Bundesliga·Regular Season - 8·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
27%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.012.41safe0.43–2.360.16–1.860.58–4.23safer0.18–2.620.00–2.090.10–4.71
Shots on target
55%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.643.768.40safe2.78–6.512.01–5.504.79–12.00safer2.29–6.991.55–5.963.84–12.96
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5012.1227.63safe11.58–19.438.56–15.6920.14–35.11safer10.49–20.527.60–16.6518.09–37.16
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.327.2416.57safe6.38–12.274.56–9.9210.94–22.19safer5.55–13.093.82–10.669.38–23.76
Blocked shots
47%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.903.627.51safe2.01–5.781.97–5.273.98–11.05safer1.47–6.321.47–5.762.94–12.09
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction6.064.3710.44safe3.85–8.282.37–6.376.22–14.65safer3.28–8.851.84–6.915.12–15.76
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction52.8747.07safe46.08–59.6640.29–53.86safer44.41–61.3338.61–55.53
Passes
65%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction427379807safe360–495313–446673–941safer342–513296–463638–976
Pass accuracy %
41%
53%
homeawayprediction68.5369.70safe64.50–72.5665.37–74.02safer63.20–73.8564.07–75.33
Fouls
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0912.7823.87safe8.25–13.929.84–15.7318.09–29.65safer7.49–14.689.09–16.4816.58–31.16
Offsides
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.383.07safe0.53–2.850.29–2.480.82–5.33safer0.23–3.150.00–2.760.23–5.92
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.274.10safe0.78–2.881.14–3.401.92–6.27safer0.51–3.140.85–3.691.36–6.83
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.22safe0.00–0.260.00–0.310.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.440.00–0.85
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.543.395.93safe1.11–3.981.83–4.942.94–8.92safer0.72–4.371.40–5.372.12–9.73
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.36 0.18–2.62 | 1.01 0.16–1.86 0.00–2.09 | 2.41 0.58–4.23 0.10–4.71 | 46% 27% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.64 2.78–6.51 2.29–6.99 | 3.76 2.01–5.50 1.55–5.96 | 8.40 4.79–12.00 3.84–12.96 | 55% 13% 31% |
| Total shots | 15.50 11.58–19.43 10.49–20.52 | 12.12 8.56–15.69 7.60–16.65 | 27.63 20.14–35.11 18.09–37.16 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 9.32 6.38–12.27 5.55–13.09 | 7.24 4.56–9.92 3.82–10.66 | 16.57 10.94–22.19 9.38–23.76 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.90 2.01–5.78 1.47–6.32 | 3.62 1.97–5.27 1.47–5.76 | 7.51 3.98–11.05 2.94–12.09 | 47% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 6.06 3.85–8.28 3.28–8.85 | 4.37 2.37–6.37 1.84–6.91 | 10.44 6.22–14.65 5.12–15.76 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 52.87 46.08–59.66 44.41–61.33 | 47.07 40.29–53.86 38.61–55.53 | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 427 360–495 342–513 | 379 313–446 296–463 | 807 673–941 638–976 | 65% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.53 64.50–72.56 63.20–73.85 | 69.70 65.37–74.02 64.07–75.33 | — | 41% 53% |
| Fouls | 11.09 8.25–13.92 7.49–14.68 | 12.78 9.84–15.73 9.09–16.48 | 23.87 18.09–29.65 16.58–31.16 | 33% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.23–3.15 | 1.38 0.29–2.48 0.00–2.76 | 3.07 0.82–5.33 0.23–5.92 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.78–2.88 0.51–3.14 | 2.27 1.14–3.40 0.85–3.69 | 4.10 1.92–6.27 1.36–6.83 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.54 1.11–3.98 0.72–4.37 | 3.39 1.83–4.94 1.40–5.37 | 5.93 2.94–8.92 2.12–9.73 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.