Bundesliga·Regular Season - 7·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Harald Lechner · Austria
Goals
68%
18%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.280.933.21safe1.32–3.240.07–1.791.38–5.03safer1.06–3.500.00–2.030.88–5.54actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.183.789.95safe4.32–8.032.07–5.496.39–13.52safer3.82–8.531.60–5.955.42–14.48actual7.001.008.00
Total shots
77%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4811.2226.69safe11.77–19.187.84–14.5919.61–33.77safer10.74–20.216.91–15.5317.65–35.74actual17.005.0022.00
Shots in box
86%
homeawaytotalprediction11.956.7818.72safe9.43–14.464.48–9.0813.91–23.54safer8.57–15.333.68–9.8712.25–25.20actual13.003.0016.00
Blocked shots
60%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.223.047.26safe2.63–5.801.62–4.454.26–10.25safer2.10–6.341.14–4.943.24–11.27actual2.002.004.00
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.033.809.82safe3.82–8.231.82–5.775.64–14.00safer3.22–8.831.28–6.314.51–15.14actual6.003.009.00
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction60.3539.54safe54.04–66.6733.22–45.86safer52.44–68.2731.62–47.46actual57.0043.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction6113971007safe545–676332–461878–1137safer528–694315–479842–1173actual552409961
Pass accuracy %
84%
homeawayprediction78.9170.35safe74.69–83.1265.84–74.86safer73.39–84.4264.51–76.19
Fouls
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction9.0911.0220.11safe6.23–11.948.07–13.9614.30–25.91safer5.34–12.837.16–14.8812.50–27.71actual6.0013.0019.00
Offsides
51%
21%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.523.64safe0.90–3.320.36–2.691.27–6.01safer0.56–3.670.03–3.020.59–6.69actual4.006.0010.00
Yellow cards
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.143.79safe0.59–2.711.02–3.261.61–5.97safer0.32–2.980.73–3.551.05–6.53actual4.002.006.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.130.18safe0.00–0.210.00–0.320.00–0.52safer0.00–0.360.00–0.460.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
28%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.526.10safe1.17–3.991.97–5.083.13–9.07safer0.78–4.381.54–5.512.31–9.89actual1.005.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.28 1.32–3.24 1.06–3.50 | 3.00 | 0.93 0.07–1.79 0.00–2.03 | 0.00 | 3.21 1.38–5.03 0.88–5.54 | 3.00 | 68% 18% 14% |
| Shots on target | 6.18 4.32–8.03 3.82–8.53 | 7.00 | 3.78 2.07–5.49 1.60–5.95 | 1.00 | 9.95 6.39–13.52 5.42–14.48 | 8.00 | 73% 18% |
| Total shots | 15.48 11.77–19.18 10.74–20.21 | 17.00 | 11.22 7.84–14.59 6.91–15.53 | 5.00 | 26.69 19.61–33.77 17.65–35.74 | 22.00 | 77% 18% |
| Shots in box | 11.95 9.43–14.46 8.57–15.33 | 13.00 | 6.78 4.48–9.08 3.68–9.87 | 3.00 | 18.72 13.91–23.54 12.25–25.20 | 16.00 | 86% |
| Blocked shots | 4.22 2.63–5.80 2.10–6.34 | 2.00 | 3.04 1.62–4.45 1.14–4.94 | 2.00 | 7.26 4.26–10.25 3.24–11.27 | 4.00 | 60% 14% 26% |
| Corners | 6.03 3.82–8.23 3.22–8.83 | 6.00 | 3.80 1.82–5.77 1.28–6.31 | 3.00 | 9.82 5.64–14.00 4.51–15.14 | 9.00 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 60.35 54.04–66.67 52.44–68.27 | 57.00 | 39.54 33.22–45.86 31.62–47.46 | 43.00 | — | — | 89% |
| Passes | 611 545–676 528–694 | 552 | 397 332–461 315–479 | 409 | 1007 878–1137 842–1173 | 961 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.91 74.69–83.12 73.39–84.42 | — | 70.35 65.84–74.86 64.51–76.19 | — | — | — | 84% |
| Fouls | 9.09 6.23–11.94 5.34–12.83 | 6.00 | 11.02 8.07–13.96 7.16–14.88 | 13.00 | 20.11 14.30–25.91 12.50–27.71 | 19.00 | 29% 62% |
| Offsides | 2.11 0.90–3.32 0.56–3.67 | 4.00 | 1.52 0.36–2.69 0.03–3.02 | 6.00 | 3.64 1.27–6.01 0.59–6.69 | 10.00 | 51% 21% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.59–2.71 0.32–2.98 | 4.00 | 2.14 1.02–3.26 0.73–3.55 | 2.00 | 3.79 1.61–5.97 1.05–6.53 | 6.00 | 30% 21% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.17–3.99 0.78–4.38 | 1.00 | 3.52 1.97–5.08 1.54–5.51 | 5.00 | 6.10 3.13–9.07 2.31–9.89 | 6.00 | 28% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.