Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Josh Smith · England
Goals
49%
26%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.470.962.43safe0.51–2.440.10–1.820.61–4.25safer0.25–2.700.00–2.060.10–4.76actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
62%
13%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.523.177.69safe2.66–6.371.47–4.884.13–11.25safer2.16–6.871.00–5.353.16–12.22actual4.002.006.00
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4711.4924.95safe9.76–17.178.11–14.8617.87–32.03safer8.73–18.207.18–15.7915.91–33.99actual18.0016.0034.00
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction8.738.1816.91safe6.21–11.245.88–10.4912.09–21.73safer5.35–12.115.09–11.2810.43–23.39actual8.0013.0021.00
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.863.457.31safe2.27–5.442.04–4.864.31–10.30safer1.74–5.981.55–5.353.29–11.33actual4.006.0010.00
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.594.5310.12safe3.38–7.792.55–6.515.94–14.30safer2.79–8.392.02–7.054.80–15.44actual6.003.009.00
Possession %
79%
18%
homeawayprediction56.8743.12safe50.55–63.1936.80–49.44safer48.96–64.7835.20–51.03actual45.0055.00
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction497335832safe431–562271–400702–962safer414–580253–417667–997actual356437793
Pass accuracy %
75%
22%
homeawayprediction81.0975.27safe76.88–85.3170.76–79.78safer75.58–86.6169.43–81.11
Fouls
83%
homeawaytotalprediction8.7313.8022.53safe5.87–11.5910.86–16.7516.73–28.34safer4.99–12.479.94–17.6714.93–30.14actual9.0015.0024.00
Offsides
48%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.242.93safe0.48–2.900.08–2.400.56–5.30safer0.14–3.250.00–2.730.00–5.98actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.802.324.12safe0.74–2.851.20–3.441.94–6.29safer0.47–3.130.91–3.731.38–6.86actual5.003.008.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
24%
16%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.083.125.20safe0.66–3.491.57–4.682.23–8.17safer0.27–3.881.14–5.111.41–8.99actual1.001.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.51–2.44 0.25–2.70 | 3.00 | 0.96 0.10–1.82 0.00–2.06 | 1.00 | 2.43 0.61–4.25 0.10–4.76 | 4.00 | 49% 26% 25% |
| Shots on target | 4.52 2.66–6.37 2.16–6.87 | 4.00 | 3.17 1.47–4.88 1.00–5.35 | 2.00 | 7.69 4.13–11.25 3.16–12.22 | 6.00 | 62% 13% 25% |
| Total shots | 13.47 9.76–17.17 8.73–18.20 | 18.00 | 11.49 8.11–14.86 7.18–15.79 | 16.00 | 24.95 17.87–32.03 15.91–33.99 | 34.00 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 8.73 6.21–11.24 5.35–12.11 | 8.00 | 8.18 5.88–10.49 5.09–11.28 | 13.00 | 16.91 12.09–21.73 10.43–23.39 | 21.00 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 2.27–5.44 1.74–5.98 | 4.00 | 3.45 2.04–4.86 1.55–5.35 | 6.00 | 7.31 4.31–10.30 3.29–11.33 | 10.00 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 5.59 3.38–7.79 2.79–8.39 | 6.00 | 4.53 2.55–6.51 2.02–7.05 | 3.00 | 10.12 5.94–14.30 4.80–15.44 | 9.00 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 56.87 50.55–63.19 48.96–64.78 | 45.00 | 43.12 36.80–49.44 35.20–51.03 | 55.00 | — | — | 79% 18% |
| Passes | 497 431–562 414–580 | 356 | 335 271–400 253–417 | 437 | 832 702–962 667–997 | 793 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.09 76.88–85.31 75.58–86.61 | — | 75.27 70.76–79.78 69.43–81.11 | — | — | — | 75% 22% |
| Fouls | 8.73 5.87–11.59 4.99–12.47 | 9.00 | 13.80 10.86–16.75 9.94–17.67 | 15.00 | 22.53 16.73–28.34 14.93–30.14 | 24.00 | 83% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.48–2.90 0.14–3.25 | 1.00 | 1.24 0.08–2.40 0.00–2.73 | 2.00 | 2.93 0.56–5.30 0.00–5.98 | 3.00 | 48% 24% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.74–2.85 0.47–3.13 | 5.00 | 2.32 1.20–3.44 0.91–3.73 | 3.00 | 4.12 1.94–6.29 1.38–6.86 | 8.00 | 30% 20% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.08 0.66–3.49 0.27–3.88 | 1.00 | 3.12 1.57–4.68 1.14–5.11 | 1.00 | 5.20 2.23–8.17 1.41–8.99 | 2.00 | 24% 16% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.