Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
28%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.262.40safe0.18–2.120.40–2.110.58–4.23safer0.00–2.370.17–2.340.10–4.71
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.333.768.09safe2.47–6.192.02–5.504.49–11.70safer1.98–6.681.55–5.973.53–12.65
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6012.2126.81safe10.67–18.528.65–15.7819.33–34.30safer9.58–19.627.69–16.7417.28–36.35
Shots in box
56%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction9.278.1417.41safe6.33–12.225.46–10.8211.79–23.03safer5.50–13.054.72–11.5610.22–24.60
Blocked shots
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.664.077.73safe1.78–5.542.42–5.734.19–11.27safer1.23–6.081.93–6.223.16–12.30
Corners
50%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.254.7810.03safe3.04–7.462.78–6.785.82–14.25safer2.46–8.042.25–7.314.71–15.35
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction50.9248.87safe44.13–57.7142.08–55.65safer42.46–59.3840.41–57.32
Passes
66%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction427376803safe360–494309–442669–936safer341–512292–460633–972
Pass accuracy %
33%
63%
homeawayprediction63.6166.61safe59.58–67.6462.28–70.93safer58.29–68.9360.97–72.24
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8811.8322.72safe8.05–13.728.89–14.7816.94–28.50safer7.29–14.488.14–15.5315.43–30.00
Offsides
63%
19%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.331.203.53safe1.17–3.490.11–2.291.28–5.79safer0.87–3.790.00–2.580.69–6.38
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.883.53safe0.61–2.710.75–3.011.36–5.71safer0.34–2.970.46–3.300.80–6.27
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.105.72safe1.19–4.061.55–4.662.73–8.72safer0.80–4.451.12–5.081.92–9.53
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 0.18–2.12 0.00–2.37 | 1.26 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.34 | 2.40 0.58–4.23 0.10–4.71 | 34% 28% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.33 2.47–6.19 1.98–6.68 | 3.76 2.02–5.50 1.55–5.97 | 8.09 4.49–11.70 3.53–12.65 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 14.60 10.67–18.52 9.58–19.62 | 12.21 8.65–15.78 7.69–16.74 | 26.81 19.33–34.30 17.28–36.35 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 9.27 6.33–12.22 5.50–13.05 | 8.14 5.46–10.82 4.72–11.56 | 17.41 11.79–23.03 10.22–24.60 | 56% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 1.78–5.54 1.23–6.08 | 4.07 2.42–5.73 1.93–6.22 | 7.73 4.19–11.27 3.16–12.30 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Corners | 5.25 3.04–7.46 2.46–8.04 | 4.78 2.78–6.78 2.25–7.31 | 10.03 5.82–14.25 4.71–15.35 | 50% 38% |
| Possession % | 50.92 44.13–57.71 42.46–59.38 | 48.87 42.08–55.65 40.41–57.32 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 427 360–494 341–512 | 376 309–442 292–460 | 803 669–936 633–972 | 66% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.61 59.58–67.64 58.29–68.93 | 66.61 62.28–70.93 60.97–72.24 | — | 33% 63% |
| Fouls | 10.88 8.05–13.72 7.29–14.48 | 11.83 8.89–14.78 8.14–15.53 | 22.72 16.94–28.50 15.43–30.00 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 2.33 1.17–3.49 0.87–3.79 | 1.20 0.11–2.29 0.00–2.58 | 3.53 1.28–5.79 0.69–6.38 | 63% 19% 18% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.61–2.71 0.34–2.97 | 1.88 0.75–3.01 0.46–3.30 | 3.53 1.36–5.71 0.80–6.27 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.19–4.06 0.80–4.45 | 3.10 1.55–4.66 1.12–5.08 | 5.72 2.73–8.72 1.92–9.53 | 34% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.