Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Matt Donohue · England
Goals
49%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.062.60safe0.58–2.510.20–1.920.78–4.42safer0.32–2.770.00–2.160.27–4.93actual6.000.006.00
Shots on target
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.073.058.12safe3.21–6.931.34–4.764.56–11.68safer2.71–7.420.87–5.233.59–12.65actual9.001.0010.00
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction14.659.3724.03safe10.95–18.365.99–12.7516.95–31.11safer9.92–19.395.06–13.6814.98–33.07actual19.008.0027.00
Shots in box
67%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction9.247.0116.25safe6.73–11.764.71–9.3111.44–21.07safer5.86–12.623.91–10.119.78–22.73actual13.004.0017.00
Blocked shots
66%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.362.767.11safe2.77–5.941.34–4.174.11–10.11safer2.24–6.480.85–4.663.09–11.13actual2.005.007.00
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.453.9310.38safe4.25–8.661.95–5.916.20–14.57safer3.65–9.251.41–6.455.07–15.70actual3.006.009.00
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction54.6944.84safe48.37–61.0038.52–51.16safer46.77–62.6036.93–52.76actual53.0047.00
Passes
77%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction486400886safe421–551335–464756–1016safer403–569318–482721–1051actual5664901056
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction83.2977.71safe79.08–87.5173.20–82.22safer77.77–88.8171.87–83.55
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6011.2820.89safe6.75–12.468.34–14.2315.09–26.69safer5.86–13.357.42–15.1513.28–28.49actual10.007.0017.00
Offsides
38%
25%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.442.88safe0.24–2.660.27–2.600.51–5.26safer0.00–3.000.00–2.930.00–5.93actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
27%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.193.73safe0.49–2.601.07–3.311.56–5.91safer0.22–2.870.78–3.601.00–6.47actual1.000.001.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.080.12safe0.00–0.190.00–0.280.00–0.46safer0.00–0.340.00–0.420.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
22%
16%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.993.245.24safe0.58–3.411.69–4.802.27–8.20safer0.19–3.801.26–5.231.45–9.02actual0.003.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.54 0.58–2.51 0.32–2.77 | 6.00 | 1.06 0.20–1.92 0.00–2.16 | 0.00 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.27–4.93 | 6.00 | 49% 25% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.07 3.21–6.93 2.71–7.42 | 9.00 | 3.05 1.34–4.76 0.87–5.23 | 1.00 | 8.12 4.56–11.68 3.59–12.65 | 10.00 | 70% 18% |
| Total shots | 14.65 10.95–18.36 9.92–19.39 | 19.00 | 9.37 5.99–12.75 5.06–13.68 | 8.00 | 24.03 16.95–31.11 14.98–33.07 | 27.00 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 9.24 6.73–11.76 5.86–12.62 | 13.00 | 7.01 4.71–9.31 3.91–10.11 | 4.00 | 16.25 11.44–21.07 9.78–22.73 | 17.00 | 67% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 4.36 2.77–5.94 2.24–6.48 | 2.00 | 2.76 1.34–4.17 0.85–4.66 | 5.00 | 7.11 4.11–10.11 3.09–11.13 | 7.00 | 66% 21% |
| Corners | 6.45 4.25–8.66 3.65–9.25 | 3.00 | 3.93 1.95–5.91 1.41–6.45 | 6.00 | 10.38 6.20–14.57 5.07–15.70 | 9.00 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 54.69 48.37–61.00 46.77–62.60 | 53.00 | 44.84 38.52–51.16 36.93–52.76 | 47.00 | — | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 486 421–551 403–569 | 566 | 400 335–464 318–482 | 490 | 886 756–1016 721–1051 | 1056 | 77% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.29 79.08–87.51 77.77–88.81 | — | 77.71 73.20–82.22 71.87–83.55 | — | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 9.60 6.75–12.46 5.86–13.35 | 10.00 | 11.28 8.34–14.23 7.42–15.15 | 7.00 | 20.89 15.09–26.69 13.28–28.49 | 17.00 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.45 0.24–2.66 0.00–3.00 | 0.00 | 1.44 0.27–2.60 0.00–2.93 | 1.00 | 2.88 0.51–5.26 0.00–5.93 | 1.00 | 38% 25% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.49–2.60 0.22–2.87 | 1.00 | 2.19 1.07–3.31 0.78–3.60 | 0.00 | 3.73 1.56–5.91 1.00–6.47 | 1.00 | 27% 21% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 1.99 0.58–3.41 0.19–3.80 | 0.00 | 3.24 1.69–4.80 1.26–5.23 | 3.00 | 5.24 2.27–8.20 1.45–9.02 | 3.00 | 22% 16% 63% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.