Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.192.48safe0.32–2.260.34–2.050.66–4.31safer0.07–2.510.11–2.280.18–4.79
Shots on target
40%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.224.488.70safe2.36–6.092.74–6.225.10–12.31safer1.87–6.582.27–6.694.14–13.26
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7613.2126.96safe9.83–17.689.64–16.7719.48–34.45safer8.74–18.778.69–17.7317.43–36.50
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction7.967.9415.90safe5.02–10.905.26–10.6210.28–21.52safer4.19–11.734.52–11.368.71–23.09
Blocked shots
46%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.252.966.21safe1.37–5.131.31–4.612.68–9.75safer0.83–5.680.81–5.111.64–10.78
Corners
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.934.489.41safe2.71–7.142.48–6.485.19–13.62safer2.14–7.711.95–7.014.09–14.73
Possession %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction56.7843.04safe49.99–63.5736.25–49.82safer48.32–65.2434.58–51.49
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction477336813safe410–544270–403680–947safer392–562252–420644–983
Pass accuracy %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction65.9965.86safe61.96–70.0261.54–70.19safer60.67–71.3160.23–71.50
Fouls
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2916.1530.44safe11.45–17.1313.20–19.0924.65–36.22safer10.70–17.8812.45–19.8423.15–37.72
Offsides
30%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.522.003.51safe0.36–2.680.90–3.091.26–5.77safer0.06–2.980.61–3.380.67–6.36
Yellow cards
41%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.622.645.27safe1.57–3.671.51–3.773.09–7.44safer1.31–3.941.22–4.062.53–8.00
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.140.28safe0.00–0.310.00–0.320.00–0.63safer0.00–0.460.00–0.460.00–0.91
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.922.965.88safe1.48–4.351.41–4.522.89–8.87safer1.09–4.740.98–4.952.08–9.69
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.32–2.26 0.07–2.51 | 1.19 0.34–2.05 0.11–2.28 | 2.48 0.66–4.31 0.18–4.79 | 39% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.22 2.36–6.09 1.87–6.58 | 4.48 2.74–6.22 2.27–6.69 | 8.70 5.10–12.31 4.14–13.26 | 40% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 13.76 9.83–17.68 8.74–18.77 | 13.21 9.64–16.77 8.69–17.73 | 26.96 19.48–34.45 17.43–36.50 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 7.96 5.02–10.90 4.19–11.73 | 7.94 5.26–10.62 4.52–11.36 | 15.90 10.28–21.52 8.71–23.09 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.25 1.37–5.13 0.83–5.68 | 2.96 1.31–4.61 0.81–5.11 | 6.21 2.68–9.75 1.64–10.78 | 46% 16% 37% |
| Corners | 4.93 2.71–7.14 2.14–7.71 | 4.48 2.48–6.48 1.95–7.01 | 9.41 5.19–13.62 4.09–14.73 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 56.78 49.99–63.57 48.32–65.24 | 43.04 36.25–49.82 34.58–51.49 | — | 77% 19% |
| Passes | 477 410–544 392–562 | 336 270–403 252–420 | 813 680–947 644–983 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.99 61.96–70.02 60.67–71.31 | 65.86 61.54–70.19 60.23–71.50 | — | 48% 47% |
| Fouls | 14.29 11.45–17.13 10.70–17.88 | 16.15 13.20–19.09 12.45–19.84 | 30.44 24.65–36.22 23.15–37.72 | 33% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.36–2.68 0.06–2.98 | 2.00 0.90–3.09 0.61–3.38 | 3.51 1.26–5.77 0.67–6.36 | 30% 22% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 2.62 1.57–3.67 1.31–3.94 | 2.64 1.51–3.77 1.22–4.06 | 5.27 3.09–7.44 2.53–8.00 | 41% 18% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.92 1.48–4.35 1.09–4.74 | 2.96 1.41–4.52 0.98–4.95 | 5.88 2.89–8.87 2.08–9.69 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.