Bundesliga·Regular Season - 11·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
27%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.172.54safe0.40–2.340.32–2.030.72–4.36safer0.15–2.590.09–2.250.24–4.84
Shots on target
54%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.543.728.26safe2.68–6.411.98–5.464.66–11.87safer2.19–6.891.51–5.933.70–12.83
Total shots
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5611.3625.92safe10.64–18.487.80–14.9318.44–33.41safer9.54–19.586.84–15.8816.38–35.46
Shots in box
67%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction8.956.7015.66safe6.01–11.904.02–9.3910.04–21.28safer5.18–12.733.29–10.128.47–22.85
Blocked shots
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.493.086.57safe1.61–5.381.42–4.733.03–10.10safer1.07–5.920.93–5.222.00–11.14
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.334.319.64safe3.12–7.542.31–6.315.42–13.85safer2.54–8.121.78–6.844.32–14.96
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction48.2451.82safe41.45–55.0345.03–58.60safer39.78–56.7043.36–60.27
Passes
40%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction396426822safe328–463360–493688–955safer310–481342–510652–991
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction65.1669.41safe61.13–69.1965.08–73.73safer59.84–70.4863.78–75.04
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7112.5924.30safe8.87–14.559.64–15.5318.51–30.08safer8.11–15.308.89–16.2817.01–31.58
Offsides
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.402.90safe0.35–2.670.30–2.490.65–5.16safer0.05–2.970.01–2.780.06–5.75
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.264.18safe0.87–2.961.13–3.392.00–6.36safer0.60–3.230.84–3.681.44–6.91
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
33%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.723.255.96safe1.28–4.151.69–4.802.97–8.96safer0.89–4.541.27–5.232.16–9.77
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.34 0.15–2.59 | 1.17 0.32–2.03 0.09–2.25 | 2.54 0.72–4.36 0.24–4.84 | 41% 27% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.54 2.68–6.41 2.19–6.89 | 3.72 1.98–5.46 1.51–5.93 | 8.26 4.66–11.87 3.70–12.83 | 54% 14% 32% |
| Total shots | 14.56 10.64–18.48 9.54–19.58 | 11.36 7.80–14.93 6.84–15.88 | 25.92 18.44–33.41 16.38–35.46 | 70% 23% |
| Shots in box | 8.95 6.01–11.90 5.18–12.73 | 6.70 4.02–9.39 3.29–10.12 | 15.66 10.04–21.28 8.47–22.85 | 67% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 1.61–5.38 1.07–5.92 | 3.08 1.42–4.73 0.93–5.22 | 6.57 3.03–10.10 2.00–11.14 | 48% 16% 36% |
| Corners | 5.33 3.12–7.54 2.54–8.12 | 4.31 2.31–6.31 1.78–6.84 | 9.64 5.42–13.85 4.32–14.96 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 48.24 41.45–55.03 39.78–56.70 | 51.82 45.03–58.60 43.36–60.27 | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 396 328–463 310–481 | 426 360–493 342–510 | 822 688–955 652–991 | 40% 60% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.16 61.13–69.19 59.84–70.48 | 69.41 65.08–73.73 63.78–75.04 | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 11.71 8.87–14.55 8.11–15.30 | 12.59 9.64–15.53 8.89–16.28 | 24.30 18.51–30.08 17.01–31.58 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.51 0.35–2.67 0.05–2.97 | 1.40 0.30–2.49 0.01–2.78 | 2.90 0.65–5.16 0.06–5.75 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.87–2.96 0.60–3.23 | 2.26 1.13–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 4.18 2.00–6.36 1.44–6.91 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.28–4.15 0.89–4.54 | 3.25 1.69–4.80 1.27–5.23 | 5.96 2.97–8.96 2.16–9.77 | 33% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.