Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: James Bell · England
Goals
60%
21%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.960.992.96safe1.00–2.930.14–1.851.14–4.78safer0.74–3.190.00–2.100.63–5.29actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.283.629.90safe4.42–8.131.91–5.336.33–13.46safer3.92–8.631.45–5.805.37–14.43actual6.006.0012.00
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2210.5126.72safe12.51–19.927.13–13.8919.64–33.80safer11.48–20.956.20–14.8217.68–35.77actual13.0018.0031.00
Shots in box
85%
homeawaytotalprediction11.076.2217.29safe8.55–13.583.92–8.5212.47–22.10safer7.69–14.453.12–9.3210.81–23.76actual9.0011.0020.00
Blocked shots
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.522.657.18safe2.94–6.111.24–4.074.18–10.17safer2.41–6.640.75–4.553.16–11.19actual3.004.007.00
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.173.449.61safe3.96–8.371.46–5.425.42–13.79safer3.37–8.970.92–5.954.29–14.92actual3.006.009.00
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction60.2141.38safe53.89–66.5335.07–47.70safer52.29–68.1233.47–49.30actual54.0046.00
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction561383944safe496–626319–448814–1074safer478–644301–465779–1109actual5524541006
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction82.0571.00safe77.83–86.2666.49–75.51safer76.53–87.5665.16–76.84
Fouls
25%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction9.0611.5520.61safe6.20–11.928.60–14.4914.81–26.41safer5.32–12.807.68–15.4113.00–28.21actual7.007.0014.00
Offsides
45%
18%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.572.334.90safe1.36–3.781.16–3.492.52–7.27safer1.02–4.120.83–3.821.85–7.94actual4.004.008.00
Yellow cards
25%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.404.00safe0.54–2.661.28–3.521.82–6.18safer0.27–2.930.99–3.811.26–6.74actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.200.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.430.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
20%
13%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.393.986.37safe0.98–3.812.43–5.543.41–9.34safer0.59–4.202.00–5.972.59–10.16actual5.002.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.96 1.00–2.93 0.74–3.19 | 3.00 | 0.99 0.14–1.85 0.00–2.10 | 1.00 | 2.96 1.14–4.78 0.63–5.29 | 4.00 | 60% 21% 19% |
| Shots on target | 6.28 4.42–8.13 3.92–8.63 | 6.00 | 3.62 1.91–5.33 1.45–5.80 | 6.00 | 9.90 6.33–13.46 5.37–14.43 | 12.00 | 75% 15% |
| Total shots | 16.22 12.51–19.92 11.48–20.95 | 13.00 | 10.51 7.13–13.89 6.20–14.82 | 18.00 | 26.72 19.64–33.80 17.68–35.77 | 31.00 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 11.07 8.55–13.58 7.69–14.45 | 9.00 | 6.22 3.92–8.52 3.12–9.32 | 11.00 | 17.29 12.47–22.10 10.81–23.76 | 20.00 | 85% |
| Blocked shots | 4.52 2.94–6.11 2.41–6.64 | 3.00 | 2.65 1.24–4.07 0.75–4.55 | 4.00 | 7.18 4.18–10.17 3.16–11.19 | 7.00 | 70% 18% |
| Corners | 6.17 3.96–8.37 3.37–8.97 | 3.00 | 3.44 1.46–5.42 0.92–5.95 | 6.00 | 9.61 5.42–13.79 4.29–14.92 | 9.00 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 60.21 53.89–66.53 52.29–68.12 | 54.00 | 41.38 35.07–47.70 33.47–49.30 | 46.00 | — | — | 87% |
| Passes | 561 496–626 478–644 | 552 | 383 319–448 301–465 | 454 | 944 814–1074 779–1109 | 1006 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.05 77.83–86.26 76.53–87.56 | — | 71.00 66.49–75.51 65.16–76.84 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 9.06 6.20–11.92 5.32–12.80 | 7.00 | 11.55 8.60–14.49 7.68–15.41 | 7.00 | 20.61 14.81–26.41 13.00–28.21 | 14.00 | 25% 67% |
| Offsides | 2.57 1.36–3.78 1.02–4.12 | 4.00 | 2.33 1.16–3.49 0.83–3.82 | 4.00 | 4.90 2.52–7.27 1.85–7.94 | 8.00 | 45% 18% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.54–2.66 0.27–2.93 | 2.00 | 2.40 1.28–3.52 0.99–3.81 | 1.00 | 4.00 1.82–6.18 1.26–6.74 | 3.00 | 25% 19% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.39 0.98–3.81 0.59–4.20 | 5.00 | 3.98 2.43–5.54 2.00–5.97 | 2.00 | 6.37 3.41–9.34 2.59–10.16 | 7.00 | 20% 13% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+