Bundesliga·Regular Season - 7·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Arnes Talic · Austria
Goals
39%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.152.42safe0.31–2.230.29–2.010.60–4.25safer0.05–2.490.05–2.260.09–4.75actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.163.858.01safe2.30–6.012.14–5.554.44–11.57safer1.80–6.511.67–6.023.47–12.54actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3111.3023.62safe8.61–16.027.92–14.6816.53–30.70safer7.58–17.056.99–15.6114.57–32.66actual13.0011.0024.00
Shots in box
51%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction7.837.1915.02safe5.32–10.354.89–9.4910.21–19.84safer4.45–11.214.09–10.298.55–21.50actual6.008.0014.00
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.183.316.49safe1.60–4.761.90–4.733.49–9.49safer1.06–5.301.41–5.212.47–10.51actual0.002.002.00
Corners
44%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.864.789.64safe2.66–7.072.80–6.765.46–13.83safer2.06–7.662.27–7.304.33–14.96actual2.004.006.00
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.6750.59safe43.35–55.9944.27–56.90safer41.76–57.5942.67–58.50actual48.0052.00
Passes
49%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction417419836safe352–482355–484706–966safer334–500337–501671–1001actual389423812
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction68.7167.20safe64.50–72.9362.70–71.71safer63.20–74.2361.37–73.04
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8512.7523.60safe7.99–13.719.80–15.6917.80–29.40safer7.11–14.598.88–16.6115.99–31.21actual12.009.0021.00
Offsides
39%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.563.14safe0.37–2.790.40–2.720.77–5.51safer0.02–3.130.07–3.060.09–6.19actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
37%
19%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.494.79safe1.24–3.351.37–3.612.62–6.97safer0.97–3.631.08–3.902.05–7.53actual5.003.008.00
Red cards
14%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.170.110.27safe0.01–0.320.00–0.300.00–0.62safer0.00–0.470.00–0.440.00–0.92actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
43%
18%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.632.495.12safe1.21–4.040.94–4.052.15–8.09safer0.82–4.430.51–4.481.33–8.91actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.31–2.23 0.05–2.49 | 2.00 | 1.15 0.29–2.01 0.05–2.26 | 2.00 | 2.42 0.60–4.25 0.09–4.75 | 4.00 | 39% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.16 2.30–6.01 1.80–6.51 | 5.00 | 3.85 2.14–5.55 1.67–6.02 | 4.00 | 8.01 4.44–11.57 3.47–12.54 | 9.00 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 12.31 8.61–16.02 7.58–17.05 | 13.00 | 11.30 7.92–14.68 6.99–15.61 | 11.00 | 23.62 16.53–30.70 14.57–32.66 | 24.00 | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 7.83 5.32–10.35 4.45–11.21 | 6.00 | 7.19 4.89–9.49 4.09–10.29 | 8.00 | 15.02 10.21–19.84 8.55–21.50 | 14.00 | 51% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 3.18 1.60–4.76 1.06–5.30 | 0.00 | 3.31 1.90–4.73 1.41–5.21 | 2.00 | 6.49 3.49–9.49 2.47–10.51 | 2.00 | 40% 16% 44% |
| Corners | 4.86 2.66–7.07 2.06–7.66 | 2.00 | 4.78 2.80–6.76 2.27–7.30 | 4.00 | 9.64 5.46–13.83 4.33–14.96 | 6.00 | 44% 13% 42% |
| Possession % | 49.67 43.35–55.99 41.76–57.59 | 48.00 | 50.59 44.27–56.90 42.67–58.50 | 52.00 | — | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 417 352–482 334–500 | 389 | 419 355–484 337–501 | 423 | 836 706–966 671–1001 | 812 | 49% 51% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.71 64.50–72.93 63.20–74.23 | — | 67.20 62.70–71.71 61.37–73.04 | — | — | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 10.85 7.99–13.71 7.11–14.59 | 12.00 | 12.75 9.80–15.69 8.88–16.61 | 9.00 | 23.60 17.80–29.40 15.99–31.21 | 21.00 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.37–2.79 0.02–3.13 | 1.00 | 1.56 0.40–2.72 0.07–3.06 | 1.00 | 3.14 0.77–5.51 0.09–6.19 | 2.00 | 39% 24% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.30 1.24–3.35 0.97–3.63 | 5.00 | 2.49 1.37–3.61 1.08–3.90 | 3.00 | 4.79 2.62–6.97 2.05–7.53 | 8.00 | 37% 19% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.17 0.01–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.92 | 0.00 | 14% 77% |
| GK saves | 2.63 1.21–4.04 0.82–4.43 | 2.00 | 2.49 0.94–4.05 0.51–4.48 | 3.00 | 5.12 2.15–8.09 1.33–8.91 | 5.00 | 43% 18% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.