Premier League·Regular Season - 19·
Premier League·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
18%
21%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction0.971.962.93safe0.00–1.941.10–2.811.10–4.75safer0.00–2.190.87–3.040.62–5.23
Shots on target
18%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction3.385.538.91safe1.52–5.253.79–7.275.31–12.52safer1.03–5.743.32–7.744.35–13.48
Total shots
16%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0814.5424.63safe6.16–14.0110.98–18.1117.14–32.12safer5.07–15.1010.02–19.0715.09–34.17
Shots in box
14%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.069.9015.96safe3.12–9.007.21–12.5810.33–21.58safer2.29–9.836.48–13.318.77–23.15
Blocked shots
29%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.983.926.90safe1.10–4.862.27–5.583.37–10.44safer0.55–5.411.78–6.072.33–11.47
Corners
26%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.945.399.33safe1.72–6.153.39–7.395.11–13.54safer1.15–6.732.86–7.924.01–14.65
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction41.0359.64safe34.24–47.8252.86–66.43safer32.57–49.4951.18–68.10
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction347491837safe279–414424–557704–971safer261–432407–575668–1007
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction62.3376.34safe58.30–66.3672.02–80.67safer57.01–67.6570.71–81.97
Fouls
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction17.0213.5730.59safe14.19–19.8610.62–16.5124.81–36.37safer13.43–20.629.87–17.2623.30–37.88
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.863.54safe0.52–2.840.77–2.951.29–5.79safer0.22–3.140.48–3.240.70–6.38
Yellow cards
44%
18%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.732.535.25safe1.68–3.771.40–3.663.08–7.43safer1.41–4.041.11–3.952.52–7.99
Red cards
17%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction0.220.130.34safe0.05–0.380.00–0.320.00–0.69safer0.00–0.530.00–0.450.00–0.98
GK saves
59%
16%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.432.395.81safe1.99–4.860.83–3.942.82–8.81safer1.60–5.250.40–4.372.01–9.62
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.97 0.00–1.94 0.00–2.19 | 1.96 1.10–2.81 0.87–3.04 | 2.93 1.10–4.75 0.62–5.23 | 18% 21% 60% |
| Shots on target | 3.38 1.52–5.25 1.03–5.74 | 5.53 3.79–7.27 3.32–7.74 | 8.91 5.31–12.52 4.35–13.48 | 18% 71% |
| Total shots | 10.08 6.16–14.01 5.07–15.10 | 14.54 10.98–18.11 10.02–19.07 | 24.63 17.14–32.12 15.09–34.17 | 16% 79% |
| Shots in box | 6.06 3.12–9.00 2.29–9.83 | 9.90 7.21–12.58 6.48–13.31 | 15.96 10.33–21.58 8.77–23.15 | 14% 80% |
| Blocked shots | 2.98 1.10–4.86 0.55–5.41 | 3.92 2.27–5.58 1.78–6.07 | 6.90 3.37–10.44 2.33–11.47 | 29% 15% 57% |
| Corners | 3.94 1.72–6.15 1.15–6.73 | 5.39 3.39–7.39 2.86–7.92 | 9.33 5.11–13.54 4.01–14.65 | 26% 62% |
| Possession % | 41.03 34.24–47.82 32.57–49.49 | 59.64 52.86–66.43 51.18–68.10 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 347 279–414 261–432 | 491 424–557 407–575 | 837 704–971 668–1007 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.33 58.30–66.36 57.01–67.65 | 76.34 72.02–80.67 70.71–81.97 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 17.02 14.19–19.86 13.43–20.62 | 13.57 10.62–16.51 9.87–17.26 | 30.59 24.81–36.37 23.30–37.88 | 70% 24% |
| Offsides | 1.68 0.52–2.84 0.22–3.14 | 1.86 0.77–2.95 0.48–3.24 | 3.54 1.29–5.79 0.70–6.38 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.73 1.68–3.77 1.41–4.04 | 2.53 1.40–3.66 1.11–3.95 | 5.25 3.08–7.43 2.52–7.99 | 44% 18% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.22 0.05–0.38 0.00–0.53 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.34 0.00–0.69 0.00–0.98 | 17% 73% |
| GK saves | 3.43 1.99–4.86 1.60–5.25 | 2.39 0.83–3.94 0.40–4.37 | 5.81 2.82–8.81 2.01–9.62 | 59% 16% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.