Championship·Regular Season - 7·
Championship·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Sam Allison · England
Goals
65%
19%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.200.963.17safe1.24–3.160.10–1.821.34–4.99safer0.98–3.420.00–2.070.84–5.49actual4.001.005.00
Shots on target
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.533.579.10safe3.67–7.381.86–5.285.53–12.66safer3.17–7.881.39–5.754.57–13.63actual5.006.0011.00
Total shots
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction16.0711.2827.35safe12.37–19.777.90–14.6620.27–34.44safer11.34–20.816.97–15.5918.31–36.40actual10.0021.0031.00
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction11.677.2718.95safe9.16–14.194.97–9.5714.13–23.77safer8.29–15.064.18–10.3712.47–25.43actual8.0018.0026.00
Blocked shots
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.883.228.10safe3.30–6.461.80–4.635.10–11.10safer2.76–7.001.32–5.124.08–12.12actual3.003.006.00
Corners
72%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.474.0910.57safe4.27–8.682.11–6.076.38–14.75safer3.67–9.271.58–6.615.25–15.88actual2.005.007.00
Possession %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction58.0341.21safe51.72–64.3534.90–47.53safer50.12–65.9533.30–49.13actual56.0044.00
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction505373878safe439–570309–438748–1008safer422–588291–455713–1043actual533394927
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction85.4374.07safe81.21–89.6469.57–78.58safer79.91–90.9468.24–79.91
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction9.1911.9521.14safe6.33–12.059.00–14.8915.33–26.94safer5.45–12.938.08–15.8113.53–28.74actual6.0014.0020.00
Offsides
50%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.273.09safe0.61–3.030.11–2.430.72–5.46safer0.27–3.370.00–2.760.04–6.14actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.254.08safe0.78–2.891.13–3.371.91–6.26safer0.50–3.160.84–3.661.34–6.82actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.090.13safe0.00–0.200.00–0.280.00–0.48safer0.00–0.350.00–0.420.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
22%
15%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.243.545.78safe0.82–3.651.99–5.102.81–8.75safer0.43–4.041.56–5.531.99–9.57actual4.001.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.20 1.24–3.16 0.98–3.42 | 4.00 | 0.96 0.10–1.82 0.00–2.07 | 1.00 | 3.17 1.34–4.99 0.84–5.49 | 5.00 | 65% 19% 15% |
| Shots on target | 5.53 3.67–7.38 3.17–7.88 | 5.00 | 3.57 1.86–5.28 1.39–5.75 | 6.00 | 9.10 5.53–12.66 4.57–13.63 | 11.00 | 69% 21% |
| Total shots | 16.07 12.37–19.77 11.34–20.81 | 10.00 | 11.28 7.90–14.66 6.97–15.59 | 21.00 | 27.35 20.27–34.44 18.31–36.40 | 31.00 | 79% 15% |
| Shots in box | 11.67 9.16–14.19 8.29–15.06 | 8.00 | 7.27 4.97–9.57 4.18–10.37 | 18.00 | 18.95 14.13–23.77 12.47–25.43 | 26.00 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 4.88 3.30–6.46 2.76–7.00 | 3.00 | 3.22 1.80–4.63 1.32–5.12 | 3.00 | 8.10 5.10–11.10 4.08–12.12 | 6.00 | 66% 22% |
| Corners | 6.47 4.27–8.68 3.67–9.27 | 2.00 | 4.09 2.11–6.07 1.58–6.61 | 5.00 | 10.57 6.38–14.75 5.25–15.88 | 7.00 | 72% 19% |
| Possession % | 58.03 51.72–64.35 50.12–65.95 | 56.00 | 41.21 34.90–47.53 33.30–49.13 | 44.00 | — | — | 84% 13% |
| Passes | 505 439–570 422–588 | 533 | 373 309–438 291–455 | 394 | 878 748–1008 713–1043 | 927 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.43 81.21–89.64 79.91–90.94 | — | 74.07 69.57–78.58 68.24–79.91 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 9.19 6.33–12.05 5.45–12.93 | 6.00 | 11.95 9.00–14.89 8.08–15.81 | 14.00 | 21.14 15.33–26.94 13.53–28.74 | 20.00 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 1.82 0.61–3.03 0.27–3.37 | 0.00 | 1.27 0.11–2.43 0.00–2.76 | 0.00 | 3.09 0.72–5.46 0.04–6.14 | 0.00 | 50% 23% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.78–2.89 0.50–3.16 | 0.00 | 2.25 1.13–3.37 0.84–3.66 | 2.00 | 4.08 1.91–6.26 1.34–6.82 | 2.00 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.24 0.82–3.65 0.43–4.04 | 4.00 | 3.54 1.99–5.10 1.56–5.53 | 1.00 | 5.78 2.81–8.75 1.99–9.57 | 5.00 | 22% 15% 63% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+