Bundesliga·Regular Season - 6·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Achim Untergasser · Austria
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.162.65safe0.54–2.460.30–2.010.83–4.48safer0.28–2.720.05–2.260.33–4.98actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.953.878.81safe3.09–6.802.16–5.575.25–12.38safer2.59–7.301.69–6.044.28–13.34actual7.004.0011.00
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0410.4625.50safe11.34–18.757.08–13.8418.42–32.59safer10.31–19.786.15–14.7716.46–34.55actual16.005.0021.00
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction9.256.7516.01safe6.74–11.774.45–9.0611.19–20.83safer5.87–12.643.66–9.859.53–22.49actual9.004.0013.00
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.132.796.92safe2.55–5.721.37–4.203.92–9.92safer2.01–6.250.89–4.692.90–10.94actual6.000.006.00
Corners
59%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.874.6410.51safe3.66–8.072.66–6.626.32–14.69safer3.07–8.672.12–7.165.19–15.82actual14.005.0019.00
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction50.4749.61safe44.15–56.7943.29–55.92safer42.56–58.3841.69–57.52actual66.0034.00
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction428417846safe363–494353–482716–976safer345–511335–499681–1011actual539285824
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction74.2275.31safe70.00–78.4470.80–79.82safer68.70–79.7469.47–81.15
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction9.5312.4021.93safe6.67–12.399.45–15.3416.13–27.73safer5.79–13.278.53–16.2614.32–29.54actual10.0013.0023.00
Offsides
21%
19%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.362.363.72safe0.15–2.571.20–3.521.35–6.09safer0.00–2.920.86–3.850.67–6.77actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.953.83safe0.83–2.940.83–3.071.65–6.01safer0.56–3.210.54–3.361.09–6.57actual0.000.000.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.060.11safe0.00–0.210.00–0.250.00–0.46safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.305.96safe1.25–4.081.74–4.852.99–8.93safer0.86–4.471.31–5.282.17–9.75actual2.005.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.54–2.46 0.28–2.72 | 2.00 | 1.16 0.30–2.01 0.05–2.26 | 2.00 | 2.65 0.83–4.48 0.33–4.98 | 4.00 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.95 3.09–6.80 2.59–7.30 | 7.00 | 3.87 2.16–5.57 1.69–6.04 | 4.00 | 8.81 5.25–12.38 4.28–13.34 | 11.00 | 58% 30% |
| Total shots | 15.04 11.34–18.75 10.31–19.78 | 16.00 | 10.46 7.08–13.84 6.15–14.77 | 5.00 | 25.50 18.42–32.59 16.46–34.55 | 21.00 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 9.25 6.74–11.77 5.87–12.64 | 9.00 | 6.75 4.45–9.06 3.66–9.85 | 4.00 | 16.01 11.19–20.83 9.53–22.49 | 13.00 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 4.13 2.55–5.72 2.01–6.25 | 6.00 | 2.79 1.37–4.20 0.89–4.69 | 0.00 | 6.92 3.92–9.92 2.90–10.94 | 6.00 | 62% 14% 24% |
| Corners | 5.87 3.66–8.07 3.07–8.67 | 14.00 | 4.64 2.66–6.62 2.12–7.16 | 5.00 | 10.51 6.32–14.69 5.19–15.82 | 19.00 | 59% 30% |
| Possession % | 50.47 44.15–56.79 42.56–58.38 | 66.00 | 49.61 43.29–55.92 41.69–57.52 | 34.00 | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 428 363–494 345–511 | 539 | 417 353–482 335–499 | 285 | 846 716–976 681–1011 | 824 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.22 70.00–78.44 68.70–79.74 | — | 75.31 70.80–79.82 69.47–81.15 | — | — | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 9.53 6.67–12.39 5.79–13.27 | 10.00 | 12.40 9.45–15.34 8.53–16.26 | 13.00 | 21.93 16.13–27.73 14.32–29.54 | 23.00 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 1.36 0.15–2.57 0.00–2.92 | 2.00 | 2.36 1.20–3.52 0.86–3.85 | 2.00 | 3.72 1.35–6.09 0.67–6.77 | 4.00 | 21% 19% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 0.83–2.94 0.56–3.21 | 0.00 | 1.95 0.83–3.07 0.54–3.36 | 0.00 | 3.83 1.65–6.01 1.09–6.57 | 0.00 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.25–4.08 0.86–4.47 | 2.00 | 3.30 1.74–4.85 1.31–5.28 | 5.00 | 5.96 2.99–8.93 2.17–9.75 | 7.00 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.