Championship·Regular Season - 6·
Championship·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Tim Robinson · England
Goals
54%
25%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.570.882.45safe0.61–2.540.02–1.740.63–4.28safer0.35–2.800.00–1.990.12–4.78actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
59%
13%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.433.257.68safe2.57–6.281.54–4.964.12–11.24safer2.07–6.781.08–5.433.15–12.21actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6210.1724.80safe10.92–18.326.80–13.5517.71–31.88safer9.89–19.365.86–14.4815.75–33.84actual18.009.0027.00
Shots in box
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction10.656.7717.43safe8.14–13.174.47–9.0812.61–22.25safer7.27–14.033.68–9.8710.95–23.91actual12.005.0017.00
Blocked shots
65%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.432.857.28safe2.84–6.011.44–4.274.28–10.28safer2.31–6.540.95–4.753.26–11.30actual6.003.009.00
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.034.2810.31safe3.83–8.242.30–6.266.13–14.49safer3.23–8.831.76–6.794.99–15.63actual13.004.0017.00
Possession %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction57.3643.17safe51.04–63.6836.85–49.49safer49.45–65.2835.26–51.09actual67.0033.00
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction479335814safe413–544270–400684–944safer396–562253–417649–979actual512248760
Pass accuracy %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction68.3963.25safe64.17–72.6158.75–67.76safer62.87–73.9157.42–69.09
Fouls
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3011.8122.12safe7.45–13.168.87–14.7616.32–27.92safer6.56–14.057.95–15.6814.51–29.72actual13.0019.0032.00
Offsides
26%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.472.143.61safe0.26–2.680.97–3.301.23–5.98safer0.00–3.020.64–3.630.56–6.65actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
24%
20%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.432.253.69safe0.38–2.491.13–3.381.51–5.86safer0.11–2.760.84–3.670.95–6.43actual2.005.007.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.070.11safe0.00–0.190.00–0.270.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.410.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
24%
17%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.983.014.99safe0.57–3.401.46–4.562.02–7.96safer0.18–3.791.02–5.001.20–8.78actual2.004.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.61–2.54 0.35–2.80 | 0.00 | 0.88 0.02–1.74 0.00–1.99 | 1.00 | 2.45 0.63–4.28 0.12–4.78 | 1.00 | 54% 25% 21% |
| Shots on target | 4.43 2.57–6.28 2.07–6.78 | 4.00 | 3.25 1.54–4.96 1.08–5.43 | 3.00 | 7.68 4.12–11.24 3.15–12.21 | 7.00 | 59% 13% 27% |
| Total shots | 14.62 10.92–18.32 9.89–19.36 | 18.00 | 10.17 6.80–13.55 5.86–14.48 | 9.00 | 24.80 17.71–31.88 15.75–33.84 | 27.00 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.65 8.14–13.17 7.27–14.03 | 12.00 | 6.77 4.47–9.08 3.68–9.87 | 5.00 | 17.43 12.61–22.25 10.95–23.91 | 17.00 | 79% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.43 2.84–6.01 2.31–6.54 | 6.00 | 2.85 1.44–4.27 0.95–4.75 | 3.00 | 7.28 4.28–10.28 3.26–11.30 | 9.00 | 65% 22% |
| Corners | 6.03 3.83–8.24 3.23–8.83 | 13.00 | 4.28 2.30–6.26 1.76–6.79 | 4.00 | 10.31 6.13–14.49 4.99–15.63 | 17.00 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 57.36 51.04–63.68 49.45–65.28 | 67.00 | 43.17 36.85–49.49 35.26–51.09 | 33.00 | — | — | 80% 17% |
| Passes | 479 413–544 396–562 | 512 | 335 270–400 253–417 | 248 | 814 684–944 649–979 | 760 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.39 64.17–72.61 62.87–73.91 | — | 63.25 58.75–67.76 57.42–69.09 | — | — | — | 72% 24% |
| Fouls | 10.30 7.45–13.16 6.56–14.05 | 13.00 | 11.81 8.87–14.76 7.95–15.68 | 19.00 | 22.12 16.32–27.92 14.51–29.72 | 32.00 | 33% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.47 0.26–2.68 0.00–3.02 | 0.00 | 2.14 0.97–3.30 0.64–3.63 | 2.00 | 3.61 1.23–5.98 0.56–6.65 | 2.00 | 26% 21% 53% |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 0.38–2.49 0.11–2.76 | 2.00 | 2.25 1.13–3.38 0.84–3.67 | 5.00 | 3.69 1.51–5.86 0.95–6.43 | 7.00 | 24% 20% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 1.98 0.57–3.40 0.18–3.79 | 2.00 | 3.01 1.46–4.56 1.02–5.00 | 4.00 | 4.99 2.02–7.96 1.20–8.78 | 6.00 | 24% 17% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+