Bundesliga·Regular Season - 6·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
30%
26%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.502.68safe0.22–2.140.64–2.360.86–4.50safer0.00–2.400.39–2.600.35–5.01actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
80%
homeawaytotalprediction2.845.778.61safe0.99–4.704.06–7.485.05–12.18safer0.49–5.203.59–7.954.08–13.14actual2.006.008.00
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6315.1824.80safe5.92–13.3311.80–18.5517.72–31.88safer4.89–14.3610.87–19.4815.76–33.85actual8.0024.0032.00
Shots in box
28%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction6.548.2214.76safe4.02–9.065.92–10.529.94–19.58safer3.16–9.925.12–11.328.28–21.24actual6.0014.0020.00
Blocked shots
42%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.543.577.11safe1.96–5.122.16–4.994.11–10.11safer1.42–5.661.67–5.473.09–11.13actual3.005.008.00
Corners
20%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.535.579.10safe1.32–5.733.59–7.554.91–13.28safer0.73–6.333.05–8.083.78–14.41actual5.007.0012.00
Possession %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction41.8658.56safe35.54–48.1752.24–64.87safer33.94–49.7750.64–66.47actual32.0068.00
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction323464787safe258–388399–529657–917safer240–406382–546622–952actual315677992
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction75.9979.91safe71.78–80.2175.41–84.42safer70.48–81.5174.08–85.75
Fouls
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction11.788.1019.88safe8.92–14.645.15–11.0414.07–25.68safer8.04–15.524.23–11.9612.27–27.48actual8.006.0014.00
Offsides
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.963.47safe0.30–2.720.80–3.121.10–5.84safer0.00–3.070.46–3.450.42–6.52actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
51%
19%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.411.834.24safe1.36–3.470.71–2.952.07–6.42safer1.09–3.740.42–3.241.50–6.98actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
18%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.210.070.28safe0.06–0.360.00–0.260.00–0.62safer0.00–0.510.00–0.410.00–0.92actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
73%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.222.196.41safe2.81–5.640.64–3.743.44–9.38safer2.42–6.030.20–4.182.62–10.20actual5.001.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.22–2.14 0.00–2.40 | 1.00 | 1.50 0.64–2.36 0.39–2.60 | 1.00 | 2.68 0.86–4.50 0.35–5.01 | 2.00 | 30% 26% 45% |
| Shots on target | 2.84 0.99–4.70 0.49–5.20 | 2.00 | 5.77 4.06–7.48 3.59–7.95 | 6.00 | 8.61 5.05–12.18 4.08–13.14 | 8.00 | 80% |
| Total shots | 9.63 5.92–13.33 4.89–14.36 | 8.00 | 15.18 11.80–18.55 10.87–19.48 | 24.00 | 24.80 17.72–31.88 15.76–33.85 | 32.00 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 6.54 4.02–9.06 3.16–9.92 | 6.00 | 8.22 5.92–10.52 5.12–11.32 | 14.00 | 14.76 9.94–19.58 8.28–21.24 | 20.00 | 28% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.96–5.12 1.42–5.66 | 3.00 | 3.57 2.16–4.99 1.67–5.47 | 5.00 | 7.11 4.11–10.11 3.09–11.13 | 8.00 | 42% 15% 43% |
| Corners | 3.53 1.32–5.73 0.73–6.33 | 5.00 | 5.57 3.59–7.55 3.05–8.08 | 7.00 | 9.10 4.91–13.28 3.78–14.41 | 12.00 | 20% 69% |
| Possession % | 41.86 35.54–48.17 33.94–49.77 | 32.00 | 58.56 52.24–64.87 50.64–66.47 | 68.00 | — | — | 13% 84% |
| Passes | 323 258–388 240–406 | 315 | 464 399–529 382–546 | 677 | 787 657–917 622–952 | 992 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.99 71.78–80.21 70.48–81.51 | — | 79.91 75.41–84.42 74.08–85.75 | — | — | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 11.78 8.92–14.64 8.04–15.52 | 8.00 | 8.10 5.15–11.04 4.23–11.96 | 6.00 | 19.88 14.07–25.68 12.27–27.48 | 14.00 | 76% 17% |
| Offsides | 1.51 0.30–2.72 0.00–3.07 | 0.00 | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.46–3.45 | 2.00 | 3.47 1.10–5.84 0.42–6.52 | 2.00 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 2.41 1.36–3.47 1.09–3.74 | 2.00 | 1.83 0.71–2.95 0.42–3.24 | 3.00 | 4.24 2.07–6.42 1.50–6.98 | 5.00 | 51% 19% 29% |
| Red cards | 0.21 0.06–0.36 0.00–0.51 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.28 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.92 | 0.00 | 18% 77% |
| GK saves | 4.22 2.81–5.64 2.42–6.03 | 5.00 | 2.19 0.64–3.74 0.20–4.18 | 1.00 | 6.41 3.44–9.38 2.62–10.20 | 6.00 | 73% 15% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+