Bundesliga·Regular Season - 6·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Josef Spurny · Austria
Goals
39%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.212.50safe0.33–2.260.35–2.070.68–4.33safer0.07–2.520.10–2.310.18–4.83actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.133.857.97safe2.27–5.982.14–5.554.41–11.54safer1.77–6.481.67–6.023.44–12.50actual4.005.009.00
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1812.6525.83safe9.48–16.899.27–16.0318.75–32.92safer8.45–17.928.34–16.9616.79–34.88actual15.008.0023.00
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction8.557.1815.73safe6.04–11.074.88–9.4810.92–20.55safer5.17–11.934.08–10.289.25–22.21actual9.007.0016.00
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.912.996.90safe2.32–5.491.58–4.413.90–9.90safer1.79–6.021.09–4.892.88–10.92actual4.000.004.00
Corners
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.004.469.46safe2.80–7.212.48–6.435.28–13.64safer2.20–7.801.94–6.974.14–14.78actual6.002.008.00
Possession %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction54.5145.74safe48.19–60.8339.42–52.05safer46.60–62.4237.82–53.65actual62.0038.00
Passes
76%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction453369823safe388–518305–434693–953safer370–536287–452658–988actual450278728
Pass accuracy %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction79.5275.74safe75.30–83.7371.24–80.25safer74.00–85.0469.91–81.58
Fouls
42%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2611.7022.97safe8.41–14.128.76–14.6517.16–28.77safer7.52–15.017.84–15.5615.36–30.57actual5.0021.0026.00
Offsides
48%
23%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.373.17safe0.59–3.010.20–2.530.80–5.54safer0.25–3.350.00–2.860.12–6.22actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
31%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.973.51safe0.49–2.600.85–3.091.34–5.69safer0.22–2.880.56–3.380.78–6.25actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.552.745.29safe1.14–3.971.19–4.302.32–8.26safer0.75–4.360.76–4.731.50–9.08actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.33–2.26 0.07–2.52 | 1.00 | 1.21 0.35–2.07 0.10–2.31 | 2.00 | 2.50 0.68–4.33 0.18–4.83 | 3.00 | 39% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.13 2.27–5.98 1.77–6.48 | 4.00 | 3.85 2.14–5.55 1.67–6.02 | 5.00 | 7.97 4.41–11.54 3.44–12.50 | 9.00 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 13.18 9.48–16.89 8.45–17.92 | 15.00 | 12.65 9.27–16.03 8.34–16.96 | 8.00 | 25.83 18.75–32.92 16.79–34.88 | 23.00 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.55 6.04–11.07 5.17–11.93 | 9.00 | 7.18 4.88–9.48 4.08–10.28 | 7.00 | 15.73 10.92–20.55 9.25–22.21 | 16.00 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.91 2.32–5.49 1.79–6.02 | 4.00 | 2.99 1.58–4.41 1.09–4.89 | 0.00 | 6.90 3.90–9.90 2.88–10.92 | 4.00 | 56% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 5.00 2.80–7.21 2.20–7.80 | 6.00 | 4.46 2.48–6.43 1.94–6.97 | 2.00 | 9.46 5.28–13.64 4.14–14.78 | 8.00 | 50% 37% |
| Possession % | 54.51 48.19–60.83 46.60–62.42 | 62.00 | 45.74 39.42–52.05 37.82–53.65 | 38.00 | — | — | 69% 27% |
| Passes | 453 388–518 370–536 | 450 | 369 305–434 287–452 | 278 | 823 693–953 658–988 | 728 | 76% 24% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.52 75.30–83.73 74.00–85.04 | — | 75.74 71.24–80.25 69.91–81.58 | — | — | — | 66% 30% |
| Fouls | 11.26 8.41–14.12 7.52–15.01 | 5.00 | 11.70 8.76–14.65 7.84–15.56 | 21.00 | 22.97 17.16–28.77 15.36–30.57 | 26.00 | 42% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.59–3.01 0.25–3.35 | 1.00 | 1.37 0.20–2.53 0.00–2.86 | 1.00 | 3.17 0.80–5.54 0.12–6.22 | 2.00 | 48% 23% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.49–2.60 0.22–2.88 | 1.00 | 1.97 0.85–3.09 0.56–3.38 | 1.00 | 3.51 1.34–5.69 0.78–6.25 | 2.00 | 31% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.14–3.97 0.75–4.36 | 3.00 | 2.74 1.19–4.30 0.76–4.73 | 3.00 | 5.29 2.32–8.26 1.50–9.08 | 6.00 | 38% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+