Premier League·Regular Season - 27·
Premier League·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
16%
21%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction0.841.932.77safe0.00–1.811.08–2.790.95–4.59safer0.00–2.060.85–3.010.47–5.07
Shots on target
23%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.365.028.39safe1.50–5.233.28–6.774.78–11.99safer1.01–5.722.82–7.233.83–12.95
Total shots
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1513.8625.02safe7.23–15.0810.30–17.4317.53–32.50safer6.14–16.179.34–18.3815.48–34.55
Shots in box
16%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction6.069.5415.60safe3.12–9.006.86–12.229.97–21.22safer2.29–9.836.12–12.958.41–22.79
Blocked shots
24%
14%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.774.126.90safe0.89–4.662.47–5.783.36–10.43safer0.35–5.201.98–6.272.33–11.47
Corners
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.405.129.52safe2.18–6.613.12–7.125.31–13.73safer1.61–7.182.59–7.664.20–14.84
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction37.3063.01safe30.51–44.0956.22–69.79safer28.84–45.7654.55–71.46
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction303522825safe236–370456–589691–959safer218–388438–606656–994
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction60.9778.75safe56.94–65.0074.43–83.07safer55.65–66.2973.12–84.38
Fouls
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1111.9928.10safe13.28–18.959.05–14.9422.32–33.89safer12.52–19.718.30–15.6820.82–35.39
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.873.59safe0.56–2.880.78–2.961.34–5.84safer0.26–3.180.49–3.250.75–6.43
Yellow cards
49%
19%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.462.014.47safe1.41–3.510.88–3.142.29–6.65safer1.14–3.770.59–3.431.73–7.20
Red cards
13%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.130.29safe0.00–0.320.00–0.310.00–0.63safer0.00–0.470.00–0.440.00–0.92
GK saves
55%
16%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.282.435.71safe1.84–4.710.87–3.992.71–8.70safer1.45–5.100.45–4.411.90–9.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.84 0.00–1.81 0.00–2.06 | 1.93 1.08–2.79 0.85–3.01 | 2.77 0.95–4.59 0.47–5.07 | 16% 21% 63% |
| Shots on target | 3.36 1.50–5.23 1.01–5.72 | 5.02 3.28–6.77 2.82–7.23 | 8.39 4.78–11.99 3.83–12.95 | 23% 65% |
| Total shots | 11.15 7.23–15.08 6.14–16.17 | 13.86 10.30–17.43 9.34–18.38 | 25.02 17.53–32.50 15.48–34.55 | 26% 67% |
| Shots in box | 6.06 3.12–9.00 2.29–9.83 | 9.54 6.86–12.22 6.12–12.95 | 15.60 9.97–21.22 8.41–22.79 | 16% 78% |
| Blocked shots | 2.77 0.89–4.66 0.35–5.20 | 4.12 2.47–5.78 1.98–6.27 | 6.90 3.36–10.43 2.33–11.47 | 24% 14% 63% |
| Corners | 4.40 2.18–6.61 1.61–7.18 | 5.12 3.12–7.12 2.59–7.66 | 9.52 5.31–13.73 4.20–14.84 | 34% 53% |
| Possession % | 37.30 30.51–44.09 28.84–45.76 | 63.01 56.22–69.79 54.55–71.46 | — | 93% |
| Passes | 303 236–370 218–388 | 522 456–589 438–606 | 825 691–959 656–994 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.97 56.94–65.00 55.65–66.29 | 78.75 74.43–83.07 73.12–84.38 | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 16.11 13.28–18.95 12.52–19.71 | 11.99 9.05–14.94 8.30–15.68 | 28.10 22.32–33.89 20.82–35.39 | 75% 19% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.56–2.88 0.26–3.18 | 1.87 0.78–2.96 0.49–3.25 | 3.59 1.34–5.84 0.75–6.43 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.46 1.41–3.51 1.14–3.77 | 2.01 0.88–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 4.47 2.29–6.65 1.73–7.20 | 49% 19% 32% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.29 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.92 | 13% 77% |
| GK saves | 3.28 1.84–4.71 1.45–5.10 | 2.43 0.87–3.99 0.45–4.41 | 5.71 2.71–8.70 1.90–9.51 | 55% 16% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.