Championship·Regular Season - 41·
Championship·Regular Season - 41·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
25%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.392.76safe0.40–2.340.53–2.240.94–4.58safer0.15–2.590.31–2.470.46–5.06
Shots on target
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.204.368.56safe2.34–6.062.62–6.114.96–12.17safer1.85–6.552.15–6.574.00–13.12
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0612.5625.62safe9.14–16.999.00–16.1218.13–33.11safer8.05–18.088.04–17.0816.08–35.16
Shots in box
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction8.698.8317.51safe5.74–11.636.14–11.5111.89–23.14safer4.92–12.465.41–12.2410.32–24.70
Blocked shots
34%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.474.077.54safe1.59–5.352.42–5.734.01–11.08safer1.04–5.901.93–6.222.97–12.11
Corners
48%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.445.1010.54safe3.22–7.653.10–7.106.32–14.75safer2.65–8.232.56–7.635.21–15.86
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction46.0154.92safe39.22–52.8048.14–61.71safer37.55–54.4746.46–63.38
Passes
27%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction352425777safe285–419358–491643–910safer266–437341–509607–946
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction63.1872.26safe59.15–67.2167.94–76.58safer57.86–68.5166.63–77.89
Fouls
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0410.5822.62safe9.20–14.887.64–13.5316.84–28.41safer8.45–15.636.89–14.2815.34–29.91
Offsides
56%
16%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.422.525.94safe2.26–4.581.43–3.623.69–8.20safer1.96–4.881.14–3.913.10–8.79
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.141.994.13safe1.09–3.190.86–3.121.95–6.31safer0.82–3.450.57–3.411.39–6.86
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.702.865.56safe1.26–4.131.31–4.422.57–8.55safer0.87–4.520.88–4.841.76–9.37
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.34 0.15–2.59 | 1.39 0.53–2.24 0.31–2.47 | 2.76 0.94–4.58 0.46–5.06 | 37% 25% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.20 2.34–6.06 1.85–6.55 | 4.36 2.62–6.11 2.15–6.57 | 8.56 4.96–12.17 4.00–13.12 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 13.06 9.14–16.99 8.05–18.08 | 12.56 9.00–16.12 8.04–17.08 | 25.62 18.13–33.11 16.08–35.16 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.69 5.74–11.63 4.92–12.46 | 8.83 6.14–11.51 5.41–12.24 | 17.51 11.89–23.14 10.32–24.70 | 44% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.47 1.59–5.35 1.04–5.90 | 4.07 2.42–5.73 1.93–6.22 | 7.54 4.01–11.08 2.97–12.11 | 34% 14% 51% |
| Corners | 5.44 3.22–7.65 2.65–8.23 | 5.10 3.10–7.10 2.56–7.63 | 10.54 6.32–14.75 5.21–15.86 | 48% 40% |
| Possession % | 46.01 39.22–52.80 37.55–54.47 | 54.92 48.14–61.71 46.46–63.38 | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 352 285–419 266–437 | 425 358–491 341–509 | 777 643–910 607–946 | 27% 73% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.18 59.15–67.21 57.86–68.51 | 72.26 67.94–76.58 66.63–77.89 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 12.04 9.20–14.88 8.45–15.63 | 10.58 7.64–13.53 6.89–14.28 | 22.62 16.84–28.41 15.34–29.91 | 58% 34% |
| Offsides | 3.42 2.26–4.58 1.96–4.88 | 2.52 1.43–3.62 1.14–3.91 | 5.94 3.69–8.20 3.10–8.79 | 56% 16% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.14 1.09–3.19 0.82–3.45 | 1.99 0.86–3.12 0.57–3.41 | 4.13 1.95–6.31 1.39–6.86 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.70 1.26–4.13 0.87–4.52 | 2.86 1.31–4.42 0.88–4.84 | 5.56 2.57–8.55 1.76–9.37 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.