Championship·Regular Season - 6·
Championship·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Lewis Smith · England
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.192.68safe0.54–2.460.33–2.050.86–4.51safer0.28–2.720.08–2.290.35–5.01actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.034.189.21safe3.18–6.892.47–5.895.65–12.78safer2.68–7.392.00–6.364.68–13.74actual4.002.006.00
Total shots
51%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6413.0426.68safe9.94–17.349.66–16.4219.60–33.76safer8.91–18.378.73–17.3517.64–35.73actual16.0010.0026.00
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction9.728.3218.04safe7.20–12.246.01–10.6213.22–22.85safer6.34–13.105.22–11.4111.56–24.51actual16.004.0020.00
Blocked shots
45%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.063.887.94safe2.47–5.642.47–5.304.94–10.94safer1.94–6.171.98–5.783.92–11.96actual4.004.008.00
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.264.649.90safe3.06–7.472.66–6.615.71–14.08safer2.46–8.062.12–7.154.58–15.21actual9.003.0012.00
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction49.8049.08safe43.49–56.1242.76–55.40safer41.89–57.7241.16–56.99actual47.0053.00
Passes
55%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction446430876safe381–511366–495746–1006safer363–529348–512711–1041actual449498947
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction83.0981.54safe78.88–87.3177.03–86.04safer77.58–88.6175.70–87.37actual86.0086.00
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1212.9823.10safe7.26–12.9810.03–15.9217.29–28.90safer6.38–13.869.11–16.8415.49–30.70actual10.0010.0020.00
Offsides
73%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction3.091.294.38safe1.89–4.300.13–2.452.01–6.75safer1.54–4.650.00–2.781.33–7.43actual5.003.008.00
Yellow cards
26%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.732.534.25safe0.67–2.781.41–3.652.08–6.43safer0.40–3.061.12–3.941.52–6.99actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.200.00–0.290.00–0.49safer0.00–0.350.00–0.430.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.753.155.89safe1.33–4.161.59–4.702.92–8.86safer0.94–4.551.16–5.132.10–9.68actual1.001.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.54–2.46 0.28–2.72 | 3.00 | 1.19 0.33–2.05 0.08–2.29 | 1.00 | 2.68 0.86–4.51 0.35–5.01 | 4.00 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.03 3.18–6.89 2.68–7.39 | 4.00 | 4.18 2.47–5.89 2.00–6.36 | 2.00 | 9.21 5.65–12.78 4.68–13.74 | 6.00 | 54% 33% |
| Total shots | 13.64 9.94–17.34 8.91–18.37 | 16.00 | 13.04 9.66–16.42 8.73–17.35 | 10.00 | 26.68 19.60–33.76 17.64–35.73 | 26.00 | 51% 42% |
| Shots in box | 9.72 7.20–12.24 6.34–13.10 | 16.00 | 8.32 6.01–10.62 5.22–11.41 | 4.00 | 18.04 13.22–22.85 11.56–24.51 | 20.00 | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 4.06 2.47–5.64 1.94–6.17 | 4.00 | 3.88 2.47–5.30 1.98–5.78 | 4.00 | 7.94 4.94–10.94 3.92–11.96 | 8.00 | 45% 14% 40% |
| Corners | 5.26 3.06–7.47 2.46–8.06 | 9.00 | 4.64 2.66–6.61 2.12–7.15 | 3.00 | 9.90 5.71–14.08 4.58–15.21 | 12.00 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 49.80 43.49–56.12 41.89–57.72 | 47.00 | 49.08 42.76–55.40 41.16–56.99 | 53.00 | — | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 446 381–511 363–529 | 449 | 430 366–495 348–512 | 498 | 876 746–1006 711–1041 | 947 | 55% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.09 78.88–87.31 77.58–88.61 | 86.00 | 81.54 77.03–86.04 75.70–87.37 | 86.00 | — | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 10.12 7.26–12.98 6.38–13.86 | 10.00 | 12.98 10.03–15.92 9.11–16.84 | 10.00 | 23.10 17.29–28.90 15.49–30.70 | 20.00 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 3.09 1.89–4.30 1.54–4.65 | 5.00 | 1.29 0.13–2.45 0.00–2.78 | 3.00 | 4.38 2.01–6.75 1.33–7.43 | 8.00 | 73% 14% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.67–2.78 0.40–3.06 | 0.00 | 2.53 1.41–3.65 1.12–3.94 | 1.00 | 4.25 2.08–6.43 1.52–6.99 | 1.00 | 26% 19% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.75 1.33–4.16 0.94–4.55 | 1.00 | 3.15 1.59–4.70 1.16–5.13 | 1.00 | 5.89 2.92–8.86 2.10–9.68 | 2.00 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+