Bundesliga·Regular Season - 6·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Christian-Petru Ciochirca · Austria
Goals
59%
24%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.700.812.51safe0.74–2.670.00–1.670.69–4.33safer0.48–2.930.00–1.910.18–4.84actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.123.008.12safe3.27–6.981.29–4.704.56–11.68safer2.77–7.480.82–5.173.59–12.65actual5.005.0010.00
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction14.909.4624.36safe11.20–18.616.08–12.8417.28–31.45safer10.17–19.645.15–13.7715.32–33.41actual16.0013.0029.00
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction9.245.2314.47safe6.72–11.762.93–7.539.65–19.29safer5.86–12.622.13–8.337.99–20.95actual14.008.0022.00
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.682.766.44safe2.10–5.261.34–4.173.44–9.44safer1.56–5.800.86–4.662.42–10.46actual6.002.008.00
Corners
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.123.749.86safe3.92–8.331.76–5.715.67–14.04safer3.32–8.921.22–6.254.54–15.17actual6.004.0010.00
Possession %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction56.1844.38safe49.86–62.4938.06–50.70safer48.26–64.0936.46–52.29actual63.0037.00
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction476369845safe411–541305–434715–975safer393–559287–451680–1010actual527321848
Pass accuracy %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction76.7173.24safe72.49–80.9268.73–77.75safer71.19–82.2267.40–79.08
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1510.9521.10safe7.30–13.018.00–13.8915.30–26.91safer6.41–13.907.09–14.8113.50–28.71actual5.007.0012.00
Offsides
60%
21%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.083.13safe0.84–3.250.00–2.240.75–5.50safer0.49–3.600.00–2.580.08–6.18actual3.003.006.00
Yellow cards
36%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.043.88safe0.78–2.890.92–3.161.71–6.06safer0.51–3.170.63–3.451.14–6.62actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
27%
17%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.203.065.27safe0.79–3.621.51–4.622.30–8.24safer0.40–4.011.08–5.051.48–9.06actual4.003.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.74–2.67 0.48–2.93 | 2.00 | 0.81 0.00–1.67 0.00–1.91 | 1.00 | 2.51 0.69–4.33 0.18–4.84 | 3.00 | 59% 24% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.12 3.27–6.98 2.77–7.48 | 5.00 | 3.00 1.29–4.70 0.82–5.17 | 5.00 | 8.12 4.56–11.68 3.59–12.65 | 10.00 | 72% 17% |
| Total shots | 14.90 11.20–18.61 10.17–19.64 | 16.00 | 9.46 6.08–12.84 5.15–13.77 | 13.00 | 24.36 17.28–31.45 15.32–33.41 | 29.00 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 9.24 6.72–11.76 5.86–12.62 | 14.00 | 5.23 2.93–7.53 2.13–8.33 | 8.00 | 14.47 9.65–19.29 7.99–20.95 | 22.00 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 3.68 2.10–5.26 1.56–5.80 | 6.00 | 2.76 1.34–4.17 0.86–4.66 | 2.00 | 6.44 3.44–9.44 2.42–10.46 | 8.00 | 56% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 6.12 3.92–8.33 3.32–8.92 | 6.00 | 3.74 1.76–5.71 1.22–6.25 | 4.00 | 9.86 5.67–14.04 4.54–15.17 | 10.00 | 73% 18% |
| Possession % | 56.18 49.86–62.49 48.26–64.09 | 63.00 | 44.38 38.06–50.70 36.46–52.29 | 37.00 | — | — | 75% 21% |
| Passes | 476 411–541 393–559 | 527 | 369 305–434 287–451 | 321 | 845 715–975 680–1010 | 848 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.71 72.49–80.92 71.19–82.22 | — | 73.24 68.73–77.75 67.40–79.08 | — | — | — | 64% 31% |
| Fouls | 10.15 7.30–13.01 6.41–13.90 | 5.00 | 10.95 8.00–13.89 7.09–14.81 | 7.00 | 21.10 15.30–26.91 13.50–28.71 | 12.00 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.84–3.25 0.49–3.60 | 3.00 | 1.08 0.00–2.24 0.00–2.58 | 3.00 | 3.13 0.75–5.50 0.08–6.18 | 6.00 | 60% 21% 19% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.78–2.89 0.51–3.17 | 0.00 | 2.04 0.92–3.16 0.63–3.45 | 1.00 | 3.88 1.71–6.06 1.14–6.62 | 1.00 | 36% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.20 0.79–3.62 0.40–4.01 | 4.00 | 3.06 1.51–4.62 1.08–5.05 | 3.00 | 5.27 2.30–8.24 1.48–9.06 | 7.00 | 27% 17% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.