Bundesliga·Regular Season - 6·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Alain Sadikovski · Austria
Goals
19%
19%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.182.273.45safe0.22–2.151.41–3.131.63–5.28safer0.00–2.411.16–3.371.12–5.78actual0.003.003.00
Shots on target
20%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction4.066.1910.25safe2.21–5.924.48–7.906.69–13.82safer1.71–6.424.01–8.375.72–14.78actual3.004.007.00
Total shots
20%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0615.9227.98safe8.35–15.7612.54–19.3020.89–35.06safer7.32–16.7911.61–20.2318.93–37.02actual12.006.0018.00
Shots in box
14%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction7.3511.4618.81safe4.83–9.879.16–13.7613.99–23.63safer3.97–10.738.36–14.5612.33–25.29actual4.005.009.00
Blocked shots
22%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.054.667.71safe1.46–4.633.24–6.074.71–10.70safer0.93–5.172.76–6.563.69–11.73actual7.000.007.00
Corners
24%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction4.376.1110.48safe2.17–6.584.13–8.086.30–14.66safer1.57–7.173.59–8.625.16–15.80actual1.006.007.00
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction40.0359.16safe33.71–46.3552.84–65.48safer32.12–47.9551.24–67.07actual39.0061.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction343567910safe277–408503–632780–1040safer260–426485–649745–1075actual4076351042
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction71.2082.25safe66.99–75.4277.74–86.76safer65.69–76.7276.41–88.09
Fouls
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6810.0621.74safe8.83–14.547.11–13.0015.94–27.54safer7.94–15.436.19–13.9214.14–29.35actual16.0015.0031.00
Offsides
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.123.95safe0.62–3.040.96–3.291.58–6.32safer0.28–3.380.63–3.620.90–7.00actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
52%
20%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.241.633.87safe1.18–3.300.51–2.751.69–6.04safer0.91–3.570.22–3.041.13–6.61actual2.004.006.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
74%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.792.557.34safe3.38–6.211.00–4.114.38–10.31safer2.99–6.600.57–4.543.56–11.13actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.22–2.15 0.00–2.41 | 0.00 | 2.27 1.41–3.13 1.16–3.37 | 3.00 | 3.45 1.63–5.28 1.12–5.78 | 3.00 | 19% 19% 62% |
| Shots on target | 4.06 2.21–5.92 1.71–6.42 | 3.00 | 6.19 4.48–7.90 4.01–8.37 | 4.00 | 10.25 6.69–13.82 5.72–14.78 | 7.00 | 20% 69% |
| Total shots | 12.06 8.35–15.76 7.32–16.79 | 12.00 | 15.92 12.54–19.30 11.61–20.23 | 6.00 | 27.98 20.89–35.06 18.93–37.02 | 18.00 | 20% 74% |
| Shots in box | 7.35 4.83–9.87 3.97–10.73 | 4.00 | 11.46 9.16–13.76 8.36–14.56 | 5.00 | 18.81 13.99–23.63 12.33–25.29 | 9.00 | 14% 80% |
| Blocked shots | 3.05 1.46–4.63 0.93–5.17 | 7.00 | 4.66 3.24–6.07 2.76–6.56 | 0.00 | 7.71 4.71–10.70 3.69–11.73 | 7.00 | 22% 65% |
| Corners | 4.37 2.17–6.58 1.57–7.17 | 1.00 | 6.11 4.13–8.08 3.59–8.62 | 6.00 | 10.48 6.30–14.66 5.16–15.80 | 7.00 | 24% 65% |
| Possession % | 40.03 33.71–46.35 32.12–47.95 | 39.00 | 59.16 52.84–65.48 51.24–67.07 | 61.00 | — | — | 87% |
| Passes | 343 277–408 260–426 | 407 | 567 503–632 485–649 | 635 | 910 780–1040 745–1075 | 1042 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.20 66.99–75.42 65.69–76.72 | — | 82.25 77.74–86.76 76.41–88.09 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 11.68 8.83–14.54 7.94–15.43 | 16.00 | 10.06 7.11–13.00 6.19–13.92 | 15.00 | 21.74 15.94–27.54 14.14–29.35 | 31.00 | 60% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.62–3.04 0.28–3.38 | 1.00 | 2.12 0.96–3.29 0.63–3.62 | 2.00 | 3.95 1.58–6.32 0.90–7.00 | 3.00 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.24 1.18–3.30 0.91–3.57 | 2.00 | 1.63 0.51–2.75 0.22–3.04 | 4.00 | 3.87 1.69–6.04 1.13–6.61 | 6.00 | 52% 20% 28% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 4.79 3.38–6.21 2.99–6.60 | 1.00 | 2.55 1.00–4.11 0.57–4.54 | 3.00 | 7.34 4.38–10.31 3.56–11.13 | 4.00 | 74% 15% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+