Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Steve Martin · England
Goals
53%
24%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.022.70safe0.71–2.640.17–1.880.88–4.52safer0.45–2.900.00–2.130.37–5.03actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
61%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.673.378.04safe2.81–6.521.67–5.084.48–11.61safer2.31–7.021.20–5.553.51–12.57actual3.003.006.00
Total shots
77%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3311.0626.39safe11.63–19.037.69–14.4419.31–33.47safer10.59–20.066.75–15.3717.35–35.44actual11.009.0020.00
Shots in box
74%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction10.006.9216.92safe7.49–12.524.62–9.2212.10–21.74safer6.62–13.383.82–10.0110.44–23.40actual8.006.0014.00
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.652.777.42safe3.07–6.231.36–4.194.43–10.42safer2.53–6.770.87–4.673.40–11.44actual6.000.006.00
Corners
62%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.934.4310.36safe3.72–8.132.45–6.416.17–14.54safer3.13–8.731.91–6.945.04–15.67actual16.003.0019.00
Possession %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction57.1341.90safe50.81–63.4535.58–48.22safer49.21–65.0433.98–49.81actual52.0048.00
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction409315724safe344–475250–379594–854safer326–492233–397559–889actual338341679
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction76.2970.66safe72.07–80.5066.16–75.17safer70.77–81.8064.82–76.50
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2013.4625.66safe9.35–15.0610.51–16.4019.86–31.47safer8.46–15.959.60–17.3218.06–33.27actual8.009.0017.00
Offsides
15%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction1.132.763.89safe0.00–2.341.60–3.931.52–6.26safer0.00–2.681.27–4.260.84–6.94actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.983.46safe0.43–2.540.86–3.101.28–5.63safer0.15–2.810.57–3.390.72–6.20actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
31%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.473.145.61safe1.06–3.891.59–4.692.65–8.58safer0.67–4.281.15–5.131.83–9.40actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 0.71–2.64 0.45–2.90 | 0.00 | 1.02 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.13 | 1.00 | 2.70 0.88–4.52 0.37–5.03 | 1.00 | 53% 24% 23% |
| Shots on target | 4.67 2.81–6.52 2.31–7.02 | 3.00 | 3.37 1.67–5.08 1.20–5.55 | 3.00 | 8.04 4.48–11.61 3.51–12.57 | 6.00 | 61% 26% |
| Total shots | 15.33 11.63–19.03 10.59–20.06 | 11.00 | 11.06 7.69–14.44 6.75–15.37 | 9.00 | 26.39 19.31–33.47 17.35–35.44 | 20.00 | 77% 18% |
| Shots in box | 10.00 7.49–12.52 6.62–13.38 | 8.00 | 6.92 4.62–9.22 3.82–10.01 | 6.00 | 16.92 12.10–21.74 10.44–23.40 | 14.00 | 74% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 4.65 3.07–6.23 2.53–6.77 | 6.00 | 2.77 1.36–4.19 0.87–4.67 | 0.00 | 7.42 4.43–10.42 3.40–11.44 | 6.00 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 5.93 3.72–8.13 3.13–8.73 | 16.00 | 4.43 2.45–6.41 1.91–6.94 | 3.00 | 10.36 6.17–14.54 5.04–15.67 | 19.00 | 62% 27% |
| Possession % | 57.13 50.81–63.45 49.21–65.04 | 52.00 | 41.90 35.58–48.22 33.98–49.81 | 48.00 | — | — | 82% 15% |
| Passes | 409 344–475 326–492 | 338 | 315 250–379 233–397 | 341 | 724 594–854 559–889 | 679 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.29 72.07–80.50 70.77–81.80 | — | 70.66 66.16–75.17 64.82–76.50 | — | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 12.20 9.35–15.06 8.46–15.95 | 8.00 | 13.46 10.51–16.40 9.60–17.32 | 9.00 | 25.66 19.86–31.47 18.06–33.27 | 17.00 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.13 0.00–2.34 0.00–2.68 | 0.00 | 2.76 1.60–3.93 1.27–4.26 | 2.00 | 3.89 1.52–6.26 0.84–6.94 | 2.00 | 15% 72% |
| Yellow cards | 1.48 0.43–2.54 0.15–2.81 | 1.00 | 1.98 0.86–3.10 0.57–3.39 | 1.00 | 3.46 1.28–5.63 0.72–6.20 | 2.00 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.47 1.06–3.89 0.67–4.28 | 3.00 | 3.14 1.59–4.69 1.15–5.13 | 2.00 | 5.61 2.65–8.58 1.83–9.40 | 5.00 | 31% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.