Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Farai Hallam · England
Goals
43%
27%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.082.44safe0.40–2.330.22–1.940.62–4.27safer0.14–2.590.00–2.180.12–4.77actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.643.648.29safe2.79–6.501.94–5.354.72–11.85safer2.29–7.001.47–5.823.76–12.82actual5.006.0011.00
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4211.6826.11safe10.72–18.138.30–15.0619.02–33.19safer9.69–19.167.37–15.9917.06–35.15actual15.0018.0033.00
Shots in box
67%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.166.8816.04safe6.64–11.684.57–9.1811.22–20.85safer5.78–12.543.78–9.979.56–22.51actual11.0010.0021.00
Blocked shots
56%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.273.347.61safe2.68–5.851.93–4.764.61–10.61safer2.15–6.381.44–5.243.59–11.63actual3.006.009.00
Corners
61%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.714.3610.07safe3.51–7.922.38–6.345.89–14.26safer2.91–8.511.84–6.884.76–15.39actual2.004.006.00
Possession %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction52.6446.67safe46.32–58.9540.35–52.99safer44.72–60.5538.75–54.58actual61.0039.00
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction421361782safe356–487296–425652–912safer338–504278–443617–947actual526319845
Pass accuracy %
69%
26%
homeawayprediction79.2174.62safe75.00–83.4370.11–79.13safer73.70–84.7368.78–80.46actual83.0076.00
Fouls
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2813.5924.87safe8.42–14.1310.65–16.5419.07–30.67safer7.53–15.029.73–17.4617.26–32.48actual7.0010.0017.00
Offsides
52%
19%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.491.854.33safe1.28–3.700.68–3.011.96–6.71safer0.93–4.040.35–3.341.28–7.38actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
25%
19%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.682.504.18safe0.62–2.731.38–3.622.00–6.35safer0.35–3.011.09–3.911.44–6.91actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
26%
16%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.263.255.50safe0.84–3.671.69–4.802.54–8.47safer0.45–4.061.26–5.231.71–9.29actual5.003.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.33 0.14–2.59 | 2.00 | 1.08 0.22–1.94 0.00–2.18 | 1.00 | 2.44 0.62–4.27 0.12–4.77 | 3.00 | 43% 27% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.64 2.79–6.50 2.29–7.00 | 5.00 | 3.64 1.94–5.35 1.47–5.82 | 6.00 | 8.29 4.72–11.85 3.76–12.82 | 11.00 | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.42 10.72–18.13 9.69–19.16 | 15.00 | 11.68 8.30–15.06 7.37–15.99 | 18.00 | 26.11 19.02–33.19 17.06–35.15 | 33.00 | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 9.16 6.64–11.68 5.78–12.54 | 11.00 | 6.88 4.57–9.18 3.78–9.97 | 10.00 | 16.04 11.22–20.85 9.56–22.51 | 21.00 | 67% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 4.27 2.68–5.85 2.15–6.38 | 3.00 | 3.34 1.93–4.76 1.44–5.24 | 6.00 | 7.61 4.61–10.61 3.59–11.63 | 9.00 | 56% 14% 30% |
| Corners | 5.71 3.51–7.92 2.91–8.51 | 2.00 | 4.36 2.38–6.34 1.84–6.88 | 4.00 | 10.07 5.89–14.26 4.76–15.39 | 6.00 | 61% 28% |
| Possession % | 52.64 46.32–58.95 44.72–60.55 | 61.00 | 46.67 40.35–52.99 38.75–54.58 | 39.00 | — | — | 62% 33% |
| Passes | 421 356–487 338–504 | 526 | 361 296–425 278–443 | 319 | 782 652–912 617–947 | 845 | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.21 75.00–83.43 73.70–84.73 | 83.00 | 74.62 70.11–79.13 68.78–80.46 | 76.00 | — | — | 69% 26% |
| Fouls | 11.28 8.42–14.13 7.53–15.02 | 7.00 | 13.59 10.65–16.54 9.73–17.46 | 10.00 | 24.87 19.07–30.67 17.26–32.48 | 17.00 | 29% 64% |
| Offsides | 2.49 1.28–3.70 0.93–4.04 | 2.00 | 1.85 0.68–3.01 0.35–3.34 | 1.00 | 4.33 1.96–6.71 1.28–7.38 | 3.00 | 52% 19% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.62–2.73 0.35–3.01 | 0.00 | 2.50 1.38–3.62 1.09–3.91 | 2.00 | 4.18 2.00–6.35 1.44–6.91 | 2.00 | 25% 19% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.26 0.84–3.67 0.45–4.06 | 5.00 | 3.25 1.69–4.80 1.26–5.23 | 3.00 | 5.50 2.54–8.47 1.71–9.29 | 8.00 | 26% 16% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+