Bundesliga·Regular Season - 7·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Safak Barmaksiz · Austria
Goals
18%
20%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.082.123.20safe0.12–2.041.26–2.981.38–5.02safer0.00–2.301.02–3.230.87–5.53actual3.003.006.00
Shots on target
17%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction3.435.779.20safe1.57–5.284.06–7.485.64–12.76safer1.07–5.783.60–7.954.67–13.73actual3.006.009.00
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3315.9326.26safe6.63–14.0312.55–19.3119.18–33.34safer5.60–15.0711.62–20.2417.22–35.31actual10.0016.0026.00
Shots in box
13%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.8610.9917.84safe4.34–9.378.69–13.2913.02–22.66safer3.47–10.247.89–14.0811.36–24.32actual4.009.0013.00
Blocked shots
21%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.744.387.12safe1.15–4.322.96–5.794.12–10.11safer0.62–4.862.48–6.283.10–11.14actual4.005.009.00
Corners
22%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction4.226.1610.38safe2.02–6.434.18–8.146.20–14.57safer1.42–7.023.64–8.685.07–15.70actual1.009.0010.00
Possession %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction47.2851.88safe40.96–53.6045.56–58.19safer39.37–55.2043.96–59.79actual40.0060.00
Passes
44%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction407423830safe341–472358–487700–959safer324–490341–505664–995actual348516864
Pass accuracy %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction67.1074.33safe62.88–71.3269.83–78.84safer61.58–72.6268.50–80.17
Fouls
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction11.139.5020.63safe8.27–13.996.56–12.4514.83–26.44safer7.39–14.875.64–13.3713.03–28.24actual16.005.0021.00
Offsides
33%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.813.36safe0.34–2.760.65–2.970.99–5.73safer0.00–3.100.31–3.300.31–6.41actual6.001.007.00
Yellow cards
42%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.803.75safe0.90–3.010.68–2.921.58–5.93safer0.62–3.280.39–3.211.01–6.49actual4.000.004.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.070.17safe0.00–0.260.00–0.260.00–0.52safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
74%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction4.422.236.65safe3.01–5.840.68–3.783.69–9.62safer2.62–6.230.24–4.222.87–10.44actual3.000.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.08 0.12–2.04 0.00–2.30 | 3.00 | 2.12 1.26–2.98 1.02–3.23 | 3.00 | 3.20 1.38–5.02 0.87–5.53 | 6.00 | 18% 20% 61% |
| Shots on target | 3.43 1.57–5.28 1.07–5.78 | 3.00 | 5.77 4.06–7.48 3.60–7.95 | 6.00 | 9.20 5.64–12.76 4.67–13.73 | 9.00 | 17% 73% |
| Total shots | 10.33 6.63–14.03 5.60–15.07 | 10.00 | 15.93 12.55–19.31 11.62–20.24 | 16.00 | 26.26 19.18–33.34 17.22–35.31 | 26.00 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 6.86 4.34–9.37 3.47–10.24 | 4.00 | 10.99 8.69–13.29 7.89–14.08 | 9.00 | 17.84 13.02–22.66 11.36–24.32 | 13.00 | 13% 81% |
| Blocked shots | 2.74 1.15–4.32 0.62–4.86 | 4.00 | 4.38 2.96–5.79 2.48–6.28 | 5.00 | 7.12 4.12–10.11 3.10–11.14 | 9.00 | 21% 66% |
| Corners | 4.22 2.02–6.43 1.42–7.02 | 1.00 | 6.16 4.18–8.14 3.64–8.68 | 9.00 | 10.38 6.20–14.57 5.07–15.70 | 10.00 | 22% 67% |
| Possession % | 47.28 40.96–53.60 39.37–55.20 | 40.00 | 51.88 45.56–58.19 43.96–59.79 | 60.00 | — | — | 36% 59% |
| Passes | 407 341–472 324–490 | 348 | 423 358–487 341–505 | 516 | 830 700–959 664–995 | 864 | 44% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.10 62.88–71.32 61.58–72.62 | — | 74.33 69.83–78.84 68.50–80.17 | — | — | — | 17% 80% |
| Fouls | 11.13 8.27–13.99 7.39–14.87 | 16.00 | 9.50 6.56–12.45 5.64–13.37 | 5.00 | 20.63 14.83–26.44 13.03–28.24 | 21.00 | 60% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.34–2.76 0.00–3.10 | 6.00 | 1.81 0.65–2.97 0.31–3.30 | 1.00 | 3.36 0.99–5.73 0.31–6.41 | 7.00 | 33% 23% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.90–3.01 0.62–3.28 | 4.00 | 1.80 0.68–2.92 0.39–3.21 | 0.00 | 3.75 1.58–5.93 1.01–6.49 | 4.00 | 42% 21% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 4.42 3.01–5.84 2.62–6.23 | 3.00 | 2.23 0.68–3.78 0.24–4.22 | 0.00 | 6.65 3.69–9.62 2.87–10.44 | 3.00 | 74% 14% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.