Championship·Regular Season - 6·
Championship·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Sam Allison · England
Goals
43%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.152.59safe0.47–2.400.29–2.010.76–4.41safer0.21–2.660.05–2.260.26–4.91actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.923.938.85safe3.07–6.782.22–5.645.29–12.41safer2.57–7.281.75–6.114.32–13.38actual7.004.0011.00
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3011.7026.00safe10.60–18.008.32–15.0818.92–33.08safer9.56–19.037.39–16.0116.96–35.04actual27.0012.0039.00
Shots in box
57%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction9.438.1417.57safe6.92–11.955.84–10.4412.76–22.39safer6.05–12.815.04–11.2411.09–24.05actual19.008.0027.00
Blocked shots
65%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.593.017.60safe3.01–6.171.60–4.434.60–10.60safer2.47–6.711.11–4.913.58–11.62actual8.003.0011.00
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.664.6110.27safe3.46–7.872.64–6.596.09–14.46safer2.86–8.462.10–7.134.96–15.59actual7.005.0012.00
Possession %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction58.3442.82safe52.02–64.6536.50–49.14safer50.42–66.2534.91–50.74actual71.0029.00
Passes
86%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction460331790safe394–525266–395660–920safer377–543249–413625–955actual562230792
Pass accuracy %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction81.5874.31safe77.37–85.8069.80–78.81safer76.07–87.1068.47–80.14actual87.0068.00
Fouls
18%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7214.8025.51safe7.86–13.5711.85–17.7419.71–31.32safer6.97–14.4610.93–18.6617.91–33.12actual5.0019.0024.00
Offsides
29%
19%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.554.45safe0.69–3.111.39–3.722.08–6.82safer0.35–3.451.06–4.051.40–7.50actual2.004.006.00
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.022.154.17safe0.97–3.081.03–3.271.99–6.35safer0.70–3.350.74–3.561.43–6.91actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
24%
16%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.173.275.43safe0.75–3.581.71–4.822.47–8.40safer0.37–3.971.28–5.251.65–9.22actual3.006.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.47–2.40 0.21–2.66 | 1.00 | 1.15 0.29–2.01 0.05–2.26 | 1.00 | 2.59 0.76–4.41 0.26–4.91 | 2.00 | 43% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.92 3.07–6.78 2.57–7.28 | 7.00 | 3.93 2.22–5.64 1.75–6.11 | 4.00 | 8.85 5.29–12.41 4.32–13.38 | 11.00 | 56% 31% |
| Total shots | 14.30 10.60–18.00 9.56–19.03 | 27.00 | 11.70 8.32–15.08 7.39–16.01 | 12.00 | 26.00 18.92–33.08 16.96–35.04 | 39.00 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 9.43 6.92–11.95 6.05–12.81 | 19.00 | 8.14 5.84–10.44 5.04–11.24 | 8.00 | 17.57 12.76–22.39 11.09–24.05 | 27.00 | 57% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 4.59 3.01–6.17 2.47–6.71 | 8.00 | 3.01 1.60–4.43 1.11–4.91 | 3.00 | 7.60 4.60–10.60 3.58–11.62 | 11.00 | 65% 22% |
| Corners | 5.66 3.46–7.87 2.86–8.46 | 7.00 | 4.61 2.64–6.59 2.10–7.13 | 5.00 | 10.27 6.09–14.46 4.96–15.59 | 12.00 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 58.34 52.02–64.65 50.42–66.25 | 71.00 | 42.82 36.50–49.14 34.91–50.74 | 29.00 | — | — | 82% 15% |
| Passes | 460 394–525 377–543 | 562 | 331 266–395 249–413 | 230 | 790 660–920 625–955 | 792 | 86% 13% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.58 77.37–85.80 76.07–87.10 | 87.00 | 74.31 69.80–78.81 68.47–80.14 | 68.00 | — | — | 80% 17% |
| Fouls | 10.72 7.86–13.57 6.97–14.46 | 5.00 | 14.80 11.85–17.74 10.93–18.66 | 19.00 | 25.51 19.71–31.32 17.91–33.12 | 24.00 | 18% 76% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.69–3.11 0.35–3.45 | 2.00 | 2.55 1.39–3.72 1.06–4.05 | 4.00 | 4.45 2.08–6.82 1.40–7.50 | 6.00 | 29% 19% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 2.02 0.97–3.08 0.70–3.35 | 1.00 | 2.15 1.03–3.27 0.74–3.56 | 2.00 | 4.17 1.99–6.35 1.43–6.91 | 3.00 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.17 0.75–3.58 0.37–3.97 | 3.00 | 3.27 1.71–4.82 1.28–5.25 | 6.00 | 5.43 2.47–8.40 1.65–9.22 | 9.00 | 24% 16% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+