Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.433.00safe0.60–2.530.58–2.291.17–4.82safer0.35–2.780.35–2.510.69–5.30
Shots on target
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.734.639.35safe2.87–6.592.88–6.375.75–12.96safer2.38–7.082.42–6.834.79–13.92
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1113.2228.33safe11.18–19.039.66–16.7820.84–35.82safer10.09–20.128.70–17.7418.79–37.87
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction9.558.5218.07safe6.61–12.495.84–11.2012.45–23.70safer5.78–13.325.10–11.9410.88–25.26
Blocked shots
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.363.738.09safe2.48–6.242.08–5.384.56–11.63safer1.93–6.791.59–5.883.52–12.66
Corners
48%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.365.0210.38safe3.15–7.573.02–7.026.17–14.59safer2.57–8.152.49–7.555.06–15.70
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction44.3655.88safe37.57–51.1549.10–62.67safer35.90–52.8247.42–64.34
Passes
20%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction361460821safe294–428394–527688–955safer275–446376–544652–991
Pass accuracy %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction65.8273.01safe61.80–69.8568.68–77.33safer60.50–71.1567.38–78.64
Fouls
37%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9411.9822.92safe8.11–13.789.03–14.9217.14–28.70safer7.35–14.548.29–15.6715.64–30.21
Offsides
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.702.183.88safe0.53–2.861.09–3.271.62–6.13safer0.23–3.160.80–3.561.03–6.72
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.853.66safe0.76–2.860.72–2.981.48–5.84safer0.49–3.120.43–3.270.92–6.39
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.853.065.91safe1.42–4.291.50–4.612.92–8.90safer1.03–4.681.08–5.042.11–9.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.60–2.53 0.35–2.78 | 1.43 0.58–2.29 0.35–2.51 | 3.00 1.17–4.82 0.69–5.30 | 41% 24% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.73 2.87–6.59 2.38–7.08 | 4.63 2.88–6.37 2.42–6.83 | 9.35 5.75–12.96 4.79–13.92 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Total shots | 15.11 11.18–19.03 10.09–20.12 | 13.22 9.66–16.78 8.70–17.74 | 28.33 20.84–35.82 18.79–37.87 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.55 6.61–12.49 5.78–13.32 | 8.52 5.84–11.20 5.10–11.94 | 18.07 12.45–23.70 10.88–25.26 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 4.36 2.48–6.24 1.93–6.79 | 3.73 2.08–5.38 1.59–5.88 | 8.09 4.56–11.63 3.52–12.66 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Corners | 5.36 3.15–7.57 2.57–8.15 | 5.02 3.02–7.02 2.49–7.55 | 10.38 6.17–14.59 5.06–15.70 | 48% 40% |
| Possession % | 44.36 37.57–51.15 35.90–52.82 | 55.88 49.10–62.67 47.42–64.34 | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 361 294–428 275–446 | 460 394–527 376–544 | 821 688–955 652–991 | 20% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.82 61.80–69.85 60.50–71.15 | 73.01 68.68–77.33 67.38–78.64 | — | 16% 81% |
| Fouls | 10.94 8.11–13.78 7.35–14.54 | 11.98 9.03–14.92 8.29–15.67 | 22.92 17.14–28.70 15.64–30.21 | 37% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.53–2.86 0.23–3.16 | 2.18 1.09–3.27 0.80–3.56 | 3.88 1.62–6.13 1.03–6.72 | 30% 21% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.76–2.86 0.49–3.12 | 1.85 0.72–2.98 0.43–3.27 | 3.66 1.48–5.84 0.92–6.39 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.42–4.29 1.03–4.68 | 3.06 1.50–4.61 1.08–5.04 | 5.91 2.92–8.90 2.11–9.72 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.