Bundesliga·Regular Season - 7·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Stefan Ebner · Austria
Goals
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.372.85safe0.51–2.440.51–2.231.02–4.67safer0.25–2.700.26–2.470.52–5.17actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.344.518.85safe2.49–6.202.80–6.225.29–12.41safer1.99–6.702.33–6.694.32–13.38actual2.002.004.00
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2811.9424.21safe8.57–15.988.56–15.3117.13–31.30safer7.54–17.017.63–16.2415.17–33.26actual12.0011.0023.00
Shots in box
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction8.089.4717.55safe5.57–10.607.17–11.7712.74–22.37safer4.70–11.466.37–12.5711.07–24.03actual8.007.0015.00
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.643.336.98safe2.06–5.231.92–4.753.98–9.97safer1.53–5.761.43–5.232.96–10.99actual3.001.004.00
Corners
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.615.299.90safe2.40–6.813.31–7.275.71–14.08safer1.81–7.412.77–7.814.58–15.21actual3.007.0010.00
Possession %
23%
72%
homeawayprediction44.3954.84safe38.07–50.7148.52–61.16safer36.48–52.3046.93–62.76actual48.0052.00
Passes
25%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction351431782safe286–416366–496652–912safer268–434349–513617–947actual334359693
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction68.0471.93safe63.83–72.2667.42–76.43safer62.53–73.5666.09–77.76
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5011.0821.59safe7.64–13.368.14–14.0315.78–27.39safer6.76–14.247.22–14.9513.98–29.19actual14.008.0022.00
Offsides
35%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.963.70safe0.54–2.960.79–3.121.33–6.08safer0.19–3.300.46–3.450.65–6.75actual0.008.008.00
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.154.18safe0.97–3.091.03–3.272.01–6.36safer0.70–3.360.74–3.561.44–6.92actual4.001.005.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
41%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.672.665.33safe1.25–4.081.11–4.222.36–8.30safer0.86–4.470.68–4.651.54–9.12actual2.000.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.44 0.25–2.70 | 2.00 | 1.37 0.51–2.23 0.26–2.47 | 0.00 | 2.85 1.02–4.67 0.52–5.17 | 2.00 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.34 2.49–6.20 1.99–6.70 | 2.00 | 4.51 2.80–6.22 2.33–6.69 | 2.00 | 8.85 5.29–12.41 4.32–13.38 | 4.00 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 12.28 8.57–15.98 7.54–17.01 | 12.00 | 11.94 8.56–15.31 7.63–16.24 | 11.00 | 24.21 17.13–31.30 15.17–33.26 | 23.00 | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 8.08 5.57–10.60 4.70–11.46 | 8.00 | 9.47 7.17–11.77 6.37–12.57 | 7.00 | 17.55 12.74–22.37 11.07–24.03 | 15.00 | 33% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 2.06–5.23 1.53–5.76 | 3.00 | 3.33 1.92–4.75 1.43–5.23 | 1.00 | 6.98 3.98–9.97 2.96–10.99 | 4.00 | 47% 15% 38% |
| Corners | 4.61 2.40–6.81 1.81–7.41 | 3.00 | 5.29 3.31–7.27 2.77–7.81 | 7.00 | 9.90 5.71–14.08 4.58–15.21 | 10.00 | 35% 52% |
| Possession % | 44.39 38.07–50.71 36.48–52.30 | 48.00 | 54.84 48.52–61.16 46.93–62.76 | 52.00 | — | — | 23% 72% |
| Passes | 351 286–416 268–434 | 334 | 431 366–496 349–513 | 359 | 782 652–912 617–947 | 693 | 25% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.04 63.83–72.26 62.53–73.56 | — | 71.93 67.42–76.43 66.09–77.76 | — | — | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 10.50 7.64–13.36 6.76–14.24 | 14.00 | 11.08 8.14–14.03 7.22–14.95 | 8.00 | 21.59 15.78–27.39 13.98–29.19 | 22.00 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.54–2.96 0.19–3.30 | 0.00 | 1.96 0.79–3.12 0.46–3.45 | 8.00 | 3.70 1.33–6.08 0.65–6.75 | 8.00 | 35% 21% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.97–3.09 0.70–3.36 | 4.00 | 2.15 1.03–3.27 0.74–3.56 | 1.00 | 4.18 2.01–6.36 1.44–6.92 | 5.00 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.67 1.25–4.08 0.86–4.47 | 2.00 | 2.66 1.11–4.22 0.68–4.65 | 0.00 | 5.33 2.36–8.30 1.54–9.12 | 2.00 | 41% 18% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.