Championship·Regular Season - 7·
Championship·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Adam Herczeg · England
Goals
53%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.152.95safe0.84–2.770.29–2.011.13–4.77safer0.58–3.030.04–2.250.62–5.28actual4.003.007.00
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.393.989.36safe3.53–7.242.27–5.695.80–12.93safer3.03–7.741.80–6.154.83–13.89actual6.005.0011.00
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6011.9126.51safe10.89–18.308.53–15.2919.43–33.59safer9.86–19.337.60–16.2217.46–35.55actual17.0013.0030.00
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction11.656.9318.58safe9.13–14.164.63–9.2313.76–23.40safer8.27–15.033.83–10.0312.10–25.06actual12.009.0021.00
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.912.997.90safe3.32–6.491.57–4.404.90–10.89safer2.79–7.021.09–4.893.88–11.91actual3.002.005.00
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.574.4710.04safe3.36–7.772.50–6.455.86–14.23safer2.77–8.371.96–6.994.73–15.36actual3.005.008.00
Possession %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction56.7341.26safe50.41–63.0534.94–47.57safer48.82–64.6433.34–49.17actual52.0048.00
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction500349848safe434–565284–413719–978safer417–583267–431683–1014actual433429862
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction84.1473.64safe79.93–88.3669.13–78.15safer78.63–89.6667.80–79.48
Fouls
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6811.3322.01safe7.82–13.548.39–14.2816.21–27.81safer6.94–14.427.47–15.2014.41–29.62actual13.009.0022.00
Offsides
76%
homeawaytotalprediction4.051.875.92safe2.84–5.260.71–3.043.55–8.30safer2.50–5.600.38–3.372.87–8.97actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
27%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.524.27safe0.70–2.811.40–3.642.10–6.45safer0.43–3.081.11–3.931.53–7.01actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.120.16safe0.00–0.200.00–0.310.00–0.51safer0.00–0.350.00–0.460.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.713.716.42safe1.29–4.122.16–5.273.45–9.39safer0.91–4.511.73–5.702.63–10.21actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.80 0.84–2.77 0.58–3.03 | 4.00 | 1.15 0.29–2.01 0.04–2.25 | 3.00 | 2.95 1.13–4.77 0.62–5.28 | 7.00 | 53% 23% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.39 3.53–7.24 3.03–7.74 | 6.00 | 3.98 2.27–5.69 1.80–6.15 | 5.00 | 9.36 5.80–12.93 4.83–13.89 | 11.00 | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 14.60 10.89–18.30 9.86–19.33 | 17.00 | 11.91 8.53–15.29 7.60–16.22 | 13.00 | 26.51 19.43–33.59 17.46–35.55 | 30.00 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 11.65 9.13–14.16 8.27–15.03 | 12.00 | 6.93 4.63–9.23 3.83–10.03 | 9.00 | 18.58 13.76–23.40 12.10–25.06 | 21.00 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 4.91 3.32–6.49 2.79–7.02 | 3.00 | 2.99 1.57–4.40 1.09–4.89 | 2.00 | 7.90 4.90–10.89 3.88–11.91 | 5.00 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 5.57 3.36–7.77 2.77–8.37 | 3.00 | 4.47 2.50–6.45 1.96–6.99 | 5.00 | 10.04 5.86–14.23 4.73–15.36 | 8.00 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 56.73 50.41–63.05 48.82–64.64 | 52.00 | 41.26 34.94–47.57 33.34–49.17 | 48.00 | — | — | 82% 15% |
| Passes | 500 434–565 417–583 | 433 | 349 284–413 267–431 | 429 | 848 719–978 683–1014 | 862 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.14 79.93–88.36 78.63–89.66 | — | 73.64 69.13–78.15 67.80–79.48 | — | — | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 10.68 7.82–13.54 6.94–14.42 | 13.00 | 11.33 8.39–14.28 7.47–15.20 | 9.00 | 22.01 16.21–27.81 14.41–29.62 | 22.00 | 40% 51% |
| Offsides | 4.05 2.84–5.26 2.50–5.60 | 3.00 | 1.87 0.71–3.04 0.38–3.37 | 1.00 | 5.92 3.55–8.30 2.87–8.97 | 4.00 | 76% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.81 0.43–3.08 | 2.00 | 2.52 1.40–3.64 1.11–3.93 | 1.00 | 4.27 2.10–6.45 1.53–7.01 | 3.00 | 27% 19% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.29–4.12 0.91–4.51 | 2.00 | 3.71 2.16–5.27 1.73–5.70 | 2.00 | 6.42 3.45–9.39 2.63–10.21 | 4.00 | 27% 15% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.