Bundesliga·Regular Season - 6·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Sebastian Gishamer · Austria
Goals
30%
24%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.642.93safe0.32–2.250.78–2.501.10–4.75safer0.06–2.510.54–2.750.60–5.25actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.335.029.35safe2.48–6.193.31–6.735.79–12.92safer1.98–6.692.85–7.204.82–13.88actual7.004.0011.00
Total shots
38%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4814.6128.08safe9.77–17.1811.23–17.9921.00–35.17safer8.74–18.2110.30–18.9219.04–37.13actual14.0026.0040.00
Shots in box
36%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction7.868.8016.65safe5.34–10.376.49–11.1011.84–21.47safer4.48–11.245.70–11.8910.18–23.13actual12.0014.0026.00
Blocked shots
43%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.983.967.94safe2.40–5.572.54–5.374.94–10.94safer1.86–6.102.06–5.863.92–11.96actual2.006.008.00
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction5.015.2110.22safe2.81–7.223.23–7.186.04–14.40safer2.21–7.812.69–7.724.90–15.54actual3.006.009.00
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.2249.62safe43.90–56.5443.30–55.94safer42.30–58.1341.70–57.53actual35.0065.00
Passes
37%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction385424809safe320–450359–488679–939safer302–468342–506644–974actual250469719
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction77.4077.54safe73.19–81.6273.03–82.04safer71.89–82.9271.70–83.37
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1511.6922.85safe8.30–14.018.75–14.6417.05–28.65safer7.41–14.907.83–15.5615.24–30.45actual14.007.0021.00
Offsides
37%
24%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.512.96safe0.24–2.660.35–2.670.59–5.33safer0.00–3.010.01–3.000.00–6.01actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
42%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.192.104.29safe1.13–3.250.98–3.222.11–6.47safer0.86–3.520.69–3.511.55–7.03actual3.003.006.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.090.13safe0.00–0.190.00–0.280.00–0.47safer0.00–0.340.00–0.430.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
53%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.432.736.15safe2.01–4.841.17–4.283.18–9.12safer1.62–5.230.74–4.712.36–9.94actual2.005.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 0.32–2.25 0.06–2.51 | 2.00 | 1.64 0.78–2.50 0.54–2.75 | 1.00 | 2.93 1.10–4.75 0.60–5.25 | 3.00 | 30% 24% 46% |
| Shots on target | 4.33 2.48–6.19 1.98–6.69 | 7.00 | 5.02 3.31–6.73 2.85–7.20 | 4.00 | 9.35 5.79–12.92 4.82–13.88 | 11.00 | 35% 52% |
| Total shots | 13.48 9.77–17.18 8.74–18.21 | 14.00 | 14.61 11.23–17.99 10.30–18.92 | 26.00 | 28.08 21.00–35.17 19.04–37.13 | 40.00 | 38% 55% |
| Shots in box | 7.86 5.34–10.37 4.48–11.24 | 12.00 | 8.80 6.49–11.10 5.70–11.89 | 14.00 | 16.65 11.84–21.47 10.18–23.13 | 26.00 | 36% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 3.98 2.40–5.57 1.86–6.10 | 2.00 | 3.96 2.54–5.37 2.06–5.86 | 6.00 | 7.94 4.94–10.94 3.92–11.96 | 8.00 | 43% 14% 42% |
| Corners | 5.01 2.81–7.22 2.21–7.81 | 3.00 | 5.21 3.23–7.18 2.69–7.72 | 6.00 | 10.22 6.04–14.40 4.90–15.54 | 9.00 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 50.22 43.90–56.54 42.30–58.13 | 35.00 | 49.62 43.30–55.94 41.70–57.53 | 65.00 | — | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 385 320–450 302–468 | 250 | 424 359–488 342–506 | 469 | 809 679–939 644–974 | 719 | 37% 63% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.40 73.19–81.62 71.89–82.92 | — | 77.54 73.03–82.04 71.70–83.37 | — | — | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 11.15 8.30–14.01 7.41–14.90 | 14.00 | 11.69 8.75–14.64 7.83–15.56 | 7.00 | 22.85 17.05–28.65 15.24–30.45 | 21.00 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.45 0.24–2.66 0.00–3.01 | 2.00 | 1.51 0.35–2.67 0.01–3.00 | 0.00 | 2.96 0.59–5.33 0.00–6.01 | 2.00 | 37% 24% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.19 1.13–3.25 0.86–3.52 | 3.00 | 2.10 0.98–3.22 0.69–3.51 | 3.00 | 4.29 2.11–6.47 1.55–7.03 | 6.00 | 42% 20% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.43 2.01–4.84 1.62–5.23 | 2.00 | 2.73 1.17–4.28 0.74–4.71 | 5.00 | 6.15 3.18–9.12 2.36–9.94 | 7.00 | 53% 16% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.