Championship·Regular Season - 7·
Championship·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Andrew Kitchen · England
Goals
36%
28%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.212.40safe0.22–2.150.35–2.070.57–4.22safer0.00–2.410.10–2.320.07–4.72actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.083.747.83safe2.23–5.942.04–5.454.27–11.39safer1.73–6.441.57–5.923.30–12.36actual3.003.006.00
Total shots
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5311.8824.42safe8.83–16.248.50–15.2617.34–31.50safer7.80–17.277.57–16.1915.37–33.46actual10.009.0019.00
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction7.928.2816.20safe5.40–10.445.98–10.5811.38–21.02safer4.54–11.305.18–11.389.72–22.68actual5.003.008.00
Blocked shots
39%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.413.617.02safe1.83–5.002.19–5.024.02–10.02safer1.29–5.531.71–5.513.00–11.04actual1.004.005.00
Corners
37%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.895.4210.31safe2.68–7.103.44–7.406.13–14.49safer2.09–7.692.90–7.944.99–15.63actual7.005.0012.00
Possession %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction45.7753.81safe39.45–52.0947.49–60.13safer37.86–53.6845.90–61.73actual47.0053.00
Passes
28%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction328397724safe262–393332–461594–854safer245–411314–479559–889actual375431806
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction67.4172.10safe63.19–71.6267.59–76.60safer61.89–72.9366.26–77.93
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7310.8522.59safe8.88–14.597.91–13.8016.78–28.39safer7.99–15.486.99–14.7114.98–30.19actual10.009.0019.00
Offsides
73%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.711.003.70safe1.50–3.920.00–2.161.33–6.08safer1.15–4.260.00–2.490.65–6.75actual3.003.006.00
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.843.53safe0.64–2.750.72–2.961.36–5.71safer0.36–3.020.43–3.250.80–6.27actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.190.00–0.270.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.420.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
35%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.392.715.10safe0.97–3.801.16–4.262.13–8.07safer0.58–4.190.72–4.701.31–8.89actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.22–2.15 0.00–2.41 | 0.00 | 1.21 0.35–2.07 0.10–2.32 | 0.00 | 2.40 0.57–4.22 0.07–4.72 | 0.00 | 36% 28% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.08 2.23–5.94 1.73–6.44 | 3.00 | 3.74 2.04–5.45 1.57–5.92 | 3.00 | 7.83 4.27–11.39 3.30–12.36 | 6.00 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 12.53 8.83–16.24 7.80–17.27 | 10.00 | 11.88 8.50–15.26 7.57–16.19 | 9.00 | 24.42 17.34–31.50 15.37–33.46 | 19.00 | 51% 41% |
| Shots in box | 7.92 5.40–10.44 4.54–11.30 | 5.00 | 8.28 5.98–10.58 5.18–11.38 | 3.00 | 16.20 11.38–21.02 9.72–22.68 | 8.00 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.41 1.83–5.00 1.29–5.53 | 1.00 | 3.61 2.19–5.02 1.71–5.51 | 4.00 | 7.02 4.02–10.02 3.00–11.04 | 5.00 | 39% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 4.89 2.68–7.10 2.09–7.69 | 7.00 | 5.42 3.44–7.40 2.90–7.94 | 5.00 | 10.31 6.13–14.49 4.99–15.63 | 12.00 | 37% 50% |
| Possession % | 45.77 39.45–52.09 37.86–53.68 | 47.00 | 53.81 47.49–60.13 45.90–61.73 | 53.00 | — | — | 28% 67% |
| Passes | 328 262–393 245–411 | 375 | 397 332–461 314–479 | 431 | 724 594–854 559–889 | 806 | 28% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.41 63.19–71.62 61.89–72.93 | — | 72.10 67.59–76.60 66.26–77.93 | — | — | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 11.73 8.88–14.59 7.99–15.48 | 10.00 | 10.85 7.91–13.80 6.99–14.71 | 9.00 | 22.59 16.78–28.39 14.98–30.19 | 19.00 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 2.71 1.50–3.92 1.15–4.26 | 3.00 | 1.00 0.00–2.16 0.00–2.49 | 3.00 | 3.70 1.33–6.08 0.65–6.75 | 6.00 | 73% 15% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.75 0.36–3.02 | 1.00 | 1.84 0.72–2.96 0.43–3.25 | 1.00 | 3.53 1.36–5.71 0.80–6.27 | 2.00 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.39 0.97–3.80 0.58–4.19 | 3.00 | 2.71 1.16–4.26 0.72–4.70 | 3.00 | 5.10 2.13–8.07 1.31–8.89 | 6.00 | 35% 18% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+