Championship·Regular Season - 6·
Championship·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Robert Madley · England
Goals
68%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.160.822.98safe1.20–3.130.00–1.681.16–4.80safer0.94–3.390.00–1.920.65–5.31actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
81%
homeawaytotalprediction5.592.628.21safe3.73–7.440.92–4.334.65–11.77safer3.23–7.940.45–4.803.68–12.74actual7.004.0011.00
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction16.689.0925.76safe12.97–20.385.71–12.4718.68–32.85safer11.94–21.414.78–13.4016.72–34.81actual22.0011.0033.00
Shots in box
91%
homeawaytotalprediction12.216.1318.34safe9.69–14.723.83–8.4313.52–23.15safer8.83–15.593.03–9.2311.86–24.81actual12.0011.0023.00
Blocked shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction5.852.468.31safe4.27–7.431.04–3.875.31–11.31safer3.73–7.970.56–4.364.29–12.33actual10.001.0011.00
Corners
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.863.5110.37safe4.66–9.071.53–5.496.19–14.55safer4.06–9.660.99–6.025.05–15.69actual14.001.0015.00
Possession %
98%
homeawayprediction66.7932.20safe60.48–73.1125.88–38.52safer58.88–74.7124.28–40.12actual80.0020.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction599288888safe534–665224–353758–1018safer516–682206–370723–1053actual643159802
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction79.8060.69safe75.59–84.0256.19–65.20safer74.29–85.3254.86–66.53
Fouls
17%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction8.0611.8319.89safe5.20–10.918.89–14.7814.09–25.69safer4.31–11.807.97–15.7012.28–27.49actual3.0012.0015.00
Offsides
24%
19%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.532.363.89safe0.32–2.741.20–3.521.52–6.26safer0.00–3.080.87–3.860.84–6.94actual4.003.007.00
Yellow cards
24%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.422.213.63safe0.37–2.481.09–3.331.46–5.81safer0.09–2.750.80–3.620.89–6.37actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.060.10safe0.00–0.190.00–0.250.00–0.44safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.74actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
19%
15%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction1.893.395.28safe0.48–3.311.84–4.942.32–8.25safer0.09–3.701.40–5.381.50–9.07actual2.005.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.16 1.20–3.13 0.94–3.39 | 2.00 | 0.82 0.00–1.68 0.00–1.92 | 2.00 | 2.98 1.16–4.80 0.65–5.31 | 4.00 | 68% 19% |
| Shots on target | 5.59 3.73–7.44 3.23–7.94 | 7.00 | 2.62 0.92–4.33 0.45–4.80 | 4.00 | 8.21 4.65–11.77 3.68–12.74 | 11.00 | 81% |
| Total shots | 16.68 12.97–20.38 11.94–21.41 | 22.00 | 9.09 5.71–12.47 4.78–13.40 | 11.00 | 25.76 18.68–32.85 16.72–34.81 | 33.00 | 92% |
| Shots in box | 12.21 9.69–14.72 8.83–15.59 | 12.00 | 6.13 3.83–8.43 3.03–9.23 | 11.00 | 18.34 13.52–23.15 11.86–24.81 | 23.00 | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 5.85 4.27–7.43 3.73–7.97 | 10.00 | 2.46 1.04–3.87 0.56–4.36 | 1.00 | 8.31 5.31–11.31 4.29–12.33 | 11.00 | 85% |
| Corners | 6.86 4.66–9.07 4.06–9.66 | 14.00 | 3.51 1.53–5.49 0.99–6.02 | 1.00 | 10.37 6.19–14.55 5.05–15.69 | 15.00 | 81% |
| Possession % | 66.79 60.48–73.11 58.88–74.71 | 80.00 | 32.20 25.88–38.52 24.28–40.12 | 20.00 | — | — | 98% |
| Passes | 599 534–665 516–682 | 643 | 288 224–353 206–370 | 159 | 888 758–1018 723–1053 | 802 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.80 75.59–84.02 74.29–85.32 | — | 60.69 56.19–65.20 54.86–66.53 | — | — | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 8.06 5.20–10.91 4.31–11.80 | 3.00 | 11.83 8.89–14.78 7.97–15.70 | 12.00 | 19.89 14.09–25.69 12.28–27.49 | 15.00 | 17% 77% |
| Offsides | 1.53 0.32–2.74 0.00–3.08 | 4.00 | 2.36 1.20–3.52 0.87–3.86 | 3.00 | 3.89 1.52–6.26 0.84–6.94 | 7.00 | 24% 19% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 1.42 0.37–2.48 0.09–2.75 | 1.00 | 2.21 1.09–3.33 0.80–3.62 | 1.00 | 3.63 1.46–5.81 0.89–6.37 | 2.00 | 24% 20% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.44 0.00–0.74 | 0.00 | 91% |
| GK saves | 1.89 0.48–3.31 0.09–3.70 | 2.00 | 3.39 1.84–4.94 1.40–5.38 | 5.00 | 5.28 2.32–8.25 1.50–9.07 | 7.00 | 19% 15% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.