Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: James Bell · England
Goals
34%
28%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.161.242.40safe0.20–2.120.38–2.100.57–4.22safer0.00–2.380.13–2.340.07–4.73actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.744.207.94safe1.88–5.602.49–5.904.37–11.50safer1.38–6.092.02–6.373.40–12.47actual3.001.004.00
Total shots
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8212.9524.77safe8.12–15.529.57–16.3317.69–31.85safer7.09–16.558.64–17.2615.73–33.81actual13.004.0017.00
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.158.0716.22safe5.63–10.675.77–10.3711.40–21.04safer4.77–11.534.97–11.179.74–22.70actual7.004.0011.00
Blocked shots
36%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.433.857.28safe1.84–5.012.44–5.274.28–10.28safer1.31–5.541.95–5.753.26–11.30actual3.000.003.00
Corners
44%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.155.1710.32safe2.95–7.363.19–7.156.14–14.51safer2.35–7.962.65–7.695.01–15.64actual11.003.0014.00
Possession %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction43.8557.94safe37.53–50.1751.62–64.26safer35.94–51.7750.02–65.85actual67.0033.00
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction371494865safe306–437429–559735–995safer288–454412–576700–1030actual539280819
Pass accuracy %
35%
61%
homeawayprediction73.6876.38safe69.47–77.9071.87–80.89safer68.16–79.2070.54–82.22actual89.0073.00
Fouls
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction12.839.4622.29safe9.97–15.696.52–12.4116.49–28.10safer9.09–16.575.60–13.3314.69–29.90actual12.009.0021.00
Offsides
43%
23%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.533.28safe0.54–2.960.36–2.690.90–5.65safer0.20–3.300.03–3.020.23–6.32actual4.004.008.00
Yellow cards
46%
20%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.171.864.02safe1.11–3.220.74–2.981.85–6.20safer0.84–3.500.45–3.271.29–6.76actual0.004.004.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.82actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
59%
16%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.262.205.45safe1.84–4.670.64–3.752.49–8.42safer1.46–5.060.21–4.181.67–9.24actual0.003.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.20–2.12 0.00–2.38 | 0.00 | 1.24 0.38–2.10 0.13–2.34 | 1.00 | 2.40 0.57–4.22 0.07–4.73 | 1.00 | 34% 28% 38% |
| Shots on target | 3.74 1.88–5.60 1.38–6.09 | 3.00 | 4.20 2.49–5.90 2.02–6.37 | 1.00 | 7.94 4.37–11.50 3.40–12.47 | 4.00 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Total shots | 11.82 8.12–15.52 7.09–16.55 | 13.00 | 12.95 9.57–16.33 8.64–17.26 | 4.00 | 24.77 17.69–31.85 15.73–33.81 | 17.00 | 37% 55% |
| Shots in box | 8.15 5.63–10.67 4.77–11.53 | 7.00 | 8.07 5.77–10.37 4.97–11.17 | 4.00 | 16.22 11.40–21.04 9.74–22.70 | 11.00 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.43 1.84–5.01 1.31–5.54 | 3.00 | 3.85 2.44–5.27 1.95–5.75 | 0.00 | 7.28 4.28–10.28 3.26–11.30 | 3.00 | 36% 15% 49% |
| Corners | 5.15 2.95–7.36 2.35–7.96 | 11.00 | 5.17 3.19–7.15 2.65–7.69 | 3.00 | 10.32 6.14–14.51 5.01–15.64 | 14.00 | 44% 44% |
| Possession % | 43.85 37.53–50.17 35.94–51.77 | 67.00 | 57.94 51.62–64.26 50.02–65.85 | 33.00 | — | — | 17% 80% |
| Passes | 371 306–437 288–454 | 539 | 494 429–559 412–576 | 280 | 865 735–995 700–1030 | 819 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.68 69.47–77.90 68.16–79.20 | 89.00 | 76.38 71.87–80.89 70.54–82.22 | 73.00 | — | — | 35% 61% |
| Fouls | 12.83 9.97–15.69 9.09–16.57 | 12.00 | 9.46 6.52–12.41 5.60–13.33 | 9.00 | 22.29 16.49–28.10 14.69–29.90 | 21.00 | 73% 21% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.54–2.96 0.20–3.30 | 4.00 | 1.53 0.36–2.69 0.03–3.02 | 4.00 | 3.28 0.90–5.65 0.23–6.32 | 8.00 | 43% 23% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 2.17 1.11–3.22 0.84–3.50 | 0.00 | 1.86 0.74–2.98 0.45–3.27 | 4.00 | 4.02 1.85–6.20 1.29–6.76 | 4.00 | 46% 20% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 1.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 1.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.26 1.84–4.67 1.46–5.06 | 0.00 | 2.20 0.64–3.75 0.21–4.18 | 3.00 | 5.45 2.49–8.42 1.67–9.24 | 3.00 | 59% 16% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.