Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Thomas Parsons · England
Goals
42%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.513.20safe0.73–2.650.65–2.371.38–5.02safer0.47–2.910.41–2.620.87–5.53actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.044.669.71safe3.19–6.902.96–6.376.14–13.27safer2.69–7.402.49–6.845.18–14.24actual5.0010.0015.00
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7112.6426.35safe10.01–17.419.26–16.0219.27–33.43safer8.98–18.448.33–16.9517.31–35.39actual7.0017.0024.00
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction9.938.4718.41safe7.42–12.456.17–10.7713.59–23.22safer6.55–13.325.37–11.5711.93–24.88actual3.0013.0016.00
Blocked shots
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.483.296.76safe1.89–5.061.87–4.703.76–9.76safer1.36–5.591.39–5.192.74–10.78actual1.005.006.00
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.595.2110.80safe3.38–7.793.23–7.196.62–14.98safer2.79–8.392.69–7.735.48–16.12actual2.0010.0012.00
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction44.3455.13safe38.02–50.6548.81–61.45safer36.42–52.2547.21–63.05actual41.0059.00
Passes
27%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction359430789safe294–424365–494659–919safer276–442348–512624–954actual337480817
Pass accuracy %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction75.1380.24safe70.91–79.3475.73–84.75safer69.61–80.6574.40–86.08
Fouls
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction11.099.1720.26safe8.23–13.946.23–12.1214.46–26.06safer7.35–14.835.31–13.0412.66–27.87actual16.0013.0029.00
Offsides
28%
17%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.132.925.06safe0.93–3.341.76–4.092.69–7.43safer0.58–3.691.43–4.422.01–8.11actual3.007.0010.00
Yellow cards
37%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.063.97safe0.85–2.960.94–3.181.79–6.14safer0.58–3.240.65–3.471.23–6.71actual5.002.007.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
41%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.373.476.85safe1.96–4.791.92–5.033.88–9.81safer1.57–5.181.49–5.463.06–10.63actual10.004.0014.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 0.73–2.65 0.47–2.91 | 1.00 | 1.51 0.65–2.37 0.41–2.62 | 0.00 | 3.20 1.38–5.02 0.87–5.53 | 1.00 | 42% 23% 35% |
| Shots on target | 5.04 3.19–6.90 2.69–7.40 | 5.00 | 4.66 2.96–6.37 2.49–6.84 | 10.00 | 9.71 6.14–13.27 5.18–14.24 | 15.00 | 48% 39% |
| Total shots | 13.71 10.01–17.41 8.98–18.44 | 7.00 | 12.64 9.26–16.02 8.33–16.95 | 17.00 | 26.35 19.27–33.43 17.31–35.39 | 24.00 | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 9.93 7.42–12.45 6.55–13.32 | 3.00 | 8.47 6.17–10.77 5.37–11.57 | 13.00 | 18.41 13.59–23.22 11.93–24.88 | 16.00 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.48 1.89–5.06 1.36–5.59 | 1.00 | 3.29 1.87–4.70 1.39–5.19 | 5.00 | 6.76 3.76–9.76 2.74–10.78 | 6.00 | 45% 16% 39% |
| Corners | 5.59 3.38–7.79 2.79–8.39 | 2.00 | 5.21 3.23–7.19 2.69–7.73 | 10.00 | 10.80 6.62–14.98 5.48–16.12 | 12.00 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 44.34 38.02–50.65 36.42–52.25 | 41.00 | 55.13 48.81–61.45 47.21–63.05 | 59.00 | — | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 359 294–424 276–442 | 337 | 430 365–494 348–512 | 480 | 789 659–919 624–954 | 817 | 27% 73% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.13 70.91–79.34 69.61–80.65 | — | 80.24 75.73–84.75 74.40–86.08 | — | — | — | 24% 72% |
| Fouls | 11.09 8.23–13.94 7.35–14.83 | 16.00 | 9.17 6.23–12.12 5.31–13.04 | 13.00 | 20.26 14.46–26.06 12.66–27.87 | 29.00 | 62% 30% |
| Offsides | 2.13 0.93–3.34 0.58–3.69 | 3.00 | 2.92 1.76–4.09 1.43–4.42 | 7.00 | 5.06 2.69–7.43 2.01–8.11 | 10.00 | 28% 17% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.85–2.96 0.58–3.24 | 5.00 | 2.06 0.94–3.18 0.65–3.47 | 2.00 | 3.97 1.79–6.14 1.23–6.71 | 7.00 | 37% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.37 1.96–4.79 1.57–5.18 | 10.00 | 3.47 1.92–5.03 1.49–5.46 | 4.00 | 6.85 3.88–9.81 3.06–10.63 | 14.00 | 41% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+