Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: David Webb · England
Goals
27%
23%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.783.03safe0.29–2.210.92–2.641.21–4.85safer0.03–2.470.68–2.890.70–5.36actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
43%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.614.629.23safe2.76–6.472.91–6.325.66–12.79safer2.26–6.972.44–6.794.70–13.76actual6.007.0013.00
Total shots
59%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9312.3026.23safe10.22–17.638.92–15.6819.15–33.31safer9.19–18.667.99–16.6117.19–35.27actual13.0011.0024.00
Shots in box
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction8.569.0317.59safe6.04–11.076.73–11.3312.77–22.40safer5.17–11.945.93–12.1311.11–24.07actual10.0011.0021.00
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.802.906.71safe2.22–5.391.49–4.323.71–9.70safer1.69–5.921.00–4.802.69–10.72actual0.001.001.00
Corners
50%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.595.1110.71safe3.39–7.803.14–7.096.52–14.89safer2.79–8.392.60–7.635.39–16.02actual4.004.008.00
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction47.8051.10safe41.48–54.1244.79–57.42safer39.89–55.7143.19–59.02actual51.0049.00
Passes
34%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction384434818safe319–450369–498688–948safer301–467351–516653–983actual429422851
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction78.2381.06safe74.02–82.4576.56–85.57safer72.72–83.7575.23–86.90actual82.0081.00
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3210.2320.54safe7.46–13.177.28–13.1714.74–26.34safer6.57–14.066.36–14.0912.94–28.15actual7.0012.0019.00
Offsides
80%
homeawaytotalprediction1.223.494.71safe0.01–2.432.33–4.652.34–7.08safer0.00–2.771.99–4.981.66–7.76actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.723.29safe0.51–2.630.60–2.841.11–5.47safer0.24–2.900.31–3.130.55–6.03actual0.003.003.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.430.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.973.286.25safe1.56–4.391.72–4.833.28–9.22safer1.17–4.781.29–5.262.46–10.04actual4.004.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.29–2.21 0.03–2.47 | 2.00 | 1.78 0.92–2.64 0.68–2.89 | 3.00 | 3.03 1.21–4.85 0.70–5.36 | 5.00 | 27% 23% 50% |
| Shots on target | 4.61 2.76–6.47 2.26–6.97 | 6.00 | 4.62 2.91–6.32 2.44–6.79 | 7.00 | 9.23 5.66–12.79 4.70–13.76 | 13.00 | 43% 13% 43% |
| Total shots | 13.93 10.22–17.63 9.19–18.66 | 13.00 | 12.30 8.92–15.68 7.99–16.61 | 11.00 | 26.23 19.15–33.31 17.19–35.27 | 24.00 | 59% 34% |
| Shots in box | 8.56 6.04–11.07 5.17–11.94 | 10.00 | 9.03 6.73–11.33 5.93–12.13 | 11.00 | 17.59 12.77–22.40 11.11–24.07 | 21.00 | 41% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.80 2.22–5.39 1.69–5.92 | 0.00 | 2.90 1.49–4.32 1.00–4.80 | 1.00 | 6.71 3.71–9.70 2.69–10.72 | 1.00 | 56% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 5.59 3.39–7.80 2.79–8.39 | 4.00 | 5.11 3.14–7.09 2.60–7.63 | 4.00 | 10.71 6.52–14.89 5.39–16.02 | 8.00 | 50% 38% |
| Possession % | 47.80 41.48–54.12 39.89–55.71 | 51.00 | 51.10 44.79–57.42 43.19–59.02 | 49.00 | — | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 384 319–450 301–467 | 429 | 434 369–498 351–516 | 422 | 818 688–948 653–983 | 851 | 34% 66% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.23 74.02–82.45 72.72–83.75 | 82.00 | 81.06 76.56–85.57 75.23–86.90 | 81.00 | — | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 10.32 7.46–13.17 6.57–14.06 | 7.00 | 10.23 7.28–13.17 6.36–14.09 | 12.00 | 20.54 14.74–26.34 12.94–28.15 | 19.00 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.22 0.01–2.43 0.00–2.77 | 2.00 | 3.49 2.33–4.65 1.99–4.98 | 3.00 | 4.71 2.34–7.08 1.66–7.76 | 5.00 | 80% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.51–2.63 0.24–2.90 | 0.00 | 1.72 0.60–2.84 0.31–3.13 | 3.00 | 3.29 1.11–5.47 0.55–6.03 | 3.00 | 35% 23% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.56–4.39 1.17–4.78 | 4.00 | 3.28 1.72–4.83 1.29–5.26 | 4.00 | 6.25 3.28–9.22 2.46–10.04 | 8.00 | 37% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.