Bundesliga·Regular Season - 7·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Alexander Harkam · Austria
Goals
46%
27%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.370.982.36safe0.41–2.340.12–1.840.53–4.18safer0.15–2.600.00–2.090.03–4.68actual4.001.005.00
Shots on target
39%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.144.478.61safe2.28–5.992.76–6.185.04–12.17safer1.78–6.492.30–6.654.08–13.14actual11.005.0016.00
Total shots
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3814.0926.47safe8.67–16.0810.72–17.4719.39–33.55safer7.64–17.119.78–18.4017.43–35.51actual20.0026.0046.00
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction7.767.2715.03safe5.24–10.284.96–9.5710.21–19.84safer4.38–11.144.17–10.368.55–21.51actual17.0016.0033.00
Blocked shots
38%
15%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.303.616.90safe1.71–4.882.19–5.023.91–9.90safer1.18–5.411.71–5.512.88–10.92actual1.006.007.00
Corners
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.384.289.66safe3.17–7.582.30–6.265.47–13.84safer2.58–8.181.77–6.804.34–14.97actual0.009.009.00
Possession %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction51.6047.83safe45.28–57.9241.51–54.14safer43.68–59.5139.91–55.74actual47.0053.00
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction456393849safe390–521329–458719–979safer373–539311–476684–1014actual393419812
Pass accuracy %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction73.6469.93safe69.43–77.8665.42–74.44safer68.12–79.1664.09–75.77
Fouls
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3611.2022.57safe8.51–14.228.26–14.1516.77–28.37safer7.62–15.117.34–15.0714.96–30.17actual9.0013.0022.00
Offsides
44%
24%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.393.06safe0.45–2.870.23–2.560.68–5.43safer0.11–3.220.00–2.890.01–6.11actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.942.304.24safe0.88–2.991.18–3.422.07–6.42safer0.61–3.270.89–3.711.51–6.98actual3.004.007.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.090.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.430.00–0.420.00–0.86actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.972.565.54safe1.56–4.391.01–4.122.57–8.50safer1.17–4.780.58–4.551.75–9.32actual4.007.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.41–2.34 0.15–2.60 | 4.00 | 0.98 0.12–1.84 0.00–2.09 | 1.00 | 2.36 0.53–4.18 0.03–4.68 | 5.00 | 46% 27% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.14 2.28–5.99 1.78–6.49 | 11.00 | 4.47 2.76–6.18 2.30–6.65 | 5.00 | 8.61 5.04–12.17 4.08–13.14 | 16.00 | 39% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.38 8.67–16.08 7.64–17.11 | 20.00 | 14.09 10.72–17.47 9.78–18.40 | 26.00 | 26.47 19.39–33.55 17.43–35.51 | 46.00 | 33% 59% |
| Shots in box | 7.76 5.24–10.28 4.38–11.14 | 17.00 | 7.27 4.96–9.57 4.17–10.36 | 16.00 | 15.03 10.21–19.84 8.55–21.51 | 33.00 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.30 1.71–4.88 1.18–5.41 | 1.00 | 3.61 2.19–5.02 1.71–5.51 | 6.00 | 6.90 3.91–9.90 2.88–10.92 | 7.00 | 38% 15% 47% |
| Corners | 5.38 3.17–7.58 2.58–8.18 | 0.00 | 4.28 2.30–6.26 1.77–6.80 | 9.00 | 9.66 5.47–13.84 4.34–14.97 | 9.00 | 57% 30% |
| Possession % | 51.60 45.28–57.92 43.68–59.51 | 47.00 | 47.83 41.51–54.14 39.91–55.74 | 53.00 | — | — | 57% 38% |
| Passes | 456 390–521 373–539 | 393 | 393 329–458 311–476 | 419 | 849 719–979 684–1014 | 812 | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.64 69.43–77.86 68.12–79.16 | — | 69.93 65.42–74.44 64.09–75.77 | — | — | — | 66% 30% |
| Fouls | 11.36 8.51–14.22 7.62–15.11 | 9.00 | 11.20 8.26–14.15 7.34–15.07 | 13.00 | 22.57 16.77–28.37 14.96–30.17 | 22.00 | 47% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.45–2.87 0.11–3.22 | 2.00 | 1.39 0.23–2.56 0.00–2.89 | 1.00 | 3.06 0.68–5.43 0.01–6.11 | 3.00 | 44% 24% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 0.88–2.99 0.61–3.27 | 3.00 | 2.30 1.18–3.42 0.89–3.71 | 4.00 | 4.24 2.07–6.42 1.51–6.98 | 7.00 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.86 | 0.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.56–4.39 1.17–4.78 | 4.00 | 2.56 1.01–4.12 0.58–4.55 | 7.00 | 5.54 2.57–8.50 1.75–9.32 | 11.00 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.