Predicted match statistics
Goals
67%
17%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.541.153.69safe1.57–3.500.30–2.011.87–5.51safer1.32–3.760.07–2.241.39–5.99
Shots on target
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.173.9210.09safe4.31–8.032.18–5.666.48–13.69safer3.82–8.521.71–6.135.53–14.65
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction16.4211.5727.99safe12.49–20.348.01–15.1320.50–35.47safer11.40–21.437.05–16.0918.45–37.52
Shots in box
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction11.747.4819.22safe8.80–14.684.80–10.1613.60–24.85safer7.97–15.514.07–10.9012.03–26.41
Blocked shots
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.103.627.72safe2.22–5.981.97–5.274.18–11.25safer1.67–6.531.47–5.763.15–12.29
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.704.0110.71safe4.48–8.912.01–6.016.50–14.92safer3.91–9.481.48–6.555.39–16.03
Possession %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction56.9043.52safe50.11–63.6936.74–50.31safer48.44–65.3635.07–51.98
Passes
87%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction523389913safe456–591323–456779–1047safer438–609305–473743–1082
Pass accuracy %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction71.2871.03safe67.25–75.3166.70–75.35safer65.95–76.6065.39–76.66
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0410.6220.66safe7.20–12.887.67–13.5614.88–26.44safer6.45–13.636.93–14.3113.37–27.95
Offsides
75%
homeawaytotalprediction3.431.464.89safe2.27–4.590.37–2.552.64–7.15safer1.97–4.890.08–2.842.05–7.73
Yellow cards
26%
25%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.101.622.71safe0.05–2.150.49–2.750.54–4.89safer0.00–2.410.20–3.040.00–5.45
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.200.00–0.270.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.75
GK saves
26%
15%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.713.856.56safe1.27–4.142.29–5.413.56–9.55safer0.88–4.531.87–5.832.75–10.36
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.54 1.57–3.50 1.32–3.76 | 1.15 0.30–2.01 0.07–2.24 | 3.69 1.87–5.51 1.39–5.99 | 67% 17% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.17 4.31–8.03 3.82–8.52 | 3.92 2.18–5.66 1.71–6.13 | 10.09 6.48–13.69 5.53–14.65 | 71% 19% |
| Total shots | 16.42 12.49–20.34 11.40–21.43 | 11.57 8.01–15.13 7.05–16.09 | 27.99 20.50–35.47 18.45–37.52 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 11.74 8.80–14.68 7.97–15.51 | 7.48 4.80–10.16 4.07–10.90 | 19.22 13.60–24.85 12.03–26.41 | 81% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 4.10 2.22–5.98 1.67–6.53 | 3.62 1.97–5.27 1.47–5.76 | 7.72 4.18–11.25 3.15–12.29 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Corners | 6.70 4.48–8.91 3.91–9.48 | 4.01 2.01–6.01 1.48–6.55 | 10.71 6.50–14.92 5.39–16.03 | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 56.90 50.11–63.69 48.44–65.36 | 43.52 36.74–50.31 35.07–51.98 | — | 77% 20% |
| Passes | 523 456–591 438–609 | 389 323–456 305–473 | 913 779–1047 743–1082 | 87% 13% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.28 67.25–75.31 65.95–76.60 | 71.03 66.70–75.35 65.39–76.66 | — | 49% 46% |
| Fouls | 10.04 7.20–12.88 6.45–13.63 | 10.62 7.67–13.56 6.93–14.31 | 20.66 14.88–26.44 13.37–27.95 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 3.43 2.27–4.59 1.97–4.89 | 1.46 0.37–2.55 0.08–2.84 | 4.89 2.64–7.15 2.05–7.73 | 75% |
| Yellow cards | 1.10 0.05–2.15 0.00–2.41 | 1.62 0.49–2.75 0.20–3.04 | 2.71 0.54–4.89 0.00–5.45 | 26% 25% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.27–4.14 0.88–4.53 | 3.85 2.29–5.41 1.87–5.83 | 6.56 3.56–9.55 2.75–10.36 | 26% 15% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.