Championship·Regular Season - 7·
Championship·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: R. Jones
Goals
34%
25%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.512.88safe0.41–2.330.65–2.371.06–4.70safer0.14–2.590.41–2.620.55–5.21actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.174.468.63safe2.32–6.032.75–6.175.07–12.19safer1.82–6.532.28–6.634.10–13.16actual2.003.005.00
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4012.6525.05safe8.70–16.109.27–16.0317.97–32.13safer7.67–17.138.34–16.9616.00–34.09actual6.0017.0023.00
Shots in box
47%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction8.888.6917.57safe6.37–11.406.39–10.9912.75–22.39safer5.50–12.265.59–11.7911.09–24.05actual4.0016.0020.00
Blocked shots
39%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.373.596.96safe1.79–4.962.17–5.003.96–9.96safer1.26–5.491.69–5.492.94–10.98actual1.005.006.00
Corners
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5.065.0310.09safe2.85–7.263.05–7.015.91–14.27safer2.26–7.862.52–7.554.77–15.41actual0.009.009.00
Possession %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction46.6054.41safe40.28–52.9248.09–60.73safer38.68–54.5146.49–62.33actual37.0063.00
Passes
36%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction384425809safe319–449361–490680–939safer301–467343–508644–975actual287495782
Pass accuracy %
21%
76%
homeawayprediction70.5476.61safe66.32–74.7572.10–81.11safer65.02–76.0570.77–82.44
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7611.3223.08safe8.91–14.628.37–14.2617.28–28.88safer8.02–15.507.45–15.1815.47–30.69actual12.0015.0027.00
Offsides
56%
18%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.631.784.40safe1.42–3.830.61–2.942.03–6.77safer1.07–4.180.28–3.271.35–7.45actual5.002.007.00
Yellow cards
40%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.222.234.45safe1.16–3.281.11–3.352.27–6.63safer0.89–3.550.82–3.641.71–7.19actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
37%
18%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.582.825.40safe1.17–4.001.26–4.372.43–8.37safer0.78–4.390.83–4.801.61–9.19actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.41–2.33 0.14–2.59 | 0.00 | 1.51 0.65–2.37 0.41–2.62 | 1.00 | 2.88 1.06–4.70 0.55–5.21 | 1.00 | 34% 25% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.17 2.32–6.03 1.82–6.53 | 2.00 | 4.46 2.75–6.17 2.28–6.63 | 3.00 | 8.63 5.07–12.19 4.10–13.16 | 5.00 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 12.40 8.70–16.10 7.67–17.13 | 6.00 | 12.65 9.27–16.03 8.34–16.96 | 17.00 | 25.05 17.97–32.13 16.00–34.09 | 23.00 | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 8.88 6.37–11.40 5.50–12.26 | 4.00 | 8.69 6.39–10.99 5.59–11.79 | 16.00 | 17.57 12.75–22.39 11.09–24.05 | 20.00 | 47% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.37 1.79–4.96 1.26–5.49 | 1.00 | 3.59 2.17–5.00 1.69–5.49 | 5.00 | 6.96 3.96–9.96 2.94–10.98 | 6.00 | 39% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 5.06 2.85–7.26 2.26–7.86 | 0.00 | 5.03 3.05–7.01 2.52–7.55 | 9.00 | 10.09 5.91–14.27 4.77–15.41 | 9.00 | 44% 43% |
| Possession % | 46.60 40.28–52.92 38.68–54.51 | 37.00 | 54.41 48.09–60.73 46.49–62.33 | 63.00 | — | — | 29% 67% |
| Passes | 384 319–449 301–467 | 287 | 425 361–490 343–508 | 495 | 809 680–939 644–975 | 782 | 36% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.54 66.32–74.75 65.02–76.05 | — | 76.61 72.10–81.11 70.77–82.44 | — | — | — | 21% 76% |
| Fouls | 11.76 8.91–14.62 8.02–15.50 | 12.00 | 11.32 8.37–14.26 7.45–15.18 | 15.00 | 23.08 17.28–28.88 15.47–30.69 | 27.00 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 2.63 1.42–3.83 1.07–4.18 | 5.00 | 1.78 0.61–2.94 0.28–3.27 | 2.00 | 4.40 2.03–6.77 1.35–7.45 | 7.00 | 56% 18% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 2.22 1.16–3.28 0.89–3.55 | 2.00 | 2.23 1.11–3.35 0.82–3.64 | 1.00 | 4.45 2.27–6.63 1.71–7.19 | 3.00 | 40% 20% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.17–4.00 0.78–4.39 | 2.00 | 2.82 1.26–4.37 0.83–4.80 | 2.00 | 5.40 2.43–8.37 1.61–9.19 | 4.00 | 37% 18% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+