.27 0.65–3.57 | 1.39 0.30–2.48 0.01–2.77 | 3.50 1.24–5.75 0.65–6.34 | 54% 21% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.84 0.48–3.11 | 3.28 2.15–4.41 1.86–4.70 | 5.07 2.89–7.25 2.33–7.81 | 18% 15% 67% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.18 0.00–0.36 0.00–0.50 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 78% 15% |
| GK saves | 2.05 0.61–3.48 0.22–3.87 | 4.17 2.61–5.72 2.19–6.15 | 6.22 3.22–9.21 2.41–10.02 | 14% 74% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.