Championship·Regular Season - 7·
Championship·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: John Busby · England
Goals
35%
27%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.272.48safe0.25–2.180.41–2.130.66–4.30safer0.00–2.440.16–2.370.15–4.81actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.174.318.47safe2.31–6.022.60–6.014.91–12.03safer1.81–6.522.13–6.483.94–13.00actual4.009.0013.00
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0012.7624.76safe8.30–15.719.38–16.1417.68–31.85safer7.27–16.748.45–17.0715.72–33.81actual18.0019.0037.00
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.177.2715.44safe5.65–10.684.97–9.5710.62–20.26safer4.79–11.554.17–10.378.96–21.92actual10.0014.0024.00
Blocked shots
42%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.982.995.97safe1.40–4.561.57–4.402.97–8.97safer0.86–5.101.09–4.891.95–9.99actual7.002.009.00
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.995.2110.20safe2.79–7.203.23–7.196.02–14.39safer2.19–7.792.70–7.734.89–15.52actual10.004.0014.00
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction48.3351.78safe42.01–54.6545.46–58.10safer40.42–56.2443.86–59.70actual59.0041.00
Passes
41%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction347373721safe282–413309–438591–851safer264–430291–455556–886actual382275657
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction71.4973.68safe67.28–75.7169.18–78.19safer65.98–77.0167.85–79.52
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8811.9923.86safe9.02–14.739.04–14.9318.06–29.67safer8.13–15.628.12–15.8516.26–31.47actual8.0012.0020.00
Offsides
69%
15%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.961.424.38safe1.75–4.170.26–2.592.01–6.75safer1.40–4.510.00–2.921.33–7.43actual4.001.005.00
Yellow cards
37%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.012.134.14safe0.95–3.061.01–3.251.97–6.32safer0.68–3.340.72–3.541.40–6.88actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
36%
18%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.452.755.20safe1.04–3.871.20–4.312.24–8.17safer0.65–4.260.77–4.741.42–8.99actual6.001.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.25–2.18 0.00–2.44 | 1.00 | 1.27 0.41–2.13 0.16–2.37 | 2.00 | 2.48 0.66–4.30 0.15–4.81 | 3.00 | 35% 27% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.17 2.31–6.02 1.81–6.52 | 4.00 | 4.31 2.60–6.01 2.13–6.48 | 9.00 | 8.47 4.91–12.03 3.94–13.00 | 13.00 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 12.00 8.30–15.71 7.27–16.74 | 18.00 | 12.76 9.38–16.14 8.45–17.07 | 19.00 | 24.76 17.68–31.85 15.72–33.81 | 37.00 | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 8.17 5.65–10.68 4.79–11.55 | 10.00 | 7.27 4.97–9.57 4.17–10.37 | 14.00 | 15.44 10.62–20.26 8.96–21.92 | 24.00 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 2.98 1.40–4.56 0.86–5.10 | 7.00 | 2.99 1.57–4.40 1.09–4.89 | 2.00 | 5.97 2.97–8.97 1.95–9.99 | 9.00 | 42% 17% 42% |
| Corners | 4.99 2.79–7.20 2.19–7.79 | 10.00 | 5.21 3.23–7.19 2.70–7.73 | 4.00 | 10.20 6.02–14.39 4.89–15.52 | 14.00 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 48.33 42.01–54.65 40.42–56.24 | 59.00 | 51.78 45.46–58.10 43.86–59.70 | 41.00 | — | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 347 282–413 264–430 | 382 | 373 309–438 291–455 | 275 | 721 591–851 556–886 | 657 | 41% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.49 67.28–75.71 65.98–77.01 | — | 73.68 69.18–78.19 67.85–79.52 | — | — | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 11.88 9.02–14.73 8.13–15.62 | 8.00 | 11.99 9.04–14.93 8.12–15.85 | 12.00 | 23.86 18.06–29.67 16.26–31.47 | 20.00 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.96 1.75–4.17 1.40–4.51 | 4.00 | 1.42 0.26–2.59 0.00–2.92 | 1.00 | 4.38 2.01–6.75 1.33–7.43 | 5.00 | 69% 15% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 2.01 0.95–3.06 0.68–3.34 | 1.00 | 2.13 1.01–3.25 0.72–3.54 | 3.00 | 4.14 1.97–6.32 1.40–6.88 | 4.00 | 37% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.04–3.87 0.65–4.26 | 6.00 | 2.75 1.20–4.31 0.77–4.74 | 1.00 | 5.20 2.24–8.17 1.42–8.99 | 7.00 | 36% 18% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+