Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Tom Nield · England
Goals
35%
28%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.212.39safe0.21–2.140.35–2.070.57–4.21safer0.00–2.400.10–2.320.06–4.72actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
47%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.053.727.77safe2.20–5.912.01–5.434.21–11.34safer1.70–6.411.54–5.903.24–12.30actual0.002.002.00
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0212.6525.67safe9.32–16.739.27–16.0318.59–32.75safer8.29–17.768.34–16.9616.63–34.71actual9.0015.0024.00
Shots in box
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction7.879.2317.11safe5.36–10.396.93–11.5412.29–21.92safer4.49–11.256.14–12.3310.63–23.59actual4.008.0012.00
Blocked shots
37%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.694.077.76safe2.11–5.282.66–5.484.76–10.76safer1.57–5.812.17–5.973.74–11.78actual4.005.009.00
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.184.8910.06safe2.97–7.382.91–6.865.88–14.24safer2.37–7.982.37–7.404.74–15.38actual5.0012.0017.00
Possession %
33%
63%
homeawayprediction46.3252.47safe40.00–52.6446.15–58.79safer38.41–54.2344.55–60.39actual28.0072.00
Passes
27%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction361431793safe296–427367–496663–923safer279–444349–514628–958actual254666920
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction72.9177.65safe68.69–77.1273.15–82.16safer67.39–78.4371.82–83.49actual77.0092.00
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7310.7421.47safe7.88–13.597.80–13.6915.67–27.28safer6.99–14.486.88–14.6013.87–29.08actual8.0010.0018.00
Offsides
54%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.122.92safe0.60–3.020.00–2.280.55–5.30safer0.25–3.360.00–2.610.00–5.97actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.733.56safe0.78–2.890.61–2.851.39–5.74safer0.51–3.170.32–3.140.83–6.30actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.13safe0.00–0.190.00–0.280.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.420.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
40%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.592.665.24safe1.17–4.001.10–4.212.28–8.21safer0.78–4.390.67–4.641.45–9.03actual2.000.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.21–2.14 0.00–2.40 | 0.00 | 1.21 0.35–2.07 0.10–2.32 | 0.00 | 2.39 0.57–4.21 0.06–4.72 | 0.00 | 35% 28% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.05 2.20–5.91 1.70–6.41 | 0.00 | 3.72 2.01–5.43 1.54–5.90 | 2.00 | 7.77 4.21–11.34 3.24–12.30 | 2.00 | 47% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 13.02 9.32–16.73 8.29–17.76 | 9.00 | 12.65 9.27–16.03 8.34–16.96 | 15.00 | 25.67 18.59–32.75 16.63–34.71 | 24.00 | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 7.87 5.36–10.39 4.49–11.25 | 4.00 | 9.23 6.93–11.54 6.14–12.33 | 8.00 | 17.11 12.29–21.92 10.63–23.59 | 12.00 | 33% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.69 2.11–5.28 1.57–5.81 | 4.00 | 4.07 2.66–5.48 2.17–5.97 | 5.00 | 7.76 4.76–10.76 3.74–11.78 | 9.00 | 37% 14% 48% |
| Corners | 5.18 2.97–7.38 2.37–7.98 | 5.00 | 4.89 2.91–6.86 2.37–7.40 | 12.00 | 10.06 5.88–14.24 4.74–15.38 | 17.00 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 46.32 40.00–52.64 38.41–54.23 | 28.00 | 52.47 46.15–58.79 44.55–60.39 | 72.00 | — | — | 33% 63% |
| Passes | 361 296–427 279–444 | 254 | 431 367–496 349–514 | 666 | 793 663–923 628–958 | 920 | 27% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.91 68.69–77.12 67.39–78.43 | 77.00 | 77.65 73.15–82.16 71.82–83.49 | 92.00 | — | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 10.73 7.88–13.59 6.99–14.48 | 8.00 | 10.74 7.80–13.69 6.88–14.60 | 10.00 | 21.47 15.67–27.28 13.87–29.08 | 18.00 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.60–3.02 0.25–3.36 | 2.00 | 1.12 0.00–2.28 0.00–2.61 | 1.00 | 2.92 0.55–5.30 0.00–5.97 | 3.00 | 54% 23% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.78–2.89 0.51–3.17 | 0.00 | 1.73 0.61–2.85 0.32–3.14 | 2.00 | 3.56 1.39–5.74 0.83–6.30 | 2.00 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.59 1.17–4.00 0.78–4.39 | 2.00 | 2.66 1.10–4.21 0.67–4.64 | 0.00 | 5.24 2.28–8.21 1.45–9.03 | 2.00 | 40% 18% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.