Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Ruebyn Ricardo · England
Goals
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.262.85safe0.63–2.550.40–2.121.03–4.67safer0.37–2.810.16–2.370.52–5.18actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
56%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.633.668.29safe2.77–6.481.95–5.374.73–11.85safer2.27–6.981.48–5.843.76–12.82actual5.003.008.00
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2111.5624.77safe9.50–16.918.18–14.9417.69–31.85safer8.47–17.947.25–15.8715.72–33.81actual12.004.0016.00
Shots in box
52%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction9.178.4017.57safe6.65–11.686.10–10.7012.75–22.39safer5.79–12.555.31–11.5011.09–24.05actual6.003.009.00
Blocked shots
44%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.503.406.90safe1.92–5.081.98–4.813.90–9.89safer1.38–5.621.49–5.302.88–10.92actual1.000.001.00
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.474.7010.17safe3.26–7.672.72–6.685.98–14.35safer2.67–8.272.18–7.214.85–15.48actual5.003.008.00
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.0645.05safe48.74–61.3838.73–51.37safer47.14–62.9737.13–52.97actual63.0037.00
Passes
86%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction519395914safe454–584330–459784–1044safer436–602313–477748–1079actual622363985
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction78.3078.58safe74.09–82.5274.07–83.08safer72.78–83.8272.74–84.42
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0311.4621.49safe7.17–12.898.51–14.4015.69–27.29safer6.29–13.777.60–15.3213.88–29.09actual11.0014.0025.00
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.753.54safe0.58–3.000.59–2.921.17–5.91safer0.23–3.340.26–3.250.49–6.59actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
36%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.214.21safe0.94–3.051.09–3.332.04–6.39safer0.67–3.330.80–3.631.47–6.95actual1.004.005.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.070.10safe0.00–0.190.00–0.260.00–0.45safer0.00–0.340.00–0.400.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.442.935.37safe1.03–3.861.38–4.492.40–8.34safer0.64–4.240.95–4.921.58–9.16actual3.004.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 0.63–2.55 0.37–2.81 | 1.00 | 1.26 0.40–2.12 0.16–2.37 | 1.00 | 2.85 1.03–4.67 0.52–5.18 | 2.00 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.63 2.77–6.48 2.27–6.98 | 5.00 | 3.66 1.95–5.37 1.48–5.84 | 3.00 | 8.29 4.73–11.85 3.76–12.82 | 8.00 | 56% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 13.21 9.50–16.91 8.47–17.94 | 12.00 | 11.56 8.18–14.94 7.25–15.87 | 4.00 | 24.77 17.69–31.85 15.72–33.81 | 16.00 | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.17 6.65–11.68 5.79–12.55 | 6.00 | 8.40 6.10–10.70 5.31–11.50 | 3.00 | 17.57 12.75–22.39 11.09–24.05 | 9.00 | 52% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 1.92–5.08 1.38–5.62 | 1.00 | 3.40 1.98–4.81 1.49–5.30 | 0.00 | 6.90 3.90–9.89 2.88–10.92 | 1.00 | 44% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 5.47 3.26–7.67 2.67–8.27 | 5.00 | 4.70 2.72–6.68 2.18–7.21 | 3.00 | 10.17 5.98–14.35 4.85–15.48 | 8.00 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 55.06 48.74–61.38 47.14–62.97 | 63.00 | 45.05 38.73–51.37 37.13–52.97 | 37.00 | — | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 519 454–584 436–602 | 622 | 395 330–459 313–477 | 363 | 914 784–1044 748–1079 | 985 | 86% 14% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.30 74.09–82.52 72.78–83.82 | — | 78.58 74.07–83.08 72.74–84.42 | — | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 10.03 7.17–12.89 6.29–13.77 | 11.00 | 11.46 8.51–14.40 7.60–15.32 | 14.00 | 21.49 15.69–27.29 13.88–29.09 | 25.00 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.79 0.58–3.00 0.23–3.34 | 0.00 | 1.75 0.59–2.92 0.26–3.25 | 1.00 | 3.54 1.17–5.91 0.49–6.59 | 1.00 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.94–3.05 0.67–3.33 | 1.00 | 2.21 1.09–3.33 0.80–3.63 | 4.00 | 4.21 2.04–6.39 1.47–6.95 | 5.00 | 36% 20% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.44 1.03–3.86 0.64–4.24 | 3.00 | 2.93 1.38–4.49 0.95–4.92 | 4.00 | 5.37 2.40–8.34 1.58–9.16 | 7.00 | 33% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.