Championship·Regular Season - 41·
Championship·Regular Season - 41·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
26%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.392.67safe0.31–2.250.54–2.250.85–4.49safer0.06–2.500.31–2.480.37–4.97
Shots on target
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.993.987.97safe2.13–5.852.23–5.724.36–11.57safer1.64–6.341.77–6.193.41–12.53
Total shots
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9611.3623.32safe8.04–15.897.80–14.9215.84–30.81safer6.95–16.986.84–15.8813.79–32.86
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction8.037.5515.58safe5.09–10.974.87–10.239.96–21.20safer4.26–11.804.13–10.978.39–22.77
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.663.457.11safe1.78–5.541.79–5.103.57–10.64safer1.23–6.091.30–5.592.54–11.68
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.244.469.70safe3.03–7.452.46–6.465.49–13.92safer2.45–8.031.93–7.004.38–15.02
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction47.3352.05safe40.54–54.1245.26–58.83safer38.87–55.7943.59–60.50
Passes
42%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction442466908safe375–509400–532775–1042safer357–528382–550739–1078
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction68.2773.69safe64.24–72.3069.36–78.01safer62.95–73.5968.05–79.32
Fouls
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1010.9024.00safe10.27–15.947.95–13.8418.22–29.78safer9.51–16.707.20–14.5916.71–31.29
Offsides
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.234.01safe0.61–2.931.14–3.331.75–6.26safer0.31–3.230.85–3.621.16–6.85
Yellow cards
44%
20%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.272.064.33safe1.22–3.320.93–3.192.15–6.51safer0.96–3.590.64–3.481.60–7.07
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84
GK saves
38%
18%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.592.795.38safe1.16–4.031.24–4.352.39–8.38safer0.77–4.420.81–4.771.58–9.19
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 0.31–2.25 0.06–2.50 | 1.39 0.54–2.25 0.31–2.48 | 2.67 0.85–4.49 0.37–4.97 | 34% 26% 40% |
| Shots on target | 3.99 2.13–5.85 1.64–6.34 | 3.98 2.23–5.72 1.77–6.19 | 7.97 4.36–11.57 3.41–12.53 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Total shots | 11.96 8.04–15.89 6.95–16.98 | 11.36 7.80–14.92 6.84–15.88 | 23.32 15.84–30.81 13.79–32.86 | 51% 41% |
| Shots in box | 8.03 5.09–10.97 4.26–11.80 | 7.55 4.87–10.23 4.13–10.97 | 15.58 9.96–21.20 8.39–22.77 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 1.78–5.54 1.23–6.09 | 3.45 1.79–5.10 1.30–5.59 | 7.11 3.57–10.64 2.54–11.68 | 46% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 5.24 3.03–7.45 2.45–8.03 | 4.46 2.46–6.46 1.93–7.00 | 9.70 5.49–13.92 4.38–15.02 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 47.33 40.54–54.12 38.87–55.79 | 52.05 45.26–58.83 43.59–60.50 | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 442 375–509 357–528 | 466 400–532 382–550 | 908 775–1042 739–1078 | 42% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.27 64.24–72.30 62.95–73.59 | 73.69 69.36–78.01 68.05–79.32 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 13.10 10.27–15.94 9.51–16.70 | 10.90 7.95–13.84 7.20–14.59 | 24.00 18.22–29.78 16.71–31.29 | 64% 29% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.31–3.23 | 2.23 1.14–3.33 0.85–3.62 | 4.01 1.75–6.26 1.16–6.85 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 2.27 1.22–3.32 0.96–3.59 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 4.33 2.15–6.51 1.60–7.07 | 44% 20% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.59 1.16–4.03 0.77–4.42 | 2.79 1.24–4.35 0.81–4.77 | 5.38 2.39–8.38 1.58–9.19 | 38% 18% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+