Championship·Regular Season - 6·
Championship·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Tom Reeves · England
Goals
55%
23%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.042.83safe0.84–2.760.18–1.891.01–4.66safer0.58–3.020.00–2.140.51–5.16actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.373.338.70safe3.51–7.221.63–5.045.14–12.26safer3.01–7.721.16–5.514.17–13.23actual6.003.009.00
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction14.888.9123.80safe11.18–18.595.54–12.2916.72–30.88safer10.15–19.624.60–13.2214.75–32.84actual15.0014.0029.00
Shots in box
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction10.506.5117.01safe7.98–13.014.21–8.8112.19–21.82safer7.12–13.883.41–9.6110.53–23.49actual8.0011.0019.00
Blocked shots
70%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.232.356.59safe2.65–5.820.94–3.773.59–9.58safer2.11–6.350.45–4.252.57–10.60actual5.004.009.00
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.764.019.77safe3.56–7.972.03–5.985.58–13.95safer2.96–8.561.49–6.524.45–15.08actual6.007.0013.00
Possession %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction57.2943.08safe50.97–63.6136.76–49.40safer49.38–65.2135.16–50.99actual50.0050.00
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction483323806safe418–548259–388676–936safer400–566241–405641–971actual339327666
Pass accuracy %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction74.1966.92safe69.98–78.4162.41–71.43safer68.68–79.7161.08–72.76actual71.0067.00
Fouls
22%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1613.4723.63safe7.31–13.0210.52–16.4117.83–29.43safer6.42–13.919.60–17.3316.03–31.24actual12.009.0021.00
Offsides
15%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction1.893.835.72safe0.68–3.102.67–5.003.35–8.09safer0.34–3.442.34–5.332.67–8.77actual3.004.007.00
Yellow cards
25%
19%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.484.10safe0.57–2.681.36–3.601.93–6.28safer0.29–2.951.07–3.891.37–6.84actual6.002.008.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
23%
16%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.083.305.38safe0.67–3.501.74–4.852.41–8.35safer0.28–3.891.31–5.281.59–9.17actual2.004.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.80 0.84–2.76 0.58–3.02 | 2.00 | 1.04 0.18–1.89 0.00–2.14 | 1.00 | 2.83 1.01–4.66 0.51–5.16 | 3.00 | 55% 23% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.37 3.51–7.22 3.01–7.72 | 6.00 | 3.33 1.63–5.04 1.16–5.51 | 3.00 | 8.70 5.14–12.26 4.17–13.23 | 9.00 | 70% 19% |
| Total shots | 14.88 11.18–18.59 10.15–19.62 | 15.00 | 8.91 5.54–12.29 4.60–13.22 | 14.00 | 23.80 16.72–30.88 14.75–32.84 | 29.00 | 87% |
| Shots in box | 10.50 7.98–13.01 7.12–13.88 | 8.00 | 6.51 4.21–8.81 3.41–9.61 | 11.00 | 17.01 12.19–21.82 10.53–23.49 | 19.00 | 80% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 4.23 2.65–5.82 2.11–6.35 | 5.00 | 2.35 0.94–3.77 0.45–4.25 | 4.00 | 6.59 3.59–9.58 2.57–10.60 | 9.00 | 70% 17% |
| Corners | 5.76 3.56–7.97 2.96–8.56 | 6.00 | 4.01 2.03–5.98 1.49–6.52 | 7.00 | 9.77 5.58–13.95 4.45–15.08 | 13.00 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 57.29 50.97–63.61 49.38–65.21 | 50.00 | 43.08 36.76–49.40 35.16–50.99 | 50.00 | — | — | 80% 17% |
| Passes | 483 418–548 400–566 | 339 | 323 259–388 241–405 | 327 | 806 676–936 641–971 | 666 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.19 69.98–78.41 68.68–79.71 | 71.00 | 66.92 62.41–71.43 61.08–72.76 | 67.00 | — | — | 80% 17% |
| Fouls | 10.16 7.31–13.02 6.42–13.91 | 12.00 | 13.47 10.52–16.41 9.60–17.33 | 9.00 | 23.63 17.83–29.43 16.03–31.24 | 21.00 | 22% 72% |
| Offsides | 1.89 0.68–3.10 0.34–3.44 | 3.00 | 3.83 2.67–5.00 2.34–5.33 | 4.00 | 5.72 3.35–8.09 2.67–8.77 | 7.00 | 15% 73% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.68 0.29–2.95 | 6.00 | 2.48 1.36–3.60 1.07–3.89 | 2.00 | 4.10 1.93–6.28 1.37–6.84 | 8.00 | 25% 19% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.08 0.67–3.50 0.28–3.89 | 2.00 | 3.30 1.74–4.85 1.31–5.28 | 4.00 | 5.38 2.41–8.35 1.59–9.17 | 6.00 | 23% 16% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.