Bundesliga·Regular Season - 7·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Isa Simsek · Austria
Goals
56%
23%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.002.77safe0.81–2.740.14–1.860.95–4.59safer0.55–3.000.00–2.100.44–5.10actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction6.073.259.32safe4.21–7.931.54–4.955.75–12.88safer3.72–8.431.07–5.424.79–13.85actual7.002.009.00
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction17.4210.4127.83safe13.72–21.137.03–13.7920.75–34.92safer12.69–22.166.10–14.7218.79–36.88actual15.0014.0029.00
Shots in box
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.607.0417.64safe8.08–13.114.74–9.3412.82–22.46safer7.22–13.983.94–10.1411.16–24.12actual10.006.0016.00
Blocked shots
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.753.107.85safe3.16–6.331.68–4.514.85–10.85safer2.63–6.871.20–5.003.83–11.87actual3.005.008.00
Corners
68%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction6.704.6311.33safe4.50–8.912.65–6.617.15–15.51safer3.90–9.502.11–7.156.01–16.65actual3.008.0011.00
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction55.9644.90safe49.65–62.2838.58–51.22safer48.05–63.8836.98–52.82actual55.0045.00
Passes
74%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction444368812safe379–510303–433682–942safer361–527286–450647–978actual440343783
Pass accuracy %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction72.9869.64safe68.77–77.2065.13–74.15safer67.47–78.5063.80–75.48
Fouls
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5811.2121.79safe7.72–13.438.26–14.1615.98–27.59safer6.83–14.327.35–15.0714.18–29.39actual11.0014.0025.00
Offsides
42%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.603.38safe0.57–2.990.44–2.771.01–5.76safer0.23–3.330.11–3.100.33–6.43actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
32%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.062.534.58safe1.00–3.111.41–3.652.41–6.76safer0.73–3.391.12–3.941.85–7.32actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.110.16safe0.00–0.210.00–0.300.00–0.51safer0.00–0.360.00–0.450.00–0.81actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
18%
14%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.963.555.51safe0.54–3.371.99–5.102.54–8.47safer0.15–3.761.56–5.531.72–9.29actual2.004.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.78 0.81–2.74 0.55–3.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 0.14–1.86 0.00–2.10 | 0.00 | 2.77 0.95–4.59 0.44–5.10 | 3.00 | 56% 23% 21% |
| Shots on target | 6.07 4.21–7.93 3.72–8.43 | 7.00 | 3.25 1.54–4.95 1.07–5.42 | 2.00 | 9.32 5.75–12.88 4.79–13.85 | 9.00 | 78% 13% |
| Total shots | 17.42 13.72–21.13 12.69–22.16 | 15.00 | 10.41 7.03–13.79 6.10–14.72 | 14.00 | 27.83 20.75–34.92 18.79–36.88 | 29.00 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 10.60 8.08–13.11 7.22–13.98 | 10.00 | 7.04 4.74–9.34 3.94–10.14 | 6.00 | 17.64 12.82–22.46 11.16–24.12 | 16.00 | 77% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.75 3.16–6.33 2.63–6.87 | 3.00 | 3.10 1.68–4.51 1.20–5.00 | 5.00 | 7.85 4.85–10.85 3.83–11.87 | 8.00 | 66% 22% |
| Corners | 6.70 4.50–8.91 3.90–9.50 | 3.00 | 4.63 2.65–6.61 2.11–7.15 | 8.00 | 11.33 7.15–15.51 6.01–16.65 | 11.00 | 68% 22% |
| Possession % | 55.96 49.65–62.28 48.05–63.88 | 55.00 | 44.90 38.58–51.22 36.98–52.82 | 45.00 | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 444 379–510 361–527 | 440 | 368 303–433 286–450 | 343 | 812 682–942 647–978 | 783 | 74% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.98 68.77–77.20 67.47–78.50 | — | 69.64 65.13–74.15 63.80–75.48 | — | — | — | 64% 32% |
| Fouls | 10.58 7.72–13.43 6.83–14.32 | 11.00 | 11.21 8.26–14.16 7.35–15.07 | 14.00 | 21.79 15.98–27.59 14.18–29.39 | 25.00 | 40% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.57–2.99 0.23–3.33 | 2.00 | 1.60 0.44–2.77 0.11–3.10 | 3.00 | 3.38 1.01–5.76 0.33–6.43 | 5.00 | 42% 23% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 1.00–3.11 0.73–3.39 | 0.00 | 2.53 1.41–3.65 1.12–3.94 | 1.00 | 4.58 2.41–6.76 1.85–7.32 | 1.00 | 32% 19% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 1.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 1.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.96 0.54–3.37 0.15–3.76 | 2.00 | 3.55 1.99–5.10 1.56–5.53 | 4.00 | 5.51 2.54–8.47 1.72–9.29 | 6.00 | 18% 14% 68% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+