Championship·Regular Season - 6·
Championship·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Matt Donohue · England
Goals
43%
27%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.062.40safe0.38–2.300.20–1.920.58–4.23safer0.12–2.560.00–2.170.08–4.73actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
54%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.503.718.21safe2.64–6.352.00–5.424.64–11.77safer2.14–6.851.54–5.893.68–12.74actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8312.5025.34safe9.13–16.549.12–15.8818.25–32.42safer8.10–17.578.19–16.8116.29–34.38actual19.007.0026.00
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction8.838.1817.02safe6.32–11.355.88–10.4912.20–21.83safer5.45–12.215.09–11.2810.54–23.50actual12.003.0015.00
Blocked shots
50%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.943.447.38safe2.35–5.522.03–4.864.38–10.38safer1.82–6.051.54–5.343.36–11.40actual5.002.007.00
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.674.7310.40safe3.47–7.882.75–6.716.22–14.58safer2.87–8.472.21–7.245.08–15.72actual7.003.0010.00
Possession %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction54.1645.39safe47.84–60.4839.07–51.71safer46.25–62.0737.47–53.31actual63.0037.00
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction436371808safe371–502307–436678–938safer353–519289–453643–973actual6353821017
Pass accuracy %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction77.3571.87safe73.13–81.5667.36–76.38safer71.83–82.8666.03–77.71actual85.0076.00
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1213.0323.15safe7.26–12.9810.08–15.9717.35–28.95safer6.38–13.869.16–16.8915.54–30.75actual9.0014.0023.00
Offsides
63%
18%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.471.293.76safe1.26–3.670.13–2.461.39–6.13safer0.91–4.020.00–2.790.71–6.81actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.244.15safe0.86–2.971.12–3.361.97–6.32safer0.58–3.240.83–3.651.41–6.89actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.050.14safe0.00–0.240.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
27%
17%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.183.085.26safe0.76–3.591.53–4.642.29–8.23safer0.38–3.981.10–5.071.47–9.05actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.38–2.30 0.12–2.56 | 1.00 | 1.06 0.20–1.92 0.00–2.17 | 2.00 | 2.40 0.58–4.23 0.08–4.73 | 3.00 | 43% 27% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.50 2.64–6.35 2.14–6.85 | 5.00 | 3.71 2.00–5.42 1.54–5.89 | 4.00 | 8.21 4.64–11.77 3.68–12.74 | 9.00 | 54% 14% 33% |
| Total shots | 12.83 9.13–16.54 8.10–17.57 | 19.00 | 12.50 9.12–15.88 8.19–16.81 | 7.00 | 25.34 18.25–32.42 16.29–34.38 | 26.00 | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 8.83 6.32–11.35 5.45–12.21 | 12.00 | 8.18 5.88–10.49 5.09–11.28 | 3.00 | 17.02 12.20–21.83 10.54–23.50 | 15.00 | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.94 2.35–5.52 1.82–6.05 | 5.00 | 3.44 2.03–4.86 1.54–5.34 | 2.00 | 7.38 4.38–10.38 3.36–11.40 | 7.00 | 50% 15% 36% |
| Corners | 5.67 3.47–7.88 2.87–8.47 | 7.00 | 4.73 2.75–6.71 2.21–7.24 | 3.00 | 10.40 6.22–14.58 5.08–15.72 | 10.00 | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 54.16 47.84–60.48 46.25–62.07 | 63.00 | 45.39 39.07–51.71 37.47–53.31 | 37.00 | — | — | 69% 27% |
| Passes | 436 371–502 353–519 | 635 | 371 307–436 289–453 | 382 | 808 678–938 643–973 | 1017 | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.35 73.13–81.56 71.83–82.86 | 85.00 | 71.87 67.36–76.38 66.03–77.71 | 76.00 | — | — | 73% 23% |
| Fouls | 10.12 7.26–12.98 6.38–13.86 | 9.00 | 13.03 10.08–15.97 9.16–16.89 | 14.00 | 23.15 17.35–28.95 15.54–30.75 | 23.00 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 2.47 1.26–3.67 0.91–4.02 | 3.00 | 1.29 0.13–2.46 0.00–2.79 | 0.00 | 3.76 1.39–6.13 0.71–6.81 | 3.00 | 63% 18% 19% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.86–2.97 0.58–3.24 | 1.00 | 2.24 1.12–3.36 0.83–3.65 | 2.00 | 4.15 1.97–6.32 1.41–6.89 | 3.00 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.05 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.18 0.76–3.59 0.38–3.98 | 1.00 | 3.08 1.53–4.64 1.10–5.07 | 3.00 | 5.26 2.29–8.23 1.47–9.05 | 4.00 | 27% 17% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.