Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
27%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.312.55safe0.28–2.210.45–2.160.73–4.37safer0.02–2.460.22–2.390.25–4.85
Shots on target
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.363.678.03safe2.50–6.231.92–5.414.43–11.64safer2.01–6.721.46–5.873.47–12.59
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9711.8824.85safe9.04–16.898.32–15.4417.36–32.33safer7.95–17.987.36–16.4015.31–34.38
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction8.157.5215.68safe5.21–11.094.84–10.2110.05–21.30safer4.38–11.924.11–10.948.49–22.87
Blocked shots
44%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.563.477.04safe1.68–5.451.82–5.123.50–10.57safer1.14–5.991.33–5.622.46–11.61
Corners
50%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.874.359.22safe2.66–7.092.35–6.355.01–13.44safer2.09–7.661.82–6.883.90–14.54
Possession %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction47.4551.98safe40.66–54.2445.19–58.76safer38.99–55.9143.52–60.43
Passes
46%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction394405799safe327–462338–471665–933safer309–480321–489630–968
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction62.9767.58safe58.95–67.0063.25–71.90safer57.65–68.3061.94–73.21
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9813.3327.32safe11.15–16.8210.39–16.2821.53–33.10safer10.39–17.589.64–17.0320.03–34.60
Offsides
33%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.743.25safe0.34–2.660.65–2.840.99–5.50safer0.04–2.970.36–3.130.40–6.09
Yellow cards
42%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.773.66safe0.84–2.940.64–2.901.49–5.84safer0.58–3.210.35–3.190.93–6.40
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
36%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.522.845.36safe1.08–3.951.29–4.402.37–8.35safer0.69–4.340.86–4.821.56–9.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.28–2.21 0.02–2.46 | 1.31 0.45–2.16 0.22–2.39 | 2.55 0.73–4.37 0.25–4.85 | 35% 27% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.36 2.50–6.23 2.01–6.72 | 3.67 1.92–5.41 1.46–5.87 | 8.03 4.43–11.64 3.47–12.59 | 53% 14% 33% |
| Total shots | 12.97 9.04–16.89 7.95–17.98 | 11.88 8.32–15.44 7.36–16.40 | 24.85 17.36–32.33 15.31–34.38 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 8.15 5.21–11.09 4.38–11.92 | 7.52 4.84–10.21 4.11–10.94 | 15.68 10.05–21.30 8.49–22.87 | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.56 1.68–5.45 1.14–5.99 | 3.47 1.82–5.12 1.33–5.62 | 7.04 3.50–10.57 2.46–11.61 | 44% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 4.87 2.66–7.09 2.09–7.66 | 4.35 2.35–6.35 1.82–6.88 | 9.22 5.01–13.44 3.90–14.54 | 50% 13% 37% |
| Possession % | 47.45 40.66–54.24 38.99–55.91 | 51.98 45.19–58.76 43.52–60.43 | — | 37% 58% |
| Passes | 394 327–462 309–480 | 405 338–471 321–489 | 799 665–933 630–968 | 46% 53% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.97 58.95–67.00 57.65–68.30 | 67.58 63.25–71.90 61.94–73.21 | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 13.98 11.15–16.82 10.39–17.58 | 13.33 10.39–16.28 9.64–17.03 | 27.32 21.53–33.10 20.03–34.60 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.34–2.66 0.04–2.97 | 1.74 0.65–2.84 0.36–3.13 | 3.25 0.99–5.50 0.40–6.09 | 33% 23% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 0.84–2.94 0.58–3.21 | 1.77 0.64–2.90 0.35–3.19 | 3.66 1.49–5.84 0.93–6.40 | 42% 22% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.52 1.08–3.95 0.69–4.34 | 2.84 1.29–4.40 0.86–4.82 | 5.36 2.37–8.35 1.56–9.17 | 36% 18% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.