Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Tim Robinson · England
Goals
51%
26%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.550.972.52safe0.59–2.510.11–1.830.70–4.35safer0.33–2.770.00–2.080.19–4.85actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.213.228.43safe3.36–7.071.51–4.934.87–12.00safer2.86–7.571.04–5.393.90–12.96actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction14.689.5324.22safe10.98–18.396.16–12.9117.13–31.30safer9.95–19.425.22–13.8415.17–33.26actual15.0019.0034.00
Shots in box
85%
homeawaytotalprediction10.756.1016.86safe8.23–13.273.80–8.4112.04–21.67safer7.37–14.133.01–9.2010.38–23.33actual13.0010.0023.00
Blocked shots
56%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.752.886.64safe2.17–5.341.47–4.303.64–9.64safer1.64–5.870.98–4.792.62–10.66actual1.007.008.00
Corners
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.153.769.91safe3.94–8.351.79–5.745.73–14.09safer3.35–8.951.25–6.284.59–15.23actual4.004.008.00
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction50.4147.86safe44.09–56.7341.54–54.17safer42.50–58.3239.94–55.77actual53.0047.00
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction471429899safe405–536364–493770–1029safer388–554347–511734–1065actual517469986
Pass accuracy %
76%
21%
homeawayprediction77.5571.48safe73.34–81.7766.97–75.98safer72.04–83.0765.64–77.31actual84.0084.00
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9310.8620.79safe7.08–12.797.91–13.8014.99–26.60safer6.19–13.687.00–14.7213.19–28.40actual12.0015.0027.00
Offsides
72%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.851.174.02safe1.64–4.060.01–2.341.65–6.40safer1.30–4.400.00–2.670.97–7.07actual1.003.004.00
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.903.43safe0.48–2.590.78–3.021.26–5.61safer0.20–2.860.49–3.310.69–6.17actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.200.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.430.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
26%
16%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.163.145.30safe0.74–3.571.58–4.692.33–8.26safer0.35–3.961.15–5.121.51–9.08actual2.004.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.59–2.51 0.33–2.77 | 1.00 | 0.97 0.11–1.83 0.00–2.08 | 1.00 | 2.52 0.70–4.35 0.19–4.85 | 2.00 | 51% 26% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.21 3.36–7.07 2.86–7.57 | 5.00 | 3.22 1.51–4.93 1.04–5.39 | 4.00 | 8.43 4.87–12.00 3.90–12.96 | 9.00 | 70% 19% |
| Total shots | 14.68 10.98–18.39 9.95–19.42 | 15.00 | 9.53 6.16–12.91 5.22–13.84 | 19.00 | 24.22 17.13–31.30 15.17–33.26 | 34.00 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 10.75 8.23–13.27 7.37–14.13 | 13.00 | 6.10 3.80–8.41 3.01–9.20 | 10.00 | 16.86 12.04–21.67 10.38–23.33 | 23.00 | 85% |
| Blocked shots | 3.75 2.17–5.34 1.64–5.87 | 1.00 | 2.88 1.47–4.30 0.98–4.79 | 7.00 | 6.64 3.64–9.64 2.62–10.66 | 8.00 | 56% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 6.15 3.94–8.35 3.35–8.95 | 4.00 | 3.76 1.79–5.74 1.25–6.28 | 4.00 | 9.91 5.73–14.09 4.59–15.23 | 8.00 | 73% 18% |
| Possession % | 50.41 44.09–56.73 42.50–58.32 | 53.00 | 47.86 41.54–54.17 39.94–55.77 | 47.00 | — | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 471 405–536 388–554 | 517 | 429 364–493 347–511 | 469 | 899 770–1029 734–1065 | 986 | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.55 73.34–81.77 72.04–83.07 | 84.00 | 71.48 66.97–75.98 65.64–77.31 | 84.00 | — | — | 76% 21% |
| Fouls | 9.93 7.08–12.79 6.19–13.68 | 12.00 | 10.86 7.91–13.80 7.00–14.72 | 15.00 | 20.79 14.99–26.60 13.19–28.40 | 27.00 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 2.85 1.64–4.06 1.30–4.40 | 1.00 | 1.17 0.01–2.34 0.00–2.67 | 3.00 | 4.02 1.65–6.40 0.97–7.07 | 4.00 | 72% 15% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.59 0.20–2.86 | 2.00 | 1.90 0.78–3.02 0.49–3.31 | 3.00 | 3.43 1.26–5.61 0.69–6.17 | 5.00 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.16 0.74–3.57 0.35–3.96 | 2.00 | 3.14 1.58–4.69 1.15–5.12 | 4.00 | 5.30 2.33–8.26 1.51–9.08 | 6.00 | 26% 16% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.