Championship·Regular Season - 7·
Championship·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Lewis Smith · England
Goals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.172.50safe0.36–2.290.31–2.030.68–4.32safer0.10–2.550.07–2.280.17–4.83actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.613.828.43safe2.75–6.462.12–5.534.87–11.99safer2.25–6.961.65–6.003.90–12.96actual2.006.008.00
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1912.1726.37safe10.49–17.908.80–15.5519.28–33.45safer9.46–18.937.86–16.4817.32–35.41actual6.0018.0024.00
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction8.877.8116.68safe6.35–11.385.51–10.1111.86–21.49safer5.49–12.254.71–10.9110.20–23.15actual4.0010.0014.00
Blocked shots
61%
13%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.623.337.96safe3.04–6.211.92–4.754.96–10.95safer2.50–6.741.43–5.233.94–11.98actual2.004.006.00
Corners
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.414.8310.23safe3.20–7.612.85–6.806.05–14.41safer2.60–8.212.31–7.344.91–15.55actual5.008.0013.00
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction53.1545.74safe46.83–59.4739.42–52.06safer45.24–61.0737.83–53.66actual40.0060.00
Passes
66%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction424373797safe358–489309–438667–927safer341–507291–456632–962actual380545925
Pass accuracy %
59%
37%
homeawayprediction80.9578.70safe76.74–85.1774.19–83.21safer75.43–86.4772.86–84.54
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9912.6523.64safe8.13–13.859.71–15.6017.84–29.45safer7.25–14.738.79–16.5216.04–31.25actual14.006.0020.00
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.853.67safe0.60–3.020.69–3.021.29–6.04safer0.26–3.370.36–3.350.62–6.72actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.982.304.28safe0.92–3.031.18–3.432.10–6.46safer0.65–3.300.89–3.721.54–7.02actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.352.975.31safe0.93–3.761.41–4.522.35–8.28safer0.54–4.150.98–4.951.53–9.10actual4.001.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.29 0.10–2.55 | 1.00 | 1.17 0.31–2.03 0.07–2.28 | 2.00 | 2.50 0.68–4.32 0.17–4.83 | 3.00 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.61 2.75–6.46 2.25–6.96 | 2.00 | 3.82 2.12–5.53 1.65–6.00 | 6.00 | 8.43 4.87–11.99 3.90–12.96 | 8.00 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 14.19 10.49–17.90 9.46–18.93 | 6.00 | 12.17 8.80–15.55 7.86–16.48 | 18.00 | 26.37 19.28–33.45 17.32–35.41 | 24.00 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 8.87 6.35–11.38 5.49–12.25 | 4.00 | 7.81 5.51–10.11 4.71–10.91 | 10.00 | 16.68 11.86–21.49 10.20–23.15 | 14.00 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 4.62 3.04–6.21 2.50–6.74 | 2.00 | 3.33 1.92–4.75 1.43–5.23 | 4.00 | 7.96 4.96–10.95 3.94–11.98 | 6.00 | 61% 13% 26% |
| Corners | 5.41 3.20–7.61 2.60–8.21 | 5.00 | 4.83 2.85–6.80 2.31–7.34 | 8.00 | 10.23 6.05–14.41 4.91–15.55 | 13.00 | 51% 37% |
| Possession % | 53.15 46.83–59.47 45.24–61.07 | 40.00 | 45.74 39.42–52.06 37.83–53.66 | 60.00 | — | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 424 358–489 341–507 | 380 | 373 309–438 291–456 | 545 | 797 667–927 632–962 | 925 | 66% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.95 76.74–85.17 75.43–86.47 | — | 78.70 74.19–83.21 72.86–84.54 | — | — | — | 59% 37% |
| Fouls | 10.99 8.13–13.85 7.25–14.73 | 14.00 | 12.65 9.71–15.60 8.79–16.52 | 6.00 | 23.64 17.84–29.45 16.04–31.25 | 20.00 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.60–3.02 0.26–3.37 | 0.00 | 1.85 0.69–3.02 0.36–3.35 | 3.00 | 3.67 1.29–6.04 0.62–6.72 | 3.00 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 0.92–3.03 0.65–3.30 | 2.00 | 2.30 1.18–3.43 0.89–3.72 | 2.00 | 4.28 2.10–6.46 1.54–7.02 | 4.00 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.35 0.93–3.76 0.54–4.15 | 4.00 | 2.97 1.41–4.52 0.98–4.95 | 1.00 | 5.31 2.35–8.28 1.53–9.10 | 5.00 | 31% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.